Risk Baked Into ADP: RBs (Fantasy Football)

Every season, drafters avoid picking certain players because they’re considered “risky.” Maybe they get injured too often, have off-field issues, or are reaching the proverbial age cliff. Whatever the reason, we all have a list of players we simply don’t want to draft.

But in many cases, this risk is already baked into the player’s ADP. Fantasy managers get smarter every season, and that’s why they let these “risky” players fall a couple of rounds, where gambling on them isn’t that much of a risk. Take Alvin Kamara for example. He started last season as a 27-year-old RB serving a four-game suspension and that was enough for him to drop all the way down to the RB26 (68th overall ADP), going behind names like Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers. He wasn’t an expensive gamble at all and he finished as the RB14 (RB5 in fantasy points per game).

So without further ado, welcome to the Risk Bakery. A series of articles in which we will get our hands deep into positional dough to try to find players whose risk is already baked into their ADP and maybe change how we feel about them this draft season, starting with running backs.

Can you smell it? The RB risk oven is ready. Let’s see what we find in it. And don’t forget Andy, Mike, and Jason include a risk gauge in their Ultimate Draft Kit rankings, which will be available on June 1st.

RBs Whose Risk Is Already Baked Into Their ADP

Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns

After a wonderful 2022 campaign, last year everyone was eager to draft Nicholas Chubb. But he suffered a devastating knee injury in Week 2 and his season was over. Now it seems nobody wants to even get close to him in fantasy. Yes, he is over 28 years old now. And yes, he still hasn’t fully recovered. But hey, he should return to the lead back role in Cleveland as soon as he gets healthy and he still is the same Nick Chubb who finished the 2022 season as the RB3 in rushing yards and rushing attempts, and as the RB5 in rushing TDs and fantasy points. Getting that kind of ceiling in the back of the 8th round is definitely a bargain and definitely not as risky as some people think. 

James Conner – Arizona Cardinals

 

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Current ADP	Overall	2023 Finish
RB24	79	RB15

The words “risk” and “Conner” have been written and spoken together during his whole career. He misses some games every season and he is 29 years old. He is the definition of a risky running back. But he is also in one of the best situations in all of fantasy football: He is the owner of the Cardinals backfield with very little competition, in an offense that is expected to take a leap forward this season with a healthy Kyler Murray and stud rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. If Conner stays healthy (and that’s a big “if”), he can be great for fantasy. So yes, he is risky but after finishing as the RB15 without playing the whole season, his risk is very well baked into his RB24 ADP. 

Austin Ekeler – Washington Commanders

At 29 years of age, it seems Austin Ekeler’s best years are behind him now. His efficiency last season was not great. He was neither Awesome nor Excellent. But let’s face it. We’re not paying the “Awesome Excellent” price now. RB29 is a very reasonable ADP for one of the best pass-catching running backs the NFL has ever seen. The Commanders were the team with the most pass attempts in 2023, so Ekeler’s abilities might be very useful and valuable for fantasy, even if he has to share the backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. So yes, he is on a new team, with a rookie QB, run by a new coaching staff. There are question marks about how he will be used, but it’s a fair price for those kinds of question marks.

Raheem Mostert – Miami Dolphins

Just like last season, most fantasy managers consider Raheem Mostert a risky, old player who should just hang the cleats and let De’Von Achane take over. I asked around why people are fading Mostert and the most common answer was: “I’d rather take Achane.” This is crazy. Last season, when both backs were healthy, they shared the workload almost evenly. Right now Achane is going 66 spots earlier than Mostert. Why would Mike McDaniel change that fast-paced formula that worked so well? Of course, we should expect a natural regression in the touchdown department, but if what you want is to avoid risk in this backfield, you should definitely take the way cheaper RB who finished as the RB2 last season.

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Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos

After a very inefficient 2023 campaign in which he averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt, Javonte Williams left us missing the explosiveness he showed during his first two seasons. But he had the volume (217 carries and 58 targets in 16 games) and he should maintain it. His inefficiency and the threat of Jaleel McLaughlin stealing some of his volume are the main reasons to consider him risky. But that risk is perfectly baked in his RB25 ADP because he is way more talented than McLaughlin and we’ve seen what he is capable of doing. In an anchor RB roster build, I’d be willing to give Javonte a shot as my RB2 at his current price.

RBs Whose Risk ISN’T Baked Into Their ADP

Sometimes the hype and excitement about certain players in certain situations keeps them above a reasonable ADP. Such is the case for Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. Both players landed on ideal spots for their fantasy outlooks, but a running back changing teams always carries a good amount of risk. Henry is 30 years old, and even though he is an outlier, we can’t be absolutely sure about him having a monster load of volume. Jacobs is four years younger, but the same uncertainty applies to him. Of course, a very high finish is within their range of outcomes, but right now they’re both being drafted as RB1s. Unless they somehow fall a round or two in your particular draft, I would suggest taking less risky players in the early rounds.

Aaron Jones is another good example. The fantasy world is divided on him now. Some people think he’ll share a 50-50 backfield with Ty Chandler and some others believe he’ll get the RB1 role. The problem is that the Vikings have turned into a much more pass-oriented offense than it was back in the Dalvin Cook days. He still showed some efficiency last year, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt (the same as Isiah Pacheco, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift), but he’s going as the RB18 now. That might be too expensive for a 29-year-old veteran who finished as the RB36 last season and is now changing teams.