NFL Team Performance Trends Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 11. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Let’s jump into the numbers.
Offensive Takeaways
As you can see in the third visual below, the Rams are trending up in terms of EPA/play offensively. Over the past four weeks, they have performed above the league average in this offensive efficiency metric. However, they do face the Seahawks in Week 11, who have been strong defensively this season with a positive 0.09 EPA/play. Look for a small regression from LA.
The Packers are free-falling as far as offensive efficiency goes. While positive on the year with a 0.08 EPA/play, this past week they fell below the league average with an abysmal performance against the Eagles. Luckily, they face a weak Giants defense in Week 11, which has been poor against RBs, allowing over a point per touch to the position. Look for a strong performance from Josh Jacobs.
The Cowboys have also been on a downward trend offensively, but look to bounce back after their bye week. Their offense has put up lower EPA/play numbers in each of their last four games (as seen in the final chart below); they face the Raiders in Week 11, which won’t be as easy as it may let on. While mediocre against WRs, they have been stout at defending the run, allowing under 0.7 points per touch to RBs in the past five weeks.
New England bounced back offensively, climbing above the league average for EPA/play in Week 10. They face the Jets on Thursday night football, which some are calling a trap game, and they may be right. As seen in the second table, in the past five weeks, the Jets have allowed fewer points per touch on average than the rest of the league to every position. Be wary of your Patriots players in Week 11.
Defensive Takeaways
The Commanders are free-falling defensively. Their EPA/play on defense has gotten worse every week, as seen in the trend line chart below. They face the Dolphins in Week 11, so look for a field day for any Miami offensive player, especially Tua Tagovailoa, as Washington allows the most points per touch (0.71) to QBs in the league over the last five weeks.
The Bengals are also having issues defensively. They have gotten worse in EPA/play each week, and have given substantial points up to TEs (4.17 points per touch) and RBs (1.19 points per touch) in the past five weeks. They face the Steelers in Week 1, so look to start every Pittsburgh player you can. Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith are both options for TE, and DK Metcalf and Jaylen Warren are must-starts. Even Roman Wilson can be slotted in as an emergency flex/WR.
The Vikings have also struggled against TEs in the past five weeks, allowing over three points per touch to them. As they face the Bears in Week 11, this is another opportunity to start rising star Colston Loveland.
If you are a Kimani Vidal owner, you’ve certainly been riding a rollercoaster of emotion in trying to hit the right time to start him. If you are pondering this for Week 11, the answer is to SIT him. He faces the Jaguars, who allow only 0.74 points per touch to RBs, one of the league lows.
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