Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 4
Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 4! We now have three weeks of target data to sort through and while I feel more comfortable once we get through Week 4, the important thing to remember is that we have more information than last week. Let’s start, as usual, by looking at the season-long target leaders to this point.
Target Trends
Rookie Malik Nabers leads the way with 37 targets. That’s the second-most ever by a rookie through three weeks, trailing only Puka Nacua, who set the record with 42 through the same span just last season. Amon-Ra St. Brown checks in next with 32 while Rashee Rice and Amari Cooper are tied for third with 29 apiece.
After three weeks, I’m beginning to think we aren’t getting the tight end renaissance that many predicted in 2024. Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are tied for the lead with 21 targets each, while Dallas Goedert isn’t far behind with 20. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce has the same amount of targets as Jordan Akins and Colby Parkinson (12). That’s still better than Sam Laporta (10) and Mark Andrews (8).
Breece Hall and De’Von Achane remain tied among running backs, now up to 19 targets each. The next closest target earners at the position through three weeks are Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard at 14. We have a three-way tie behind them between Jerome Ford, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Rachaad White, all at 13.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders, and now let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 4.
Diontae Johnson – 14 targets, 8 rec
Johnson was a familiar face in this article series dating back to his days with the Steelers, but he was targeted just six times in each of his first two games in Carolina. That changed with Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young in Week 3. The veteran QB targeted Johnson early and often, turning 14 targets into a career-high 122 receiving yards for the six-year veteran. No other Panther saw more than five of Dalton’s 37 attempts head their way.
Rashee Rice – 14 targets, 12 rec
It’s been a red-hot start for Rice, the overall WR4 after three weeks. Just check out where he ranks in the major wide receiver stat categories in the table below.
| Stat | Total | Rank |
| Targets | 29 | 3 |
| Target % | 34.5% | 2 |
| Receptions | 24 | 1 |
| Rec % | 82.8% | 4 |
| Rec Yards | 288 | 2 |
| YAC | 185 | 1 |
| YPRR | 3.27 | 3 |
| aDOT | 5.2 | 31 |
While the aDOT may leave something to be desired, it clearly doesn’t matter how deep the targets are if you’re the clear target leader in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense.
Malik Nabers – 12 targets, 8 rec
Wan’Dale Robinson – 8 targets, 7 rec
Nabers is the headliner here, who I called out in the opener as the overall target leader in the NFL. His 37.8% target share also leads the NFL among players who have suited up for all three games. Robinson, however, is sneakily commanding a 24.5% target share himself. That would be good enough to lead 13 other NFL teams and is a higher target share than Drake London (24.1%), Tyreek Hill (22.1%), and Ja’Marr Chase (17.5%), among others.
Jauan Jennings – 12 targets, 11 rec
Brandon Aiyuk – 10 targets, 5 rec
With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all sidelined with injuries, all signs pointed to the 49ers heavily targeting Aiyuk in Week 3. The 10 targets he got doubled his season total but only turned into 7.3 fantasy points. Instead, it was Jennings who stole the show. His targets were enough to bump his season-long target share from 14% after two games to 22% after three. It remains to be seen when, if ever, the San Fransisco offense will return to full strength, but Jennings will be a viable fantasy option until then, if not longer.
Amari Cooper – 12 targets, 7 rec
Cooper’s 17 targets through the first two weeks were encouraging but they didn’t turn into many fantasy points. That changed in Week 3 as he saw an even higher target rate and turned two of those targets into TDs. Unfortunately, he landed awkwardly on his last target of the game, a deep shot down the left sideline, and had to be helped off with an undisclosed injury. Jerry Jeudy who has been targeted 21 times this season, would likely become the WR1 in Cleveland if Cooper has to miss any time.
Houston Texans Pass Catchers
The target distribution in Houston could legitimately show up in this article every week. Nico Collins currently leads the way with 28 targets, but that number is slightly inflated after Davis Mills force-fed him four end zone targets in garbage time in the Week 3 loss to Minnesota.
Davis Mills fed Nico Collins four consecutive (incomplete) end zone targets at the end of their blowout loss lol pic.twitter.com/3xWjx1ZMnn
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024
Stefon Diggs led the team with 12 targets in Week 3, putting him up to 24 on the season. Dell has been close to connecting on a few big plays but with just 17 targets so far, he’s currently third in the pecking order.
Chicago Bears Pass Catchers
Rookie Rome Odunze broke out for 11 targets in Week 3, topping the nine total he had seen through the first two games. DJ Moore has been the consistent target leader, seeing at least eight in each game and 28 in total. Cole Kmet came alive with 11 targets in Week 3 after earning just one in Week 1 and five in Week 2. To muddy the waters even more, Keenan Allen led the team with 11 targets in the only game he played back in Week 1. Predicting Chicago’s target distribution could prove challenging all season.
Dallas Goedert – 11 targets, 10 rec
DeVonta Smith – 10 targets, 7 rec
It was no surprise to see these two heavily targeted with A.J. Brown ruled out again. It could have been an even bigger day for Smith if it weren’t for a brutal hit to the head forcing him out of the game early in the fourth quarter. If he and Brown miss time, Goerdert will be competing for targets with the likes of Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson.
Courtland Sutton – 11 targets, 7 rec
Sutton saw 12 targets in Week 1 but was far more productive with the 11 that went his way in Week 3. He remains the clear WR1 in Denver, as his 24.8% target share is 10% higher than any other Bronco. He’s still yet to find the end zone but that could change if rookie Bo Nix continues to make positive strides.
Marvin Harrison Jr. – 11 targets, 9 rec
Michael Wilson – 9 targets, 8 rec
Harrison has seen his target total increase in each of the first three weeks. His 22 total targets lead Arizona, just one ahead of Trey McBride, who exited late in the game with a concussion. It’s also worth noting that second-year wideout Michael Wilson set a career-high with nine targets in Week 3.
Jake Ferguson – 11 targets, 6 rec
Ferguson sat out Week 2 with a knee injury, then proceeded to set a career-high with 11 targets in Week 3. The big performance brings his target total up to 16 on the season, tied with Jalen Tolbert for second on the team behind CeeDee Lamb (24). Ferguson is a must-start tight end in the current fantasy landscape.
Christian Kirk – 10 targets, 8 rec
After averaging 7.1 targets/game with Jacksonville in 2023, Kirk had just seven targets total through the first two weeks. He bounced back with 10 targets in Week 3, but it came in a game where the Jaguars were trailing far behind the Bills all night. That being said, the 0-3 Jags may be playing catch-up a lot this season, so the potential PPR volume for Kirk exists for fantasy.
Demario Douglas – 9 targets, 7 rec
Douglas didn’t blow the doors off with his nine targets Thursday night, but it’s worth noting after he saw just three targets in Week 1 and put up a goose egg in Week 2. He led the Patriots with 79 targets as a rookie and received a lot of buzz this offseason. He probably shouldn’t be started in fantasy leagues at this point but can be stashed or, at the very least, monitored, as New England will likely hand the keys to the offense to rookie QB Drake Maye at some point this season.
Las Vegas Raiders Pass Catchers
Davante Adams has been a long-time alpha wideout and it will likely remain that way in Las Vegas, but it was interesting that he saw the same amount of targets as Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker in Week 3. Meyers and Tucker put up some of their stats in garbage time but it’s still worth noting with the Raiders starting QB in flux. Meanwhile, Brock Bowers had his first letdown of the season with just four targets but he remains a must-start fantasy tight end.
Seattle Seahawks Pass Catchers
For the first time this season, Tyler Lockett led the Seahawks with eight targets. His 17 total are still third on the team for the season behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba (21) and DK Metcalf (24). It’s been an up-and-down three weeks for JSN, who saw 16 of his 21 targets in Week 2. Not surprisingly, Metcalf is the alpha in this offense.
Miami Dolphins Pass Catchers
The absence of Tua Tagovailoa is a big problem for Miami’s pass catchers. All three of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane saw five targets from the combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle in Week 3. That’s not bad for Achane as an RB, but it’s difficult to trust Hill or Waddle until Tua returns.
Baltimore Ravens Pass Catchers
Lamar Jackson targeted eight different players on just 15 attempts in Week 3. That’s a recipe for fantasy disaster for pass catchers. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman each had four targets, Justice Hill had two, and no other Raven had more than one. That includes Mark Andrews, who ran an alarmingly low six routes, fewer than Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar.
Sam LaPorta – 2 targets, 2 rec
Jahmyr Gibbs – 0 targets, 0 rec
LaPorta’s disappointing start to the season went from bad to worse in Week 3. After seeing just eight targets over the first two weeks combined, last year’s TE1 saw just two targets in Week 3 as he battled through an ankle injury. Jared Goff only attempted 23 passes in the game which featured a combined 39 rush attempts and 188 yards on the ground between Gibbs and David Montgomery.