Respect Your Elders: Tyler Lockett (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the second installment of this series that aims to pay some respect to those older players who are generally avoided in drafts mainly because of their age, even though there are reasons to still consider them valuable for fantasy football.
Last week we highlighted Raheem Mostert as a great example of how ageism can cloud fantasy managers’ judgment about some relevant players just because they’ve passed the positional average age cliff. Now we’ll talk about a wide receiver who has been utterly disrespected during his whole career: Seattle Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett.
If you want to check out what Andy, Mike, and Jason have think of Tyler Lockett and in what tier they have him ranked among the rest of WRs, don’t forget to get the UDK+.
How Is He Being Disrespected?
Tyler Lockett must be used to being disrespected by now. He broke out in 2018, and the Seahawks drafted DK Metcalf the next season. Since then, he has always been drafted significantly lower than his previous fantasy finish.
Year
Fantasy Finish
Next Season ADP
2018
WR15
WR20
2019
WR14
WR20
2020
WR9
WR19
2021
WR13
WR42
2022
WR13
WR26
2023
WR33
WR51
He has been called an old player for so long that it feels like he’s older than he actually is. He will start the season at 31 years old and fantasy managers are fading him into undrafted territory mainly because there’s a younger, second-year wideout also competing for targets.
Fantasy managers are always thirsty for younger players’ breakouts. It’s understandable. A lot of us drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season in our dynasty rookie drafts and spent the whole season waiting for him to take off. A lot of analysts are expecting him to break out in 2024 and it could happen. But should we be disqualifying Tyler Lockett completely because of this? Let’s dig a little deeper into his situation.
A Not-So-Respectable 2023 Season
Let’s get the bad out of the way. 2023 was arguably Lockett’s worst season since he broke out. His fantasy production was pretty inconsistent. Even though he finished as the WR33, he was 43rd in fantasy points per game.
But the opportunity was there. He was inside the top 24 in routes run with 550 routes. He had a very decent 22.3% target share and 1,322 air yards. He even had two more total targets than DK Metcalf. Yes, Metcalf missed one game but the point is that Lockett’s volume was pretty healthy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had only 93 targets in 17 games and was far less involved in route participation.
The real problem was Tyler Lockett’s efficiency. He was the WR60 in fantasy points per target, averaging only 1.66. But was it his fault? Was it because of his age? Metcalf finished 34th and JSN 63rd in this same metric, so even considering Metcalf as the team’s expected alpha WR, we can conclude that none of the Seahawks’ wide receivers’ efficiency was great.
So yes, there are reasons to disrespect what Tyler Lockett did last season. But if that’s the case, we should be disrespecting the team’s passing game as a whole. Geno Smith didn’t have a good season, but we know he’s capable of throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30 TDs with this offense. So there’s hope for a bounce-back season from Geno.
Possible Signs of Decay
Tyler Lockett reached his peak in receiving yards and yards per reception in 2021. Since then, his production has been decreasing. In 2022, he turned 30, and since that’s the feared age cliff for wide receivers, the ageist alarms started to sound. But there are other factors we have to consider here. 2022 was also the year when Geno Smith joined the team. So a change in productivity was expected.
Many analysts talk about Tyler Lockett as a player who is entering an older, less athletic phase of his career. I wouldn’t be too sure about that. A good way to assess a wideout’s athleticism is to check his air yards. In 2022 and 2023, Tyler Lockett had the third and fourth-most air yards of his long career. In both seasons the ball traveled over 1,300 yards in his direction. Add this to the fact that he was a top-20 WR in routes run, and you get the formula for an athletic WR that can still run at a top level. How has his athleticism endured the passing of time this well? Partly because he is a master of avoiding getting injured. That’s a rare ability in the NFL.
Staying healthy in the NFL takes a lot of luck. But it's also an ability. One that Tyler Locket has mastered.pic.twitter.com/D9u6OI0v5G
— Javier Manzanera (@elmantis) August 1, 2024
His volume hasn’t shown signs of decay either. In each of those two seasons, he had more targets and receptions than he had in that super-productive 2021 campaign. Even with the addition of such a promising rookie prospect like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lockett remained one of the two focal points of the Seahawks’ aerial attack.
What to Expect in 2024
The biggest headache for fantasy managers rostering Seahawks’ wide receivers – and this goes back to the Russell Wilson years – is volatility. Ever since Metcalf joined the team, both he and Lockett have had their fair share of boom and bust games. This WR corps is one of the most volatile in the NFL. This will continue to happen and the very possible increase in JSN’s involvement will make it even worse. That’s just something we should always expect from this team and it’s one of the reasons why drafting the most expensive one of the lot (DK Metcalf) is a bit risky.
However, there should be an overall increase in passing volume in Seattle. Last season they were a middle-of-the-pack offense in total targets, even though both Metcalf and Lockett were inside the top 24 in targets. New offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, is known for running a pass-happier offense, so maybe Lockett’s opportunities could be pushed closer to WR1 territory.
His target share shouldn’t be too different from what it was last season. Despite all the ageists’ attacks, we’ve already stated that Lockett is still an athletic WR capable of earning targets and stretching the field when needed.
Conclusion
It’s complicated to put any faith in a player when the general opinion is against him. But it’s in moments like these when great opportunities arise in fantasy football. Tyler Lockett is virtually free in fantasy drafts and there’s almost no way he doesn’t outperform his WR51 ADP.
I’m not asking you to believe in him blindly. I’m just giving you enough arguments to show him some respect by giving him the benefit of the doubt. If despite all this evidence in his favor he turns out to be washed, you will be able to drop him without any regret. Take him as a late-round, risk-free pick that might return substantial value.