NFL Team Performance Trends Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 10. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Let’s dive right in.
Offensive Takeaways
The Bears, Bengals, and Eagles are all hitting their strides. As you will see on the third visual below, each team is trending strongly in the positive direction as far as EPA/play is concerned, meaning each week they have been getting more efficient offensively. While the Bengals are on bye, the Eagles take on the Packers, and the Bears face the Giants, both teams that have negative EPA/play on defense this season. Look for strong offensive performances from Philly and Chicago.
The Cowboys’ offense is taking an inefficient turn, as their EPA trend line goes below league average (0.0). While their season efficiency is high (0.12 EPA/play), they have struggled in recent weeks. Going into their bye, it will be interesting to see how they can bounce back.
The Ravens finally took a positive turn in terms of offensive play in Week 9. They now have a 0.05 EPA/play for the entire season and had an average EPA/play over 0 for two consecutive weeks for the first time since Week 4. They face Minnesota this week, who have had a positive defensive efficiency on the year, but have allowed over three points per touch to WRs on the season. Look for Zay Flowers to have a big week, and even fringe wideouts like Rashod Bateman to perform as well.
The Chargers have taken a hit offensively, with their EPA/play at 0 for the first time in a few weeks. They have the Steelers in Week 10, who have been relatively strong defensively, at least in terms of points allowed per touch across all major positions, as shown in the second table below.
Defensive Takeaways
Minnesota has allowed the third most points per touch to TEs in the past 5 weeks, making Mark Andrews a viable option for Week 10. The Broncos have allowed the second-most points per touch to TEs in this time frame, making Brock Bowers due for another massive week as well.
The Bears have allowed over three points per touch to WRs over the last five weeks, and over 0.5 points per touch to QBs. This leaves room for another high-scoring Jaxson Dart performance, with some fringe starters at WR like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton.
The Buccaneers are allowed over a point per touch to RBs in recent weeks, and face New England in Week 10. While everyone is going crazy over Drake Maye, this will be an opportunity for Rhamondre Stevenson (if he is healthy) and TreVeyon Henderson to shine.
The Texans take on the Jaguars in Week 10, who have allowed 3.05 points per touch to WRs in the past 5 weeks. Look for Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson to all be viable options this week in fantasy.
On the flip side, the Texans have been lock down defensively, allowing just 0.85 points per touch to RBs, and 2.58 points per touch to WRs. This is not a great week to put faith in Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Etienne if you have other options.
