NFL Team Performance Trends Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 7. The stats displayed in this article all reference the graphics at the end of the article. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; this term is used frequently in the article and measures how many expected points are generated from a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Offensive Takeaways
The Colts continue to roll. At the top of the league in offensive EPA/play, they face the Chargers in Week 7, who have seen a downward trend in defensive efficiency in recent weeks (see the third graphic below). Look for the Colts’ momentum to carry forward.
Two teams that are finding their groove are the Patriots and Commanders. With a 0.07 and 0.10 EPA/play, respectively, both teams have lived in the positive EPA/play realm for 3+ weeks. The Patriots face the Titans, who have a negative EPA/play defensively, and the Commanders play the Cowboys, who have the worst defensive efficiency in the league in Week 7. Start your New England and Washington players if you have them.
The Texans went into the bye week red hot (per the final chart below showing their upward spike in offensive EPA), and face a slightly above-average Seahawks team. This will be a good test of who the Texans are – expect them to perform well, though.
The Jets are nearing rock bottom. After an 0-6 start, their offensive efficiency is tumbling. Justin Fields hasn’t been a viable fantasy option; however, they face the Carolina Panthers in Week 7. The Panthers have a negative defensive EPA and have allowed decent numbers to players this year, particularly at the TE position. They allow 2.85 points per touch to TEs, so for those of you who picked up Mason Taylor, this is the week to start him.
Defensive Takeaways
The Dolphins have given up the highest points per touch to QBs (0.66) on the season. Even though they face the Browns in Week 7, Dillon Gabriel may be a viable streaming option.
The Bears also allow a large amount of points per touch to QBs (0.63) and face the Saints in Week 7. Spencer Rattler could be your guy to stream.
The Lions are struggling to defend WRs. They face the red-hot Bucs in Week 7, and despite their injuries in the receiver room, we can still expect a strong performance out of the group. Look to guys like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson to have strong fill in roles, especially if Egbuka is ruled out.
The Giants face the Broncos in Week 7, who have been killers defensively. We see an uptick in their EPA per game in the final chart below, and that they have a 0.06 EPA/play defensively on the year. This is a pretty efficient rate, and is enough to fade away from Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo a bit for Week 7.
The Patriots, Chiefs, and Bears defenses are all good defensive streaming options, as they face some of the worst offensive teams in efficiency this season: the Titans, Raiders, and Saints. While the Steelers may look like a strong streaming play for defense, it may be smart to stay away. They have a net negative EPA/play on the season defensively (-0.01), and the Bengals have seen a severe uptick in offensive efficiency via the final chart below, especially with the arrival of Joe Flacco.
