Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 11
Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 11! With the fantasy playoffs just a few weeks away, it’s important to keep an eye on the target trends throughout the league. As usual, let’s begin this article by looking at the overall target leaders so far this season.
Target Trends
Garrett Wilson continues to lead the league in total targets and is now the first player this season to hit the 100-target threshold. Malik Nabers and CeeDee Lamb are tied for second with 94 targets each, though Nabers leads the league in target rate at 11.8 targets/game. Nobody else has 90 targets yet this season.
With Brock Bowers and his 73 targets on bye, Travis Kelce surpassed him for the overall target lead at tight end with 76. Cade Otton is right behind them with 70 targets. Trey McBride is sitting in fourth at the position with 65 targets, while no other tight end has more than 59.
At running back, Alvin Kamara still easily leads, now up to 69 targets on the season. Breece Hall is the next closest but a full 15 targets behind at 54. De’Von Achane at 47 and Bijan Robinson at 46 round out the top four at the position.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders each week, but for now, let’s check out the weekly target trends heading into Week 11.
Ja’Marr Chase – 17 targets, 11 rec
Chase took the second-highest target total of his career and turned it into the top fantasy performance of the season. He’s seen double-digit targets and at least a 30% target share in three consecutive weeks. It’s worth noting that those three weeks coincide with the absence of Tee Higgins, who could be returning to action soon.
Puka Nacua – 14 targets, 9 rec
Puka is one of the league’s best target earners when he’s on the field. Monday night was the first game he played over 75% of the offensive snaps in a game this season, and it immediately led to a season-high 14 targets. He should be viewed as one of the safest fantasy wideouts moving forward as long as he can stay on the field.
Davante Adams – 13 targets, 6 rec
Adams set a new season high with 13 targets in his fourth game with the Jets, and they were his most since back in Week 2 when he was still a Raider. His target share has increased each week since joining New York, hitting 39% in Week 10. It’s likely not a coincidence that Breece Hall has seen four or fewer targets in all four games with Adams on the team.
Travis Kelce – 12 targets, 8 rec
Kelce has been a target hog lately, averaging 13.3 targets/game and a 34% target share over the last three weeks. It’s resulted in him being the TE1 for fantasy over that span. There’s no reason to believe anybody on the Chiefs will supplant Kelce as the top target in the offense for the rest of the season.
Drake London – 12 targets, 8 rec
London’s health was in question heading into Week 10, but his hip injury didn’t appear to slow him down. He was on the field for 100% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps and ran 44 routes, his second-highest total of the season. He wasn’t a decoy either, leading the team with 12 targets, his most since Week 5.
Chase Brown – 11 targets, 9 rec
Brown’s 11 targets more than doubled his previous career high of five, which he just set in Week 9. With Zack Moss possibly out for the rest of the season, the Bengals recently acquired Khalil Herbert and signed Gary Brightwell, neither of whom has ever seen more than five targets in a game. It appears Brown’s role as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield in Cincinnati is secure.
San Francisco 49ers Pass-Catchers
With the return of Christian McCaffrey, it seems like a good time to check in with the 49ers’ pass-catchers. CMC wasn’t held back in his season debut, playing 89% of the snaps and seeing seven targets, more than the 5.2 targets/game he averaged last season. Jauan Jennings led the team with 11 targets, one short of his season high. Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall chipped in with six targets apiece. George Kittle, the team’s target leader on the season, saw just four in Week 10 but saved his day by turning one into a touchdown. San Francisco appears to have five legitimate pass-catchers.
Indianapolis Colts Pass-Catchers
With Michael Pittman missing his first game of the season, the Colts are another team worth examining. Unsurprisingly, Josh Downs led the way with 10 targets. He’s seen at least nine targets in six of the last seven games. Alec Pierce was next with seven targets, his most since Week 2. Rookie Adonai Mitchell may have been the biggest beneficiary with six targets, the most for him since Week 5. Even more encouraging, Mitchell ran a season-high 37 pass routes.
Kareem Hunt – 10 targets, 7 rec
Are Hunt’s 10 targets in Week 10 an outlier? He saw just 1.6 targets/game over his first five weeks with the Chiefs and has averaged just 3.1 targets/game over his eight-year career. His passing game usage peaked in 2019, his first season with the Browns, at 5.5 targets/game. However, with Kansas City hurting for pass-catchers, Hunt could see a late-career receiving renaissance.
T.J. Hockenson – 9 targets, 8 rec
Hockenson has seen a nearly identical snap share in each week since returning from injury, about 46%. However, he was targeted more than twice as many times in his second game. His nine targets were tied with Justin Jefferson for the team lead in Week 10, and he led the team with 72 receiving yards.
Kayshon Boutte – 6 targets, 4 rec
Boutte’s six targets don’t jump off the box score, but they accounted for a season-high 26% team target share. He’s now seen exactly six targets in three consecutive weeks which, if you can ignore the sign of the beast, is a good sign as it’s tied with Hunter Henry for the highest total on the team over that span. Boutte has also played at least 96% of the offensive snaps in two consecutive weeks.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 3 targets, 3 rec
The only wide receiver with more fantasy points than MVS in Week 10 was Ja’Marr Chase, and it took him 14 more targets. Of course, that kind of efficiency won’t be sustainable, but there should continue to be opportunities for him in the depleted Saints receiver room. As he’s shown throughout his career, he’s a boom/bust receiver that can pay off on a single target or put up a goose egg on any given week.
Diontae Johnson – 2 targets, 1 rec
Johnson’s second week as a Raven wasn’t much different than his first. He did get targeted for the first time since joining Baltimore, but he ran just three routes, ranking ninth among Raven pass-catchers. He’s commanded a strong target share in the past, and Baltimore made a point to trade for him, so he could end up eventually becoming more involved, but he doesn’t belong in fantasy lineups until we see it on the field.
Mike Williams – 1 target, 1 rec
Williams is another receiver on a new team, and much like Johnson, he only ran a handful of routes in his debut. The difference is that the lone target that went his way was a game-winning touchdown. With Russell Wilson throwing moon balls for Pittsburgh, Williams is another low-floor, high-ceiling option for fantasy if he starts to see the field more.