Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 16
Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 16! We’re into the fantasy playoffs and hopefully, you’re still battling for a #FootClan title. There are plenty of target trends to examine at this time of the season, and while some are just too pronounced to ignore, I will attempt to focus on players who are likely to be impactful in the fantasy playoffs. For instance, you probably know that CeeDee Lamb will get his targets without me writing a paragraph about it, but can you trust DeVonta Smith? However, as usual, let’s zoom out and begin this article by looking at the overall target leaders so far this season.
Target Trends
CeeDee Lamb leads all players with 144 targets on the season. As alluded to in the intro, he’s arguably the safest volume play in fantasy football. Coming in next is Malik Nabers with 140 targets, which is crazy considering he has played two fewer games than Lamb. He’s averaging a league-high 11.7 targets/game and is threatening the rookie record of 167 targets in a season set by Terry Glenn in 1996. Ja’Marr Chase (138) and Garrett Wilson (134) round out the top four, with no other player over 130 targets.
Despite seeing fewer than six targets in consecutive weeks, Brock Bowers still leads all tight ends with 124 targets and is currently the TE1. Trey McBride is second in targets (116) and third in fantasy points, despite still not catching a touchdown. He needs 31 more scoreless targets to top Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season, but of course, he’s still in your fantasy playoff lineup regardless. Travis Kelce is one target behind McBride with 115, while no other tight end is even over 90 targets on the season.
Alvin Kamara leads all running backs with 89 targets and is on pace to set a new career-high. Unfortunately, that is in jeopardy as he’s now dealing with a groin injury. De’Von Achane is next but significantly behind Kamara with 78 targets. Breece Hall is the only other running back with at least 60 targets; 64 to be exact.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders down the home stretch, but for now, let’s check out the weekly target trends heading into Week 16 and the next round of the fantasy football playoffs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 18 targets, 14 rec
You don’t need me to tell you that St. Brown is a safe play in your playoff lineup, but I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the weekly target leader. He fell just one target shy of his career high but it was good to see ARSB top double-digit targets for the first time since Week 11. He’s the WR2 on the season, so slot him into your lineup and carry on.
Jerry Jeudy – 14 targets, 11 rec
Jeudy has morphed into a target hog, averaging 10.0 targets/game and a 25% target share since Cleveland’s Week 10 bye. He has 111 targets this season, already just two shy of his career high with three games left to play. It’s nerve-wracking trusting Jeudy now that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be taking the snaps at quarterback for Cleveland but he has been too good to put on a fantasy bench.
Malik Nabers – 14 targets, 10 rec
I mentioned Nabers in the intro but I want to highlight him here as a confidence boost to anybody using him in the fantasy playoffs. It doesn’t seem to matter who is playing quarterback for the Giants, it’s clear that their job is to throw the ball to Nabers. Tim Boyle came in for an injured Drew Lock in Week 15 and targeted Nabers on eight of his 24 pass attempts (33.3%).
Brian Thomas Jr. – 14 targets, 10 rec
Thomas is on an absolute heater. He’s set career target highs in three consecutive weeks, averaging 12.0 targets along the way and topping it off with 14 targets in Week 15. The rookie is up to WR6 on the season and has become a must-start wide receiver in the fantasy playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles Pass-Catchers
The Eagles have simplified their offense. As long as they’re healthy, the passes are going to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The duo accounted for 23 targets, or a combined 74%(!) target share in Week 15. No other Eagle saw more than three targets against Pittsburgh.
New York Jets Pass-Catchers
It was the Davante Adams show in Week 15 as he turned back the clock and finished as the WR1 on the week. He’s seen an impressive 11.7 targets/game over the last three weeks. Garrett Wilson isn’t going away, averaging 8.7 targets/game himself over that span, but Rodgers has been locked on to his former Packer teammate in recent weeks.
Seattle Seahawks Pass-Catchers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has transformed into Seattle’s WR1. DK Metcalf missed Weeks 8-9 with a knee injury and since his Week 11 return after their bye, he’s averaged 6.4 targets/game. Over that same span of games, JSN has averaged 7.8 targets/game. That may not seem significant, but he’s also turned them into 14.8 fantasy points/game, compared to Metcalfs’s 7.6.
Brenton Strange – 12 targets, 11 rec
Evan Engram has been placed on injured reserve and Strange is now the de facto TE1 in Jacksonville. In Week 15, Strange saw more targets than Engram has in a game all season. If you are in a pinch and need a tight end in the fantasy playoffs, you could do worse than Strange, even if his targets come from Mac Jones.
Xavier Worthy – 11 targets, 6 rec
Worthy saw double-digit targets for the first time this season last week, and it translated to the most receptions (six) of his rookie campaign. He’s seen at least six targets in four consecutive games and while he loses some luster with Patrick Mahomes dinged up, Worthy has the game-breaking ability to get home for your fantasy lineups in a single play.
Quentin Johnston – 10 targets, 5 rec
Ladd McConkey returned for the Chargers in Week 15 but it was Johnston who led the way in targets. The 10 passes that went his way marked a career-high for the second-year wideout. It’s been a tumultuous ride for Quge over his first two seasons but he is starting to show signs of reliability for fantasy football.
Sam LaPorta – 10 targets, 7 rec
LaPorta finally reached double-digit targets, a mark he hit four times last season, for the first time this year in the shootout with Buffalo. The Lions travel to Chicago and San Francisco to close out the season, so those game environments aren’t likely to see the same high-paced back-and-forth script, though it’s tough to bench somebody as talented as LaPorta.
Chigoziem Okonkwo – 10 targets, 8 rec
Chig set a new career high in Week 15, hitting double-digit targets for the first time in his career. It’s worth noting that seven of his 10 targets came from backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, who came in to relieve Will Levis. Chig can work as a desperation tight end in the fantasy playoffs, especially if Rudolph gets the starting nod at quarterback.
Malik Washington – 6 targets, 5 rec
I’ve written up Miami pass-catchers in this article nearly every week of the season but this is the first mention of Washington. The rookie was inactive for the first three weeks of the season and never saw more than four targets in a game until last week. The Dolphins have parted ways with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jaylen Waddle got banged up against the Texans, creating an opportunity for Washington in Miami’s offense.
Baltimore Ravens Pass-Catchers
Lamar Jackson threw for five touchdowns in Week 15 without targeting any of his pass catchers more than seven times. Zay Flowers was the target leader, but only turned the seven targets into 53 receiving yards. Rashod Bateman caught two touchdowns on just five targets, Mark Andrews scored on one of his two targets, and rookie Devontez Walker caught his only target of the day in the end zone. Lamar may be one of the best quarterbacks in the league but much like Josh Allen, it’s tough to predict which of his pass-catchers will pay off for fantasy in a given week.
Cooper Kupp – 3 targets, 0 rec
Kupp’s goose egg likely ended the season for countless fantasy managers in Week 15. If you somehow survived with Kupp in your lineup, you may have to hold your breath and roll with him again. He averaged 9.1 targets/game and a 34% target share from Weeks 8-14, which are elite usage numbers. It will be difficult to trust him moving forward, but it’s tough to imagine many fantasy teams have a better option on the bench.
Amari Cooper – 0 targets, 0 rec
Cooper’s disappearing act in Week 15 is arguably the most puzzling of the season. He saw a season-high 14 targets in Week 14 before running 15 targetless routes in the shootout against Detroit. He was a league-winner last season and while it looked like he may have been heading down that path again, the rug pull in Week 15 makes him impossible to trust if your fantasy team is still alive.