Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 16
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 16! As the fantasy playoffs continue, target trends are more important than ever. As usual, this article will start with the overall target trends for the season.
Despite sitting out Week 15 with a heel injury, Keenan Allen still leads the NFL with 150 targets. Michael Pittman Jr., who left his Week 15 game early with a concussion, remains in second with 143. CeeDee Lamb (141), A.J. Brown (141), and Davante Adams (140) round out the top five.
T.J. Hockenson continues to lead all tight ends in targets with 123, maintaining his 13-target lead over Travis Kelce. Evan Engram comes in third with 109, and David Njoku is just behind him at 106. Rookie Sam LaPorta, the current TE1 in all of fantasy football, checks in next with 98.
The story remains the same at running back. Alvin Kamara stays on top with 78 targets, which breaks down to an impressive 7.7 targets/game and a 22.3% target share on the season. Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall come in next with 68 targets each. Brian Robinson (64) and Travis Etienne (62) round out the top five.
I’ll continue leading off this article with season-long target leaders, but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 16.
Target Trends
David Njoku – 14 targets, 10 rec
Njoku got off to a slow start this season, averaging just 3.7 targets/game over the first three weeks. Since then, that rate has risen to 8.6 targets/game and climbed to 9.3 targets/game in the three Joe Flacco starts. With Flacco slinging the ball over 44 times per game and the best schedule remaining for fantasy tight ends, Njoku could end up a league-winner.
Davante Adams – 12 targets, 8 rec
Adams had one of his best fantasy performances of the season in Las Vegas’ 42-point drubbing of the Chargers Thursday night. He’s topped 10 targets in four of his last five games and is averaging 10.3 targets/game since Aidan O’Connell became the full-time starter in Week 9.
Terry McLaurin – 12 targets, 6 rec
McLaurin saw double-digit targets for the fifth time this season in Week 15, and he turned them into his best fantasy performance of the year. Only four of those targets came from backup Jacoby Brissett, but they resulted in three catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Sam Howell gets another chance to start in Week 16, so hopefully, he took notes.
Chris Godwin – 12 targets, 10 rec
Mike Evans – 6 targets, 4 rec
Godwin, much like McLaurin, has been seeing plenty of targets this season. He had 11 targets in Week 14 that resulted in just 53 receiving yards. That production flipped in Week 15, as he led the NFL with 155 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Mike Evans was targeted just six times for the second consecutive week but managed to find the end zone for the 11th time this season.
Noah Brown – 11 targets, 8 rec
Brown stepped up as Houston’s top receiving option with Case Keenum at quarterback and both Tank Dell and Nico Collins sidelined. His 11 targets set a new career-high for the six-year veteran. He needs 28 more targets to set a new season-long career high, but just 34 receiving yards to top his career-best 555 from last season in Dallas.
Trey McBride – 11 targets, 10 rec
Marquise Brown – 0 targets, 0 rec
It’s been a tale of two seasons for McBride. The second-year tight end averaged just 3.0 targets/game over the season’s first seven weeks. That has more than tripled to 9.1 targets/game over the last seven games. He has hit at least a 20% target share in all seven of those games. Meanwhile, Brown averaged 8.6 targets/game over the first nine weeks of the season with Kyler Murray out but is down to just 4.8 in the five games with Kyler. It feels like a lost season for Hollywood as he heads into free agency dealing with a nagging heel injury.
Justin Jefferson – 10 targets, 7 rec
It’s likely too late for fantasy teams that roster Jefferson, but he led the Vikings with a 31% target share in his first full game back. T.J. Hockenson saw seven targets, and Jordan Addison checked in with six, but Jefferson is the target hog in Minnesota, even if those targets are coming from Nick Mullens.
Rashee Rice – 9 targets, 9 rec
Rice has become a regular in this article series. He has at least nine targets in four straight games and is averaging a 28% target share over that span. For comparison, Travis Kelce has a 21% target share over that same stretch of games. Rice is shaping up to be this season’s league-winning rookie receiver who catches fire down the home stretch.
Hunter Henry – 9 targets, 7 rec
Not only were Henry’s nine targets a season-high, but they were also the most he’s seen since Week 12 of 2020 when he still played for the Chargers. The next most targeted Patriot was Ezekiel Elliott, with six. Henry has been a top-three fantasy tight end in back-to-back weeks, though he did it with two touchdowns on just three targets in Week 14.
Stefon Diggs – 5 targets, 4 rec
Diggs’ five targets tied his season-low, even though they accounted for a season-high 38% team target share. That’s what happens when Josh Allen only needs to attempt 16 passes in a game. Diggs has now been outside of the top 40 fantasy wideouts in four of his last five games.
Ja’Marr Chase – 4 targets, 4 rec
Chase opened the season with at least eight targets in eight consecutive games. Now he’s only topped eight targets once since Week 10 and saw just eight total targets over the last two weeks combined. He always has big play and touchdown potential whenever he steps on the field, but the volume isn’t what it used to be for Chase.
Garrett Wilson – 4 targets, 3 rec
Wilson is another stud who totaled a low target count in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. His four targets were his fewest in a game this season, and he was out-targeted by teammates Tyler Conklin (seven), Xavier Gipson (six), and Allen Lazard (six). It’s been a rough season for Wilson catching passes from Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian, but brighter days should be in store for him next season if Aaron Rodgers is back to full health.