Target Shares: Adjusting Our Perspectives Mid-Season (Fantasy Football)

During the off-season, we talk a lot about vacated targets. We try to get the abacus out sort out each team.  “This team lost x amount of targets… and here’s who can fill that void…”

For example, the Los Angeles Chargers had the most total vacated targets (395) of any team over the last five years. A stat I gave out a ton was the fact Josh Allen had the MOST WR targets ever vacated by a QB drafted in the top-5 for fantasy. Although lost targets give us a piece of the projection puzzle, they honestly provide us little insight into where the targets will be distributed by each team. Lost targets are descriptive of what happened the previous season but not in the least bit predictive or prescriptive for the following year.  This is essential to understand or we will just plug-and-play projections and infuse players with targets without considering the variance of passing outputs.

I’ve written about the subject a ton over the years explored the topic including Vacated Targets & Predicting the Future and Vacated Targets & the RB Position in Fantasy Football.

At this point in the season, we can see patterns, changes, and shifts in how teams have redistributed their targets. Targets are NOT always an addition/subtraction game as there is much more variables at play: new offensive coordinators and systems, injuries, rookies emerging, Veterans declining, etc.

On Monday’s Ready to Roll, the Fantasy Footballers highlighted a couple of team passing pies:

If you want access all 32 NFL team’s target shares as well as being able to filter using different timespans, our Target Breakdown tool for JointheFoot.com members is something I check weekly.

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

Cincinnati Bengals

• Early in the season, Joe Burrow was peppering his TEs. Through the 1st 3 weeks, 26% of targets went to TEs. Joe Burrow never had a season above 20% since becoming QB.
• However, since Tee Higgins returned, the targets have normalized… sort of. He’s out-targeted Ja’Marr Chase in 4 straight games.He holds a 38-30 margin during the span and is ahead in “1st Read Targets” according to FantasyPoints’ Data Suite.
• Question: Where do you see Tee Higgins ROS? Top-20 WR? Top 15?

Atlanta Falcons

• Last year, the Falcons ranked #1 in TE Target Share with a whopping 34% of the targets. Over the last month, 72% of targets to WRs, #2 in the NFL. Their 27% increase is the largest of ANY TEAM over the last DECADE.
• We’ve seen TWO WRs emerge in ATL: Drake London– WR3 in fantasy averaging 8.9 targets per game, Darnell Mooney– WR15 in fantasy averaging 7.6 targets per game
• Question: Is there room for 3 pass-catchers in ATL? Kyle Pitts?

Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Arthur Smith effect is real. The Steelers are tied for the lowest WR Target Share and we’ve seen a major boost for the TEs
• Question: How does Russell Wilson change your outlook for George Pickens?
• He was a Checkdown Charlie last year in Denver with the highest check down rate (18%) in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers

• With CMC out, 49ers increased their WR target share to the 2nd highest of the Shanahan era.
• Despite ranking 2nd in total passing yards and 3rd in Yards per Attempt, their WR room has been a weekly roulette.
• Question: With Brandon Aiyuk on IR, who will step up? Jauan Jennings? Ricky Pearsall?

New York Giants

• This offense looks completely different than a year ago thanks to rookie Malik Nabers looking like a true alpha.
• The Giants lead the NFL in WR target market share.
• Question: Is there room for a 2nd WR (Wan’Dale Robinson or Darius Slayton) in NYG for fantasy?

Miami Dolphins

• Last year, 68% of the targets went to the WRs, tied for 2nd HIGHEST in the NFL. However, we can’t blame the QBs as the comparison (Weeks 1-2 with Tua: 52%, Weeks 3-7- 59%) reveals a change in approach.
• They’ve had 18(!) different players see a target through the 1st seven weeks of the season. For context, the league average is 12.3 at this point. KC only one close at 16. Last year, Miami had only 15 for the entire season!
  
• Question: With Tua hopefully returning this week, does the WR target share shift back to its 2023 status?

Tennessee Titans

• The Titans have basically the EXACT same target distribution as last year.
• Despite spending a ton of money “upgrading” the offensive weapons and a new offensive coordinator, they rank 31st in yards per play and 26th in points per game.
  
• Question: With DeAndre Hopkins on to KC, how does the team’s passing pie shift in the coming weeks?