Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the TPRR report. We’re getting back most of our fantasy stars after a tough two weeks, and Week 11 might be a welcome respite from agonizing start/sit decisions. I’m looking at you, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons, Colts, Saints, and Patriots are the teams on bye.
This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
Week 10 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 10’s top 25 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15 🎉 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Jacksonville was blown out by San Francisco in a game where Calvin Ridley (8% TPRR 📉) only saw three official targets. Christian Kirk (27.8% TPRR) has limited upside, but he continues to be a solid WR2 most weeks. If Ridley can’t get anything going against Tennessee, he’ll be hard to trust as anything more than a flyer moving forward. If you’re looking for a silver lining, Ridley did draw a few pass interference calls that could have given him a much better stat line.
- He won’t be able to help your roster this week, but Michael Pittman finished inside the top 24 for the fifth week in a row and was targeted on almost half of his routes in Week 10. With mouthwatering matchups for the fantasy playoffs (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Las Vegas), Pitty City is someone I’m targeting to add as my WR2 for the run-in.
- I’m not getting too excited about Rondale Moore (33.3% TPRR). Kyler Murray‘s return for the Cardinals was great news for Trey McBride, who is blossoming since Zach Ertz went on IR. McBride looks like a weekly TE1 for the rest of the season, while Marquise Brown should bounce back after a dud against Atlanta. Moore has never shown the ability to make his time on the field count for much, fantasy-wise.
- Noah Brown and Tank Dell rolled again in Week 10. Dell was targeted 14 times, and Brown likely benefitted from Nico Collins missing the game entirely. As long as C.J. Stroud‘s targets remain heavily consolidated to the WR position, both players should have plenty of volume to provide safe floors.
- Jordan Addison (17.1%) has been a fantasy revelation up to this point in the season, but his touchdown rate was never going to hold up. T.J. Hockenson has averaged 13.5 targets in the two weeks since Joshua “Jesus” Dobbs joined the Vikings. With a Justin Jefferson return imminent, I’m starting to get concerned about Addison’s ability to carve out a significant role for fantasy.
Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 10, with the minimum routes run set at 135. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Demario Douglas (24.2% TPRR) has seemingly emerged as the top receiver in New England. That honor doesn’t carry much upside, but Douglas has quietly provided a decent floor as a flex-worthy consideration. The Patriots are on bye in Week 11, and Douglas might have a new quarterback looking his way in Bailey Zappe.
- Have the Broncos started to hit a stride? For all the fantasy vitriol aimed his way, Courtland Sutton (18.8% TPRR) has been – and should continue to be – a steady fantasy contributor this season. Sutton has a plus matchup against Minnesota in Week 11.
- Diontae Johnson (26% TPRR) had been on a roll since his return from Injured Reserve, but that came crashing down in a game where Pittsburgh leaned on its running game. With Cleveland next on the docket, Kenny Pickett may struggle to move the ball again.
- Ja’Marr Chase (24.9% TPRR) shows up on the list, but take it as a reminder that TPRR doesn’t tell the whole story. As long as Chase doesn’t face any lingering issues from his back injury, he’s going to be just fine.
- Romeo Doubs (20% TPRR) scored again in Week 10, but his role in Green Bay’s offense is muddy. Doubs is competing with Christian Watson and rookie Jayden Reed for targets in an offense that doesn’t seem like it can support multiple receivers in a given week.
Full TPRR List
This list includes all WRs with at least 135 routes run on the season.
|Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 135 Routes)|
|3||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||294||83||28.23%||0|
|18||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||371||92||24.80%||3|
|46||Odell Beckham Jr.||BLT||178||34||19.10%||-1|
|66||Calvin Austin III||PIT||167||26||15.57%||2|
|73||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||198||29||14.65%||-10|
|91||DJ Chark Jr.||CAR||257||31||12.06%||1|
|94||Allen Robinson II||PIT||251||29||11.55%||-6|