Risk Baked Into ADP: TEs (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the Risk Bakery series finale. In case you’ve missed the previous three articles, we’ve been highlighting some players who are considered risky picks by the fantasy football community. In most cases, the generally negative perception of these “avoid-at-all-cost” players drops their ADP to a point where they become valuable assets and their risk gets compensated by their low price.

We’ve already discussed running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks. Now let’s talk about tight ends. There might be no riskier position in fantasy. Even the top options like Travis Kelce (or Sam Laporta this year) can be considered risky since they demand such a high investment. But we’re here to take a look at some TEs that many people are actively avoiding but might actually be good picks at their current ADP. 

Let’s turn on the oven and see what’s inside. If you want a complete overview of every player’s risk, don’t forget to check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s detailed rankings in the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit.

David Njoku – Cleveland Browns

After many years of waiting for him to show up, David Njoku finally had an excellent 2023 season. He surpassed 100 fantasy points for the first time and had the most targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns of his career. So why is he considered “risky”? Well, most of his production happened with Joe Flacco as his quarterback. Deshaun Watson will be back at the helm this season and Njoku was far less productive with him. But let’s take a deeper look into Njoku’s season. Yes, he was great with Flacco, but his usage increased several weeks before Flacco’s Week 13 arrival. He was the TE1 from Weeks 6 to 17. Deshaun Watson played the first three games of the season and didn’t target Njoku more than four times. Then he missed some time and came back for two more games in Weeks 9 and 10, in which the tight end had six and nine targets. Njoku’s utilization wasn’t Flacco’s idea. It was a well-designed strategy that came from higher up. Njoku’s athleticism is unquestionable, and even with Voldemort as QB, he should have a very healthy volume in 2024. Even if he somehow doesn’t, TE9 is not an expensive price to pay.

T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings

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I completely understand if you want to avoid T.J. Hockenson this year. He might be the riskiest TE right now. He still has a long way to go to be fully recovered from his knee injury and we might not see him in action until November. If that wasn’t enough, he lost his trustworthy QB, Kirk Cousins. Fortunately, this whole situation is very well baked into his TE11 ADP. Hockenson started out by having a great 2023 season. If he hadn’t torn his ACL and MCL, he would have had the chance to finish as the TE1. Now he’ll start the season injured and that obviously isn’t ideal. But there’s another way to look at it: if your league has an IR spot, you should consider drafting him in the late rounds and have a potential top-tier TE for the second half of the season.

Evan Engram – Jacksonville Jaguars

Why is everyone fading last season’s TE2? Is it the stench from several previous seasons disappointing fantasy managers? Is it the fact that he scored only four touchdowns? Is it the drops? Is it the arrival of new offensive weapons to Jacksonville? There seem to be enough reasons for drafters to consider Evan Engram a risky player. But this TE8 ADP is an overreaction.

I wouldn’t worry too much about the amount of touchdowns. On the contrary, the fact that he finished as the second-best tight end while scoring fewer TDs than the rest of the top eight makes me even more excited about his fantasy outlook because it means he has enough volume secured to repeat such a great season and even surpass it if he scores some more TDs. He was the most-targeted player in Jacksonville and the most-targeted tight end in the NFL. Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis should inherit Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones’ WR targets, but Trevor Lawrence loves looking Evan Engram’s way and that shouldn’t change. At his current price, any potential risk has completely evaporated.

Brock Bowers – Las Vegas Raiders

All rookies are risky, but rookie tight ends carry an extra risk. They usually take some years to develop and evolve into their final NFL form. We don’t get a Sam Laporta every season. Besides, Brock Bowers didn’t land in the best spot for a rookie TE. Michael Mayer had a decent 2023 season and the fantasy world was waiting to see him flourish in his sophomore year. Now, we have too many potential star tight ends with important draft capital in Las Vegas. However, Brock Bowers should emerge as the starter at some point. The Raiders have one of the most favorable schedules for tight ends. The question is: when will they give Bowers the main role? It might not even happen this season. That’s why I consider he’s correctly priced as the 105th overall pick. If you take him as the 12th tight off the board, you’re being the last guy in your league picking a TE. That takes all the risk out of it. So if you want to bet on Bowers’ talent, go for it. It’s not as risky as it seems.

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Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears

There’s a lot of uncertainty around Cole Kmet right now. His team has a new offensive coordinator, his quarterback is a promising but inexperienced rookie, and a couple of relevant additions to the WR corps have been brought in. On top of that, last season the Bears were among the bottom three offenses in passing volume, with only 477 total targets. Still, Cole Kmet managed to claim 90 of those targets and average a decent 9.8 yards per reception. It’s difficult to predict what will happen to him in 2024 with so many changes in Chicago. Caleb Williams’ playing style should increase the passing volume, but D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze will demand a significant slice of the pie. On the other hand, tight ends usually work as security blankets for rookie quarterbacks. Considering all these variables, there’s a path for Kmet to maintain his volume and finish around where he did last season. There’s some risk, yes, but it’s more than baked into his TE15 ADP. You can spend a very late pick on him and see how things pan out in Chicago before deciding what to do with him.