NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 6 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Washington Commanders remain at the top of the league in offensive performance. With a 0.21 EPA/play, their offensive players are a must-start. Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Robinson are all strong plays moving forward.
Cincinnati has continued to show offensive prowess — Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins put on a show last week, while Chase Brown continued to emerge as the lead back. Look for the Bengals to continue producing in fantasy.
The Buffalo Bills have struggled since Week 3 offensively — whether or not it is the fault of Josh Allen, the star QB has put up less than 20 fantasy points in the last two weeks. It is possible the lack of a true WR1 is finally catching up to them. They face the Jets in Week 6 on Monday night, which is a near must-win for both teams. Look for the Bills to turn things around offensively in this critical matchup.
The Saints have been a different team offensively since Week 2. Chris Olave has failed to produce strong numbers, with Rashid Shaheed overpowering him fantasy-wise. With Derek Carr now injured, the only trustworthy start for this offense will be Alvin Kamara.
The Bears have continued to improve offensively — they’ve almost improved 0.05 EPA/play each week! They face the Jaguars this week, who have the second-worst-performing defense in the NFL, so continue to start your Bears!
Other teams to keep an eye on:
Indianapolis Colts
With Joe Flacco at the helm, the offense has a new pace and a stronger look through the air. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman have put up improved numbers — look to start them while Flacco is playing.
Atlanta Falcons
After a record-breaking week, Kirk Cousins looks to finally be building chemistry with his receiving room. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and even Darnell Mooney are strong options in fantasy moving forward.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona continues to be a top-rated offense in the league — Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. are go-to’s in fantasy!
Defensive Takeaways
The Bengals have the worst defensive EPA/play in the league. After last week’s shootout, it is clear their defense is going to allow fantasy points to be racked up this season. They play the Giants in Week 6 — Malik Nabers is in for a strong performance.
The Jaguars and Panthers are also low performers defensively. Look for the Bears and Falcons, respectively, to put up strong fantasy numbers in Week 6.
As the top-performing defense in the NFL and coming off a bye week, the Chargers are looking at a chance for a strong defensive performance against the young Denver QB, Bo Nix.
While the Texans have been nearly neutral defensively this season at a -0.03 EPA/play, they face the Patriots this week, who will start rookie QB Drake Maye. Look for Houston to put up strong defensive numbers in fantasy this week.
Player Profiles
Tank Bigsby
Bigsby has put up very efficient numbers this season at 0.29 EPA/play. He is certainly a good option to stock on your bench, but be wary, as he may be a product of the backup effect.
Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown
While both players have come back to Earth, Chase Brown still leads the efficiency battle, and in the last two games, has led the touch battle. Look for him to continue to take the workload and start to back away from starting Moss.
Darnell Mooney
Mooney has been incredible through five weeks. He’s been a top option for Kirk Cousins and is putting up absurdly efficient numbers at 0.62 EPA/play. Look for him to be a strong flex option in fantasy.
Josh Downs
Josh Downs has been stellar through his first three weeks back from injury. Seeing a high volume and putting up 0.44 EPA/play, he is a great flex option in fantasy. 