Six Shocking Stats from the 2023 Fantasy Football Season
Each February, the Fantasy Footballers put together a list of shocking stats from the previous season to remind us of certain performances, give context for their fantasy output, and, above all else, make you question if this whole thing was made up.
This article is a recap of the Shocking Stats from 2023 episode and a dive deeper into some of the notes from our “Show Doc”.
1. Playing the Slot Machine
Lamar Jackson’s MVP season wasn’t his most statistically impressive season.
- 2019 MVP– 3127/36/6 + 1206 & 7 on the ground
- 2023 MVP– 3678/24/7 + 821 & 5 on the ground
However, Jackson was almost perfect when targeting a Ravens pass-catcher in the slot in 2023. His numbers (16 passing TDs/ ZERO INTs/134.58 Passer Rating) all ranked #1 in the NFL as the Ravens were the only team in the NFL without an INT here. In his MVP season, all six of his INTs came when targeting the slot.
59% of Ravens’ passing TDs went to players lined up in the slot, the highest in the NFL.
However, only 11 passing TDs went to non-slot pass-catchers. That ranked 26th in the NFL, one fewer than the lowly Cardinals who had arguably the league’s worst WR corps.
Follow-up Question: Will teams adjust to this Todd Monken offense in 2024?
In the AFC Championship game versus the Chiefs, the Ravens tried to double down with 45% of their targets funneled to the SLOT compared to their season average of 35%. Lamar went 8-for-14 for 145 & an INT and zero TDs in the slot as the Ravens were ousted.
2. NFL Draft Gold
For the 9th straight year, a team drafting in the top-8 of the NFL Draft also won their division.
The Houston Texans went from 3-13-1 to an AFC South-winning 10-7 thanks to C.J. Stroud and new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Eight of those nine were in the top-5 of the Draft and these teams improved by 6.7 wins on average.
Follow-Up Question: Give your guess for 2024.
3. Command and Conquered
The Washington Commanders became the 1st NFL team since 2015 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and yet NOT contribute a top-20 RB, a top-24 WR, or a top-12 TE.
Follow-up Question: If the Commanders get a rookie QB at No. 2 overall, will any Commander option be worth the investment in fantasy?
4. Time to Wave the White Flag?
Rachaad White finished as the RB7 on the season but some of his efficiency numbers were concerning. His 3.64 yards per carry is the lowest for a top-15 RB over the last 5 years. His 0.70 fantasy points per opportunity was below the league average.
For context, 0.75 is the average among top-50 fantasy RBs over the last five years. I looked at the 14 RBs who finished top-10 BUT below league average in fantasy points per opportunity. Like White, they had a good fantasy finish but their fantasy points per opportunity were league-average or worse.
What did they do the next year?
13 of the 14 dropped in fantasy points per game! The average loss was -3.4 fantasy points per game. Only 3 of them remained in the top 10: 2020 Nick Chubb, 2021 Ezekiel Elliott, and 2023 Derrick Henry, three outlier TD guys.
Follow-up Question: Do you view White as a fringe RB1 this next year?
5. Let James Cook
James Cook totaled 1,567 yards from scrimmage, 3rd in the NFL behind only Christian McCaffrey & Breece Hall. As mentioned on the TRUTH episodes, Cook has a TD problem called Josh Allen. Cook became one of five RBs Since 2000 to finish as a top-12 RB with 2 or fewer rushing TDs.
Cook had only five total carries inside the 5 compared to Josh Allen‘s 14 which resulted in eight rushing TDs. Two more TDs and Cook would have jumped up two spots to be RB9 above Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in terms of fantasy finish
Follow-up Question: Will he ever see 5+ rushing TDs on the ground? What is his ceiling capped at?
6. The Piiiiiiitts
This first stat is from Joe Beldner in the 25 TE Stats article. Despite playing only 10 games, Mark Andrews outscored Kyle Pitts by 2.1 fantasy points. Shockingly, Pitts led all tight ends in Air Yards (1,029 yards) and he finished with the highest aDOT (12.0) among qualifying tight ends. Despite these statistics, his most yards gained on a play was only 39 yards. Teammate Jonnu Smith had two plays that resulted in 50+ yards.
Pitts did rank 4th among TEs in slot fantasy points & slot fantasy points per target.
34% of Atlanta Falcons targets went to TEs (#1 in the NFL) and new Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was quoted recently saying Kyle Pitts & Bijan Robinson have “formational versatility”. The Rams systems he was part of ran heavily 3WRs; will Pitts be used primarily as a slot WR?
Follow-Up Question: In dynasty leagues, is there any hope entering Year 4?