Respect Your Elders: Raheem Mostert (Fantasy Football)
Ageism is a disease that has been plaguing fantasy football for years. Every season some players are avoided or even forgotten in drafts simply because they’re older than what is generally considered the age cliff for a certain position. However, some athletes are built differently (or simply used by their team differently) and can still provide considerable value past that feared age mark.
Last season I was called a madman for defending Adam Thielen in the Fantasy Court as a player that could still return massive value at his WR53 ADP. Nobody wanted him. It was extremely uncool to defend him and yes, it wasn’t an exciting draft pick. But he finished as the WR25 and from Weeks 1-11 he maintained himself inside the top-12. Old man Thielen delivered!
That’s how I came up with the idea to dedicate a short series of articles to pay some respect to those older players who are being unfairly undervalued by the fantasy football community and show why buying the dip on some of them can be a very smart late-round draft move.
We’ll kick off this series with a very disrespected elder running back: Raheem Mostert from the Miami Dolphins.
If you want to check out what Andy, Mike, and Jason think of Raheem Mostert and in what tier they have him ranked, don’t forget to get the UDK+.
How Is He Being Disrespected?
The 32-year-old Raheem Mostert is being drafted as the RB27 right now. He is the 86th player off the board. For running backs, 28 is the age established as the famous cliff where everything starts to crumble production and efficiency-wise. He passed that mark a long time ago but he hasn’t shown any signs of decay.
In fact, he just had the best season of his whole career. He broke personal records in almost every relevant metric and finished as the RB2 in fantasy football (in half-PPR scoring). But ageists don’t seem to care about this. They just see an old man getting in the way of younger players. It feels like déjà vu from last year when he was also left for dead in drafts. Last season’s second-best RB is being drafted in the seventh round? This is an amazing opportunity for smart, non-ageist fantasy managers. Let’s find out why.
A More Than Respectable 2023 Season
Mostert has battled with some injuries throughout his career, but in 2023 he stayed healthy for most of the season. He played 15 games enduring a lot of heavy-duty contact, constantly breaking tackles and making his way into the end zone. And oh boy did he visit paydirt. He scored 21 total touchdowns, which more than doubled his previous career high.
He had 234 touches, ran for more than 1,000 yards, and added 175 receiving yards. Yes, we could say his performance was boosted by playing in a high-powered offense but he was more than capable of keeping up with the fast pace, showing no signs of being old or washed.
And if you want to isolate his production from the team’s momentum, his per-attempt statistics were quite efficient. He was a top-12 RB in yards per attempt among players who had at least 40 attempts and he also finished 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt.
Yes, De’Von Achane‘s yards per carry were insanely higher, but comparing both players’ volumes, Raheem Mostert was still the owner of the majority of opportunities with 53.3% vs Achane’s 40.6%. They are an amazing 1-2 punch combo.
Possible Signs of Decay
Despite his age, Raheem Mostert is still one of the fastest and most agile players in the NFL. According to Next Gen Stats, his 43-yard TD run against the Patriots in Week 2 recorded a 21.62 mph speed, one of the fastest in the season and the third-fastest of his career (his other two were so otherworldly fast that they still rank first and second among all ball carriers over the past seven seasons).
This is the play in which Raheem Mostert last year registered the third-fastest speed of his career (21.62 mph) at 31 years of age. Now he's the 86th player off the board after finishing as the RB2 (half PPR). Huge bargain.pic.twitter.com/i4IIYj8ZLm
— Javier Manzanera (@elmantis) July 25, 2024
At 32 years of age, Pro Football Network has Mostert ranked as the fourth-fastest player in the NFL ahead of the 2024 campaign. So we can rest assured that he’s still got it.
Now let’s talk about injuries. Raheem Mostert missed the last two games of the regular season due to a grade 1 knee strain and a grade 1 pedal ankle sprain. Mostert has suffered eight knee/ankle injuries over his career and has missed significant time in the past. Of course, any player has the risk of getting injured, especially those whose job description includes breaking tackles. But luckily these 2023 injuries weren’t serious so at least there’s not much to worry about for now in the injury department.
What to Expect in 2024
So now that we established that Raheem Mostert had an awesome 2023 season and that he still has juice in the tank, let’s get realistic. 21 is a crazy amount of total touchdowns. But at his current ADP, even if he scores half as much he will deliver great value. Having said that, his usage inside the five-yard line tells me he will once again visit the end zone pretty often.
Now let’s talk about the 7.8 yards per attempt elephant in the room: De’Von Achane. According to ADP, the fantasy community clearly expects him to take over the backfield. But that’s not what Mike McDaniel wants. He wants to keep the machine going at full speed by alternating backs. He even drafted Jaylen Wright, another fast RB to add some depth in case of injury. We’ve talked about Mostert dealing with injuries in the past. But guess what? Wright’s build and skills are more similar to Achane’s than Mostert’s. And Achane has shown more recent signs of injury proneness, so this addition seems to be more of an insurance policy in case the younger back of the tandem goes down.
What I’m trying to say is that there are no logical reasons for the Dolphins to lean more heavily on one of their two RBs. There should be enough volume and red zone touches for both of them because it’s already a proven strategy. Despite this very possible 50/50 work split, there’s a big difference in ADP between Achane and Mostert and the reason for that is ageism.
In Conclusion
It’s difficult to believe in a 32-year-old running back. But every now and then, superior athletes break the mold. Raheem Mostert is not a common human being. His speed and ability are not normal for his age. When drafting, don’t think about his age. Think about what he just did a few months ago. I’ve said it already but this is the main takeaway I want you to remember: Last season’s RB2 is now the 86th player off the board. This kind of bargain is rare. Do yourself a favor and draft this respectable veteran in the seventh round.