Red Zone Report: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the sixth Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Week six had tons of exciting football, but also a fair amount of impactful injuries. Let’s take a look at offenses across the league.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
As always, let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
Tua Tagovailoa should be returning soon, so I expect the Miami offense to resurge out of their current position. Cleveland remains the worst offense outside of the red zone. A potential quarterback change may be the only thing that can help them now. Buffalo’s impressive offense will look to continue its success from the 2024 season tonight against the Jets.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
Bucky Irving continued his excellent play, this time in the absence of Rachaad White. His success in close may not only lead to more red zone touches, but potentially more total touches than White once he comes back. There isn’t a clear superior back in the red zone for the Falcons, and they’ve distributed their rushes fairly evenly in close. In fact, Tyler Allgeier has more rushes in the red zone this year than his counterpart, Bijan Robinson. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting backfields from this week.
Atlanta Rushers
Starting off with the recently mentioned Atlanta backfield, it was an incredibly productive week for the crew. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier shared 13 rushes in the red zone, with four going to Robinson and the remaining 11 going to Allgeier. Of the eight rushes inside 10 yards, Robinson turned his three rushes into two touchdowns, while Allgeier turned his five rushes into one touchdown. The powerful running back duo can yield two strong fantasy performers, though Allegeier’s potential is capped due to his lack of consistent touches.
Detroit Rushers
In an absolute beatdown of “America’s team,” the Detroit Lions made a statement Sunday afternoon. Like most of the Lions’ offensive masterpieces, this started with the powerful two-headed backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. While the backfield has been known to split opportunities pretty evenly between the two, this week belonged to David Montgomery. Of the team’s five carries inside the red zone, three went to Montgomery — he converted two of these for touchdowns. Gibbs still had a solid game but failed to convert in the red zone. Given his much lower draft cost relative to Gibbs, David Montgomery looks to be a steal in 2024.
Najee Harris
Najee Harris had his best game of the season yesterday, though his red zone opportunities over the course of the season have made it incredibly difficult for him to put up consistently strong numbers for fantasy football. First off, the entire offense has only had 14 rushes inside the 10-yard line over the course of the entire season. For a power back like Harris, this highly limits his fantasy ceiling. As if his situation couldn’t get any worse, new Steelers quarterback, Justin Fields, has taken a sizable bite into these rushes, turning six opportunities into two touchdowns. After a great performance this week was heavily inflated by a 36-yard touchdown, I would be looking to sell high on Najee Harris.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this graph will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
A rare sight to see, CeeDee Lamb is at the bottom of a receiving efficiency graph. The Cowboys’ offense has not lived up to the standard set over the course of the team’s recent history. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard (who both appear in the upper right quadrant of the graph) play tonight against Buffalo. It will be interesting to see how they perform in their first game without former head coach, Robert Saleh.
George Kittle
In a very productive Thursday Night Football matchup versus the Seahawks, George Kittle and the 49ers racked up major fantasy points. Kittle was targeted twice in the red zone and converted both of these opportunities into touchdowns. Brandon Aiyuk has remained very quiet since signing a massive extension this offseason. As the current best tight end in fantasy football, Kittle has caught five touchdowns in five games, all of which were in the red zone.
Chicago Receivers
In an early morning showdown against the Jaguars, Caleb Williams and the Bears showed out in front of an international crowd. In the red zone, Cole Kmet scored on his only red zone target for an early touchdown. Keenan Allen was targeted twice in the red zone and hauled in two touchdowns. Finally, D.J. Moore recorded catches on both of his red zone targets, though he wasn’t able to score either. Caleb Williams has been massively improving recently, recording a QBR over 80 in each of his last two starts after not breaking 40 in any of his first four starts. As a result, everyone in the Bears’ offense should see increased opportunities as well as a higher quality of these opportunities.
Conclusion
As we head into the final games of the week, we will continue to analyze and research the red zone in order to find statistical advantages for fantasy football. Make sure to check back next week for the next Red Zone Report!
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit