Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 11 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the TPRR report. We’re getting back most of our fantasy stars after a tough two weeks, and Week 11 might be a welcome respite from agonizing start/sit decisions. I’m looking at you, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons, Colts, Saints, and Patriots are the teams on bye.

This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a playerโ€™s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 10 Recap

Here’s a look at Week 10’s top 25 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum ๐ŸŽ‰ 15ย  ๐ŸŽ‰ routes run):

TPRR-Wk10-top25*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Takeaways

  • Jacksonville was blown out by San Francisco in a game where Calvin Ridley (8% TPRR ๐Ÿ“‰)ย  only saw three official targets. Christian Kirk (27.8% TPRR) has limited upside, but he continues to be a solid WR2 most weeks. If Ridley can’t get anything going against Tennessee, he’ll be hard to trust as anything more than a flyer moving forward. If you’re looking for a silver lining, Ridley did draw a few pass interference calls that could have given him a much better stat line.
  • He won’t be able to help your roster this week, but Michael Pittman finished inside the top 24 for the fifth week in a row and was targeted on almost half of his routes in Week 10. With mouthwatering matchups for the fantasy playoffs (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Las Vegas), Pitty City is someone I’m targeting to add as my WR2 for the run-in.
  • I’m not getting too excited about Rondale Moore (33.3% TPRR). Kyler Murray‘s return for the Cardinals was great news for Trey McBride, who is blossoming since Zach Ertz went on IR. McBride looks like a weekly TE1 for the rest of the season, while Marquise Brown should bounce back after a dud against Atlanta. Moore has never shown the ability to make his time on the field count for much, fantasy-wise.
  • Noah Brown and Tank Dell rolled again in Week 10. Dell was targeted 14 times, and Brown likely benefitted from Nico Collins missing the game entirely. As long as C.J. Stroud‘s targets remain heavily consolidated to the WR position, both players should have plenty of volume to provide safe floors.
  • Jordan Addison (17.1%) has been a fantasy revelation up to this point in the season, but his touchdown rate was never going to hold up. T.J. Hockenson has averaged 13.5 targets in the two weeks since Joshua “Jesus” Dobbs joined the Vikings. With a Justin Jefferson return imminent, I’m starting to get concerned about Addison’s ability to carve out a significant role for fantasy.

Season Leaders

Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 10, with the minimum routes run set at 135. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.

TPRR-leaders-thruWk10*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Biggest Risers

  • Demario Douglas (24.2% TPRR) has seemingly emerged as the top receiver in New England. That honor doesn’t carry much upside, but Douglas has quietly provided a decent floor as a flex-worthy consideration. The Patriots are on bye in Week 11, and Douglas might have a new quarterback looking his way in Bailey Zappe.
  • Have the Broncos started to hit a stride? For all the fantasy vitriol aimed his way, Courtland Sutton (18.8% TPRR) has been โ€“ and should continue to be โ€“ a steady fantasy contributor this season. Sutton has a plus matchup against Minnesota in Week 11.

Biggest Fallers

  • Diontae Johnson (26% TPRR) had been on a roll since his return from Injured Reserve, but that came crashing down in a game where Pittsburgh leaned on its running game. With Cleveland next on the docket, Kenny Pickett may struggle to move the ball again.
  • Ja’Marr Chase (24.9% TPRR) shows up on the list, but take it as a reminder that TPRR doesn’t tell the whole story. As long as Chase doesn’t face any lingering issues from his back injury, he’s going to be just fine.
  • Romeo Doubs (20% TPRR) scored again in Week 10, but his role in Green Bay’s offense is muddy. Doubs is competing with Christian Watson and rookie Jayden Reed for targets in an offense that doesn’t seem like it can support multiple receivers in a given week.

Full TPRR List

This list includes all WRs with at least 135 routes run on the season.

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Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 135 Routes)
Rk Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Tyreek Hill MIA 272 94 34.56% 0
2 Davante Adams LV 325 95 29.23% 0
3 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 294 83 28.23% 0
4 Puka Nacua LA 328 91 27.74% 2
5 Stefon Diggs BUF 366 100 27.32% 0
6 A.J. Brown PHI 331 89 26.89% 2
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL 321 86 26.79% 8
8 Keenan Allen LAC 349 93 26.65% 6
9 Jaylen Waddle MIA 224 59 26.34% 1
10 Justin Jefferson MIN 199 52 26.13% 1
11 Cooper Kupp LA 165 43 26.06% 1
12 Diontae Johnson PIT 150 39 26.00% -8
13 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 268 69 25.75% 0
14 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 373 96 25.74% -7
15 Garrett Wilson NYJ 350 90 25.71% 3
16 Chris Olave NO 375 94 25.07% 0
17 Brandon Aiyuk SF 217 54 24.88% -8
18 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 371 92 24.80% 3
19 Mike Evans TB 273 67 24.54% 4
20 Demario Douglas NE 182 44 24.18% 6
21 Rashee Rice KC 166 40 24.10% -2
22 Tank Dell HST 241 57 23.65% 11
23 Kendrick Bourne NE 235 55 23.40% -1
24 Adam Thielen CAR 376 85 22.61% 1
25 Marquise Brown ARZ 346 77 22.25% -5
26 Nico Collins HST 240 53 22.08% 2
27 Jakobi Meyers LV 295 64 21.69% -3
28 Tyler Lockett SEA 297 64 21.55% 6
29 D.K. Metcalf SEA 270 58 21.48% 7
30 Chris Godwin TB 298 64 21.48% -3
31 Drake London ATL 280 60 21.43% -2
32 Christian Kirk JAX 313 67 21.41% 6
33 Amari Cooper CLV 317 67 21.14% -3
34 Deebo Samuel SF 161 34 21.12% -3
35 Tee Higgins CIN 233 49 21.03% 0
36 Zay Flowers BLT 319 66 20.69% 3
37 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE 161 33 20.50% -20
38 Josh Downs IND 281 57 20.28% 5
39 Robert Woods HST 212 43 20.28% -7
40 George Pickens PIT 304 61 20.07% 0
41 Romeo Doubs GB 280 56 20.00% -4
42 DJ Moore CHI 352 70 19.89% 5
43 Michael Thomas NO 324 63 19.44% 8
44 Jayden Reed GB 222 43 19.37% 6
45 Terry McLaurin WAS 401 77 19.20% 3
46 Odell Beckham Jr. BLT 178 34 19.10% -1
47 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 184 35 19.02% -6
48 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 242 46 19.01% -2
49 Curtis Samuel WAS 249 47 18.88% 0
50 Courtland Sutton DEN 293 55 18.77% 9
51 Calvin Ridley JAX 321 60 18.69% -7
52 Christian Watson GB 177 33 18.64% 2
53 Mack Hollins ATL 145 27 18.62% 0
54 Jordan Addison MIN 357 64 17.93% 1
55 Jerry Jeudy DEN 236 42 17.80% -3
56 Noah Brown HST 153 27 17.65% 9
57 Elijah Moore CLV 307 54 17.59% 0
58 Dontayvion Wicks GB 157 27 17.20% 3
59 Tutu Atwell LA 314 53 16.88% 1
60 DeVonta Smith PHI 352 59 16.76% 2
60 Tyler Boyd CIN 352 59 16.76% 9
62 Michael Gallup DAL 244 40 16.39% -4
63 Joshua Palmer LAC 237 38 16.03% 1
64 Rashod Bateman BLT 181 29 16.02% 2
65 Brandin Cooks DAL 244 39 15.98% 18
66 Calvin Austin III PIT 167 26 15.57% 2
67 Brandon Powell MIN 168 26 15.48% 0
68 Khalil Shakir BUF 136 21 15.44% #N/A
69 Rashid Shaheed NO 307 47 15.31% 8
70 Gabe Davis BUF 352 53 15.06% 2
71 K.J. Osborn MIN 325 48 14.77% -1
72 Braxton Berrios MIA 177 26 14.69% 1
73 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 198 29 14.65% -10
74 Justin Watson KC 171 25 14.62% 0
75 Jonathan Mingo CAR 301 44 14.62% 1
76 Michael Wilson ARZ 276 40 14.49% -1
77 Jalen Tolbert DAL 141 20 14.18% #N/A
78 Rondale Moore ARZ 277 39 14.08% 15
79 Skyy Moore KC 211 29 13.74% 2
80 Jahan Dotson WAS 403 55 13.65% -9
81 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 208 28 13.46% 1
82 Jauan Jennings SF 150 20 13.33% -4
83 Quentin Johnston LAC 203 27 13.30% -4
84 Nelson Agholor BLT 184 24 13.04% -5
85 Josh Reynolds DET 263 34 12.93% 0
86 DeVante Parker NE 199 25 12.56% 0
87 Darius Slayton NYG 336 42 12.50% 3
88 Allen Lazard NYJ 322 40 12.42% -1
89 Trey Palmer TB 245 30 12.24% 2
90 Trenton Irwin CIN 140 17 12.14% #N/A
91 DJ Chark Jr. CAR 257 31 12.06% 1
92 Hunter Renfrow LV 166 20 12.05% -8
93 Tyler Scott CHI 142 17 11.97% -4
94 Allen Robinson II PIT 251 29 11.55% -6
95 Darnell Mooney CHI 298 34 11.41% 0
96 Van Jefferson ATL 264 29 10.98% 0
97 Isaiah Hodgins NYG 185 20 10.81% -3
98 Chris Moore TEN 145 15 10.34% #N/A
99 Alec Pierce IND 346 33 9.54% -2
100 Jalin Hyatt NYG 212 20 9.43% -2
101 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 266 23 8.65% 0
102 Donovan Peoples-Jones DET 218 17 7.80% 0
103 Olamide Zaccheaus PHI 197 12 6.09% 0

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