NFL Team Performance Trends Week 6 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, we will revisit our team performance trends, seeing how each team is playing going into Week 6. These insights will help guide your start/sit decisions for fantasy; please refer to the tables and graph below for stat references in the article.
Let’s jump into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Colts continue to stay hot on offense, and Jonathan Taylor is looking like a league winner. They have the Cardinals in Week 6, who have been solid overall defensively, with a 0.02 EPA/play; luckily, their weakest spot on defense is the run game, as they allow 0.84 points per touch to RBs. While this isn’t much, it’s better than the other positions going against this Arizona squad.
The Seahawks have climbed constantly this season (see the EPA per week graph) in terms of offensive EPA. They continue to get more efficient, now sitting at a 0.09 EPA/play. While on bye in Week 6, keep them at the top of mind as one of the hottest offenses out there.
The Commanders and Dolphins are all teams that have seen positive trends in offensive efficiency as well, looking at the EPA graph below. Washington takes on Chicago in Week 6, who has been weak on defense this season. They allow a high number of points per touch to RBs and WRs specifically, so Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the Commanders receiving core should have a field day. The Dolphins, on the other hand, take on the Chargers, who have been better defensively, but have struggled against TEs, allowing 2.66 points per touch. If you thought Darren Waller was going to slow down, you’re wrong. Bet on another big week from him.
The Bills and Chargers have regressed to the mean, offensively. The Bills look to bounce back against Atlanta, who have been neutral on defense (0.0 EPA/play), while the Chargers face a very weak Miami defense. The Chargers should have a field day, including backup RB Hassan Haskins.
Can we trust the Giants’ offense? After a great first Jaxson Dart performance, New York struggled heavily against the Saints in Week 5. Their average offensive EPA/play dropped to its lowest of the season at -0.05. They face a strong Eagles defense in Week 6, so fade your Giants players there.
Defensive Takeaways
The Broncos’ defense has stifled WRs all season, allowing the lowest points per touch to receivers in the league at 2.1. Facing the Jets in Week 6, be wary of Garrett Wilson and Justin Fields’ performances.
The Chargers have an opportunity to bounce back from their struggles against the Dolphins, who have one of the weakest defenses in the NFL. They allow the most points per touch to QBs in the league at 0.70, so look for a fantastic Justin Herbert stat line to come.
The Ravens have been abysmal on defense, average -0.16 EPA/play. The crux of this is the run game. They have allowed 1.04 points per touch to RBs on the year, giving Kyren Williams and Blake Corum an opening for a big week.
Looking for a TE starts? Look towards Colston Loveland, facing a weak Commanders defense allowing 3.12 points per touch to TEs, to Hunter Henry, facing a Saints team that allows 2.87 points per touch to TEs, and to David Njoku or Harold Fannin, who play the Steelers, who allow 2.92 points per touch to TEs.
The Steelers will be a streamable defense in Week 6, as they face the Browns, who hold the worst offensive EPA/play in the league.
Comments
Decided to Stream Mac Jones over Daniel jones based on this chart.
Did yall see the movie Napoleon Dynamite? There’s a scene where Napoleon asks the chicken farmer if his chickens have large talons to which the farmer replies “what? I don’t understend a word you just said”. That’s what comes to mind when I look at the graphs and charts above- I don’t understand a word you just said.
If you’re not a Napoleon Dynamite fan (I live my life according to his beliefs and tenets) then you won’t appreciate the obscure yet humerous reference to my inability to understand your information. :)
But then I’m guessing most of your followers aren’t as dense as I am.