NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 17 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, we will be taking a look at some team performance trends heading into Week 17, for those of you who still remain in your fantasy playoffs! Let’s jump into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Bills are still rolling, leading the league in offensive EPA/play at 0.15. Josh Allen suffered a hand injury in Week 16, but don’t expect them to slow down, as they’re still playing for the one seed in the AFC and face a shaky Jets defense in Week 17.
The Packers are tied at sixth in the league for offensive EPA/play but run into the Vikings’ stout defense in Week 17. Luckily, Jordan Love and Jayden Reed put up strong performances against Minnesota earlier in the season—don’t hesitate to start your Packers in this critical division matchup.
The Cowboys’ offense is rolling. Their cumulative EPA chart has shot above zero EPA, showing their consistency in recent weeks. They play the Commanders with nothing to lose in Week 17, so look for guys like CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle to put up strong numbers. Cooper Rush could even be a solid plug-and-play at QB.
The Lions take on the 49ers, whose defense has severely struggled in recent weeks with their cumulative EPA dropping below zero on the season indicating those struggles. They’ve put up 0.13 EPA/play on offense, and the loss of David Montgomery didn’t seem to affect them.
The Chargers take on a struggling Patriots defense in Week 17, which bodes well for their surging offense. As they fight for a position in the playoffs, their cumulative EPA has risen above zero, showing off their hot streak. Look to give Chargers players a nod if you can in your fantasy finals, as they have a great matchup in New England.
The Panthers, Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, and Falcons are all trending up for cumulative EPA, showing they have a shot to increase already strong performances from Week 16.
Defensive Takeaways
The Colts have a 0.01 EPA/play defensively on the year, and face an abysmal Giants offense who have put up a -0.10 EPA/play on the season. Look for a massive defensive performance from Indianapolis in Week 17, as the Falcons put up two defensive TDs last week against New York.
The Raiders’ defense has been rising above zero on the cumulative EPA chart—their hot streak has an opportunity to continue as they face the Saints and their QB carousel. Las Vegas could be a good defensive option if needed this week.
The Bengals’ defense has been on the rise as far as defensive cumulative EPA goes, but they face a Broncos squad fighting for a playoff spot in Week 17. This game will be hard-fought, and may not be the best time to start the surging Cincy defense.
The Chargers’ defense has struggled as of late but has a chance to bounce back in Week 17 against the Patriots. Defensively, they post a 0.04 EPA/play on the season—they should be a good bet against New England to score some positive points, but certainly aren’t the best option, as Drake Maye has kept the Pats’ offense somewhat in line over the past few weeks.
*Below find the cumulative EPA trends for each team.
* Below find the team rankings (arranged by offensive EPA/play) for EPA/play.
Next, let’s look at the points per touch allowed by each NFL defense in their last five matchups, by position. The more points allowed per touch, the worse the defense is against the given position.
The Cardinals have been a weak defense against the passing game in recent weeks, allowing 0.57 points per touch for QBs—they face the Rams in Week 17, giving Matthew Stafford a shot for a strong performance.
The Jaguars have allowed 3.04 points per touch to receivers in their last five games, making Calvin Ridley a strong option for fantasy in Week 17, despite the uncertainty at QB for Tennessee.
The Lions have been incredibly weak against the RB position in their last five—look to give whoever is in the Niners’ backfield a chance if you’re looking for a good flex play.
The Broncos have also been weak against backs in recent weeks. Chase Brown looks to be in for a treat in Week 17.
The Browns have allowed over three points per touch to receivers in their last few games—Tyreek Hill could be in for a massive, fantasy-winning performance in Week 17 as they fight for a playoff position.
Can Travis Kelce produce in Week 17? He faces the Steelers who have allowed 2.52 points per touch to TEs in their last five games. This is certainly higher than would be expected for a stout Pittsburgh defense, giving Kelce a slightly better outlook. He has only seen four to five receptions in each of his last three games and hasn’t had more than 10 targets since Week 13. It’s almost impossible to give up hope on Kelce, even this late in the season, especially when he has a somewhat favorable matchup.
Let’s wrap things up with some player profiles.
Player Profiles
Jayden Reed: Reed has been blanked on TDs the past three weeks, and has failed to put up over 10 points in five of his last six. His matchup against Minnesota isn’t great, but his efficiency on the season is still quite high. It’s certainly a tough decision, but Reed performed well in his last game against the Vikings, making this a toss-up for Week 17.
Marquise Brown: While Hollywood’s efficiency was strong at 0.45 in his debut as a Chief, there simply isn’t enough volume here. Stay away from Brown in Week 17 if you can.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers’ production has been disappointing since becoming the WR1 in Vegas. Brock Bowers has taken much of the volume here, and the lack of talent at the QB level is certainly hurting the receiver room. There is little hope for big Meyers performances in the last two weeks, despite his high efficiency on the season.
That’s all for this week, good luck in the playoffs!