NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 13 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Cowboys’ offense looks to be bouncing back after losing Dak Prescott. Their EPA/play is quite low at -0.07, but their cumulative EPA has been increasing in recent weeks. CeeDee Lamb is still a strong play at WR.
The Packers’ cumulative EPA offensively has increased slowly over the past few weeks, and they have a favorable Thanksgiving matchup against a mediocre Miami defense that has been fairly inconsistent lately on defense. Look to play your Green Bay fantasy players this week.
Buffalo has climbed to 0.12 EPA/play offensively and faces a struggling Niners defense in Week 13. Look to ride your Bills starters this week.
Minnesota has improved offensively as well, now putting up a 0.02 EPA/play offensively. They’ve added a new weapon from IR, TJ Hockenson, who has opened up the passing options for Sam Darnold. While we’ve seen less consistent numbers from Justin Jefferson in recent weeks, the offense is firing and should be trusted down the stretch.
The Steelers’ offense has declined in production in recent weeks, based on their cumulative offensive EPA numbers. While Chris Boswell has been putting up spectacular numbers, it is difficult to trust anyone else on this offense as the playoffs near.
The Commanders are still a top team in terms of EPA/play offensively, however, their cumulative EPA offensively is declining and has actually gone negative on the season. Their production has been slow, and skill players like Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson have been very TD-reliant. They might be inconsistent down the stretch based on these trends.
Defensive Takeaways
The Chiefs, who face the Raiders in Week 13, are a strong streaming option at defense. They have a 0.0 EPA/play on the season, but Las Vegas has been worse offensively, putting up -0.11 EPA/play offensively.
With Trevor Lawrence questionable, and the Jaguars offense on the decline, the Texans’ defense is a great option for Week 13.
Seattle’s defense is on the incline, and their cumulative EPA on defense shows this—they face the Jets, who have a -0.02 EPA/play offensively in Week 13, making them a solid streaming option.
The Rams have greatly struggled on defense in recent weeks, looking at their cumulative EPA numbers on defense. They play the Saints in Week 13, who have been quite explosive on offense. Players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling could be strong flex options this week.
The Commanders, Buccaneers, and Cowboys are all great streaming options defensively, all landing in the Baller’s top 10 for defenses in Week 13.
Player Profiles
Tyrone Tracy: Tracy has been underperforming since taking over the starting role in New York, posting a -0.05 EPA/play. Devin Singletary stole some goal-line snaps from Tracy in Week 12 and even got a TD over him. Look to shy away from Tracy in the coming weeks.
Tony Pollard: Pollard has been underperforming big time this season—his TD production has been low, and as we approach fantasy playoffs, he might not be your best option at back.
TJ Hockenson: Hock has been excellent since returning from injury. Putting up 0.42 EPA/play, he’s inserted himself as a TE1 in fantasy.
Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has heated up in recent weeks scoring over 10 points in PPR scoring in each of his last four games. Look to add him to your starting lineup moving forward.
That’s all for this article, have a Happy Thanksgiving!