NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 12 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
Washington’s performance in Week 11 against Philadelphia has concerned many fantasy owners. There’s no doubt they’ve struggled against better teams this season, which in turn has affected Washington’s fantasy production. Last week, Terry McLaurin scored a whopping 2.0 PPR points—is this the norm for him whenever the Commanders face some stronger competition? Luckily, they’ve got the Cowboys twice, the Titans, and the Saints remaining on their schedule, so there should be some more weeks of guaranteed production from Washington.
Kansas City has hit their groove offensively—which isn’t incredibly efficient. They’ve settled at a consistent EPA/play trend, close to 0.0. While production from Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and even Xavier Worthy has been strong in later weeks, don’t expect them to improve much more fantasy-wise.
Denver has become an interesting team through the course of this NFL season. They’ve increased their EPA/play slowly, and are now approaching neutral levels. Looking at their cumulative EPA offensively, their totals have skyrocketed in recent weeks. They face the Raiders in Week 12—look to start guys like Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton, and expect big numbers.
The Falcons had an off week against the Broncos, heading into their bye. Their cumulative sum of offensive EPA shows a steady downtrend, and they’ll face the Chargers once off bye. While things may look bleak, they finish the season with the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers—just in time for playoffs. Hold faith with your Falcons weapons, and maybe even target them on the waiver wire or through trades as their offense takes a dip.
Defensive Takeaways
The Chiefs haven’t been flashy on defense, posting a 0.01 EPA/play, but they face the Panthers in Week 12, who have a -0.11 EPA/play offensively. Look to stream their defense if they’re available on waivers—the Ballers have them ranked third for the week.
Similarly, the Commanders’ defense has been quite subpar this season, at a -0.05 EPA/play, however, they’ve got the Cowboys in Week 12, making them a viable option at defense for fantasy—the Ballers have them ranked seventh for the week.
The Bengals’ defense has been abysmal this season, with a -0.08 EPA/play—they go on bye in Week 12 but look to start your players facing Cincinnati in the future.
Philadelphia’s defense has stepped up in recent weeks, posting a 0.06 EPA/play. They take on the Rams in Week 12, who haven’t shown much promise offensively this season, at -0.02 EPA/play. The Eagles are a dark-horse option for defense streaming this week.
*Below find the cumulative sums of offensive and defensive EPA for all teams this season.
*Below find the offensive and defensive rankings for EPA/play this season.
Player Profiles
Trey Benson: Benson hasn’t been incredibly efficient this season in terms of EPA, but might be seeing more touches down the stretch, as the Cardinals are going to need to keep James Conner healthy to make a playoff run. Look for him to get some playing time and consider rostering him in redraft leagues.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Through two games with the Saints, MVS has put up three TDs, and has had a 0.79 EPA/play. These numbers will be difficult to maintain, but they definitely prove his ability to be a boom-bust player down the stretch. If you’re a team in the playoff hunt, he may be a great add for you.
Amari Cooper: Fantasy owners were excited for Cooper’s relocation to Buffalo, but have certainly been disappointed thus far. His low EPA/play numbers indicate things won’t get much better for the wideout, so don’t expect him to improve his consistency.
Najee Harris: Harris is playing in a contract season, so while his efficiency isn’t great, he certainly needs to have strong production to earn his next contract. Don’t lose faith in Harris, especially as the Steelers’ offense heats up (currently at 0.03 EPA/play, 12th in the league).
That’s all for this article, be sure to check back next week!