Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 17 (Fantasy Football)

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@ajpassman

Welcome to the TPRR report: Championship Edition. Chances are, you’re reading this article because you have successfully (perhaps luckily) weathered the fantasy storms through the playoffs and have arrived at the threshold of immortality. The #footclantitle is within your grasp. Carpe victoriam!

This article is the final installment of the season, so we’ll focus primarily on championship week and some end-of-season reflections. Last year, you asked for a scrollable list of eligible players in the TPRR report, so we added the full list at the end of the article every week. If you have ideas or suggestions for 2024, put them in the comments or let me know on Twitter/X.

This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 16 Recap

Here’s a look at Week 16’s top 20 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 15 routes run):

Week 16 targets per route run table*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Takeaways are for winners

  • The Tampa Bay offense has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy this season. Rachaad White and Mike Evans are the RB3 and WR3, respectively. Championship week might just be the time to embrace starting Chris Godwin (23% TPRR). Godwin is heavily rostered but was started in a little more than 50% of Sleeper leagues in Week 16. Evans will probably continue to get his, but Godwin is slowly eating away at the target share. Godwin has seen 11+ targets three weeks in a row.
  • The Buffalo Bills have limited Josh Allen‘s pass attempts two weeks in a row. Whether that’s strategic or a result of game script is hard to tell, but it’s a calculus that has worked. Stefon Diggs shouldn’t be on anyone’s bench even in a tough divisional matchup against New England, but Gabe Davis‘s 32% TPRR in Week 16 requires context. At this point, you start him if you don’t have a better option or if a high-ceiling flex option is your best chance at the title. Proceed with caution, but sometimes fortune favors the bold boom.
  • Tyler Lockett (31% TPRR) is back on the radar after a solid outing against Tennessee. It’s been an inconsistent season for Lockett, who hasn’t visited the end zone in six weeks, but there should be opportunity at home against a Steelers defense that just allowed 335 passing yards to Jake Browning and co.
  • My final recommendation is to start Zay Flowers (35% TPRR) against Miami in Week 17. He’s always a risk of disappearing in the Ravens’ game plan, but he’s averaging eight targets in the last four games and a 25% target share for the season.

Season Leaders

Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 16, with the minimum routes run set at 225. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.

Targets per route run season leaders table*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Season Awards

The TPRR MVP: Tyreek Hill (34.7% TPRR)

This award was a foregone conclusion from Week 1, as Tyreek Hill has occupied this spot since the beginning. When we started measuring TPRR, 20% was the initial mark for an above-average target rate. Hill has blown that out of the water.

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The Rookie of the Year Award: Puka Nacua (27% TPRR)

Puka Nacua‘s rookie season resembles the teammate we thought he was merely filling in for this season, Cooper Kupp. Kupp has returned, Matthew Stafford is slinging touchdowns, and Puka remains. He has shown a talent for earning targets which has vaulted him into the upper echelons of young wide receivers in dynasty leagues.

The Cardio Award: Jahan Dotson (13% TPRR)

I had high hopes for Jahan Dotson before the season, and I admit I was a bit overweight in my exposure to the second-year Commanders wideout. Dotson tied for fourth in the most routes run this season (580) but was 48th in targets (75).

The I’m Not Dead Yet Award: Adam Thielen (22% TPRR)

I mentioned Jahan Dotson tied for the fourth-most routes this season. He tied with none other than Adam Thielen, who amassed 127 targets on one of the worst offenses in the league.

The What Might Have Been Award AND The Route King Award: Garrett Wilson (24.4% TPRR)

With 610 routes run, Garrett Wilson leads second place (Terry McLaurin) by 25 routes through 16 weeks. For the love of football, get this man a quarterback.

The “You’re not a has-been; you’re a never was” Award: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (8.8% TPRR)

Only a handful of eligible receivers managed a sub-10% TPRR this season (see list below), but MVS is the obvious choice. He’s a perennial favorite for the Cardio Award, but our final accolade is somewhat of a career non-achievement award. Valdes-Scantling has played for two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, and fantasy managers’ hopes and dreams lie scattered along his career of empty routes. Never again.

Well, friends, that will do it for the 2023 TPRR report! Thank you for joining me again this season and for your insights and questions regarding one of my favorite metrics. See you next season, and good luck claiming that league title.

–AJ

Full TPRR List

This list includes all 104 eligible WRs with at least 225 total routes run this season.

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Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 225 Routes)
Rk Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Tyreek Hill MIA 409 142 34.72% 0
2 Davante Adams LV 500 141 28.20% 0
3 Stefon Diggs BUF 524 144 27.48% 4
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 516 141 27.33% 5
5 Keenan Allen LAC 527 144 27.32% -2
6 Jaylen Waddle MIA 385 104 27.01% -2
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL 552 149 26.99% -1
8 Puka Nacua LA 519 139 26.78% 4
9 A.J. Brown PHI 547 146 26.69% -1
10 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 515 137 26.60% 0
11 Chris Olave NO 487 129 26.49% 3
12 Justin Jefferson MIN 285 75 26.32% -1
13 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 447 116 25.95% -8
14 Rashee Rice KC 363 94 25.90% -1
15 Demario Douglas NE 262 66 25.19% 0
16 Nico Collins HST 368 92 25.00% 1
17 Mike Evans TB 474 117 24.68% -1
18 Garrett Wilson NYJ 610 149 24.43% 0
19 Cooper Kupp LA 359 86 23.96% 4
20 Diontae Johnson PIT 324 77 23.77% -1
21 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 542 128 23.62% -1
22 Kendrick Bourne NE 235 55 23.40% -1
23 Tank Dell HST 320 74 23.13% -1
24 Amari Cooper CLV 541 122 22.55% 9
25 Jayden Reed GB 346 78 22.54% 1
26 Deebo Samuel SF 352 79 22.44% 1
27 Chris Godwin TB 500 112 22.40% 1
28 Adam Thielen CAR 580 127 21.90% 2
29 Tyler Lockett SEA 499 109 21.84% 5
30 Odell Beckham Jr. BLT 282 61 21.63% -6
31 Brandon Aiyuk SF 412 89 21.60% -6
32 DJ Moore CHI 531 114 21.47% -1
33 Drake London ATL 421 89 21.14% -4
34 Christian Kirk JAX 380 80 21.05% 1
35 Curtis Samuel WAS 366 77 21.04% -3
36 D.K. Metcalf SEA 483 100 20.70% 0
37 Marquise Brown ARZ 460 94 20.43% 0
38 Jakobi Meyers LV 453 91 20.09% 2
39 Zay Jones JAX 264 53 20.08% -1
40 Calvin Ridley JAX 581 116 19.97% -1
41 Zay Flowers BLT 509 101 19.84% 10
42 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 425 84 19.76% 3
43 Josh Downs IND 454 89 19.60% 1
44 Christian Watson GB 271 53 19.56% -1
45 Terry McLaurin WAS 585 114 19.49% -4
46 Michael Thomas NO 324 63 19.44% -1
47 Dontayvion Wicks GB 258 50 19.38% -5
48 George Pickens PIT 492 95 19.31% 0
49 Tee Higgins CIN 375 72 19.20% -2
50 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 330 62 18.79% 6
51 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE 246 46 18.70% -1
52 DeVonta Smith PHI 577 107 18.54% -3
53 Courtland Sutton DEN 449 83 18.49% 0
54 Romeo Doubs GB 473 86 18.18% 1
55 Noah Brown HST 288 52 18.06% -3
56 Jerry Jeudy DEN 408 72 17.65% -2
57 Jordan Addison MIN 524 92 17.56% 2
58 Robert Woods HST 391 67 17.14% -1
59 Elijah Moore CLV 539 92 17.07% -1
60 Rashid Shaheed NO 383 64 16.71% 4
61 Tyler Boyd CIN 526 87 16.54% 0
62 Rashod Bateman BLT 297 49 16.50% 1
63 Tutu Atwell LA 376 62 16.49% -1
64 Joshua Palmer LAC 306 50 16.34% 1
65 Jonathan Mingo CAR 500 80 16.00% -5
66 DeVante Parker NE 320 49 15.31% 0
67 Hunter Renfrow LV 247 37 14.98% 2
68 Michael Gallup DAL 365 54 14.79% -1
69 Justin Watson KC 342 49 14.33% 1
70 Brandin Cooks DAL 455 65 14.29% -2
71 Gabe Davis BUF 515 73 14.17% 2
72 K.J. Osborn MIN 496 70 14.11% -1
73 Quentin Johnston LAC 403 55 13.65% 4
74 Trey Palmer TB 405 55 13.58% 5
75 Brandon Powell MIN 274 37 13.50% -1
76 Michael Wilson ARZ 355 47 13.24% -4
77 Darius Slayton NYG 479 63 13.15% -1
78 Khalil Shakir BUF 268 35 13.06% 6
79 Jauan Jennings SF 231 30 12.99% 1
80 Nelson Agholor BLT 293 38 12.97% 3
81 Jahan Dotson WAS 580 75 12.93% 0
82 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 328 42 12.80% 0
83 Jalen Tolbert DAL 243 31 12.76% 2
84 Trenton Irwin CIN 230 29 12.61% 11
85 Josh Reynolds DET 416 52 12.50% 1
86 Skyy Moore KC 289 36 12.46% 1
87 Allen Robinson II PIT 371 46 12.40% 3
88 DJ Chark Jr. CAR 429 52 12.12% 7
89 Rondale Moore ARZ 432 52 12.04% -1
90 Darnell Mooney CHI 466 55 11.80% 1
91 Isaiah Hodgins NYG 231 27 11.69% -2
92 Cedric Tillman CLV 307 33 10.75% 2
93 Chris Moore TEN 262 28 10.69% 4
94 Alec Pierce IND 554 59 10.65% 6
95 Allen Lazard NYJ 456 48 10.53% 4
95 Braxton Berrios MIA 285 30 10.53% -2
97 Van Jefferson ATL 338 34 10.06% 4
98 Jalin Hyatt NYG 341 34 9.97% 0
99 Xavier Gipson NYJ 288 26 9.03% 4
100 Donovan Peoples-Jones DET 245 22 8.98% 4
101 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 423 37 8.75% 1
102 Olamide Zaccheaus PHI 270 15 5.56% 3

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