Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 4
Good Morning, Footclan, and a very warm welcome to Week 4 of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! With a trio of matchups in the books, some patterns and trends are starting to emerge within the fantasy landscape – some we could predict, and others, not so much! As always, I am here bright and early on a Saturday morning to select a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and answer some of the hot topics that didn’t quite make it to that week’s edition of The Footcast.
The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world, and is your go-to if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today and get involved with thousands of members across dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas which are only available to members of the Footclan.
If you’ve made it this far without experiencing any major injuries impacting your team, it may be time to go out and buy a lottery ticket, because Week 3 was a bloodbath for fantasy rosters. Big-name WRs CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans both look set for multiple weeks on the sidelines as they recover from a high-ankle sprain and hamstring strain, respectively, with fellow pass-catcher Terry McLaurin also MIA with a quad strain. Giants’ RB Tyrone Tracy will join them on the treatment table for the foreseeable future after a nasty hit against the Kansas City Chiefs saw the sophomore suffer a dislocated shoulder – still, at least we should expect to see Tracy back on the field sometime this year. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for veterans Najee Harris (Achilles) and James Conner (foot/ankle), who both saw their seasons cut tragically short due to injuries sustained in their matchups and will each require surgery. We wish them a speedy recovery!
With so many injuries last week – as well as the resulting fallout from Joe Burrow’s potentially season-ending surgery – it is unsurprising that much of our focus in this week’s Mailbag looks to potential replacements for fallen heroes and the value of plummeting assets. What do we do with Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, and A.J. Brown? Is Jaxson Dart a potential league-winner at the QB position? And is Joe Mixon ever coming back?
Question #1 – Trade Advice (Bengals Sadness Part 1)
What up, what up Ballers! As a Ja’Marr Chase manager, who should I try to target if I were to trade him away? Thanks, guys! – Caliberry207
Answer: It’s almost inconceivable that just three weeks into the season, we’re having the conversation about panic selling the almost unanimous 1.01 draft pick – but here we are!
The collective hearts of Ja’Marr Chase owners sank with the image of a forlorn Joe Burrow sitting on the turf midway through the second quarter in Week 2 – only to be shattered into a million pieces when news of Cincinnati’s franchise QB’s (effectively) season-ending injury started to filter through just a few hours later. The connection that saw last season’s WR1 for fantasy rack up 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 17 TDs had been broken – and although they may share the same initials, J.B. Jake Browning is no J.B. Joe Burrow.
We got our first look at what a Burrow-less season may be like for Ja’Marr Chase with back-up Browning under center, and no, sir, I don’t like it. We all knew the Bengals Defense was bad – in fact, we were counting on it to give us those fantasy friendly, back-and-forth shoot-out style games we grew so accustomed to last season – but the 48-10 annihilation at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday revealed just how critical that elite-level QB play Joey B brought week-in, week-out is to the fantasy relevance of this offense. Where last season this may have been a 51-48 barn burner, the Cincinnati fans (and its offensive weapons) were already heading for the exits with almost ten minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and I don’t see things changing for the better any time soon.
Chase will undoubtedly still have boom games for fantasy – he’s too good a WR not to, regardless of who is throwing him the ball – but like you, I don’t want to deal with that headache every week…so just who could you attempt to offload the undisputed WR1 from last season in return for as we head into Week 4?
Well, how about the guy who is shaping up to be this season’s WR1 – Mr. Puka Nacua. This may be a long shot given Nacua’s red-hot start to the year, but Chase still carries a lot of name value, and packaged with the right secondary piece, this isn’t as wild an idea as it may sound at first. If Puka is a bridge too far, I would be knocking on the door of the Malik Nabers manager shouting as loudly as I could about the emergence of the Giants’ run game now that Cam Skattebo has taken the lead rushers role, and that this will be a team that wants to establish the run after announcing fellow rookie Jaxson Dart will be calling the plays at QB for the remainder of the year. In reality, I think Nabers sees an uptick with the 25th overall pick replacing Mr. Unlimited Diarrhea Russell Wilson, and should continue to see the target volume that saw him finish behind only Chase in looks last season.
A third and final name I’ll throw out is a guy who’s already played in Week 4 but did post his lowest points tally of the year so far in his team’s Thursday Night Football win over Arizona – Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Honestly, I would trade Chase away for JSN straight up if I could, but there will definitely be some managers out there who may be willing to throw in a little extra alongside the Seahawks’ lead receiver to get such a big name as Chase into their lineups. Take a peek at what back-up RBs the JSN owner has sitting on their bench and see if you can flip Ja’Marr for Smith-Njigba plus a Woody Marks or Ollie Gordon…if that fails, it gives you better leverage to make the one-for-one that I would still be delighted about.
Question #2 – Season-long Strategy (Eagles WR Edition)
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Pokeballers…Help! What do I do with A.J. Brown? – It’s Pukachu
Answer: Speaking of BIG name WRs who aren’t quite living up to expectations…just what are we doing with the Philadelphia Eagles’ top target moving forward?
2025 seems to have picked up where 2024 left off for Brown – back-to-back finishes outside the top-70 at the position (I wish I was making that up), followed up with a performance which saw the seventh-year veteran eclipse 100-yards receiving and find the end zone on his way to an overall WR3 week – in a word, infuriating.
Brown’s 19.9 fantasy points were his most since Week 12 of last year, and only the third time he’s seen double-digit targets in a single game for over twelve months…we may have to accept that this is not the same A.J. Brown who finished as a top-8 WR during his first two years in the city of Brotherly Love. Don’t hear what I’m not saying, this is not an anti-A.J. rant – the guy is still firmly a top-5 talent at the position in the National Football League – but with Philadelphia attempting the 3rd least number of passes (77) through the opening three weeks of the season, it’s hard to see how he could be a regular top-tier contributor for fantasy, particularly as your team’s WR1.
Like it or loathe it – this is a very successful run-first offense, backed up by one of the league’s best defensive units – so if Philly doesn’t need to ask Jalen Hurts to air it out, they won’t. Week 3 did see the Super Bowl MVP throw the ball 32 times for 226 yards and three TDs…but this was more out of necessity given the 19-point lead that the Rams had opened up through three quarters of Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field. What I’m trying to say here is – don’t get used to this level of passing volume. Hurts’ 32 attempts were only the second occasion he has eclipsed the 30-mark in over a calendar year, and if Nick Sirriani and company can regress that back to the mean moving forward, it’s bad news for Brown and the other weapons in the Eagles’ passing game.
Try to capitalize on the big Week 3 performance and sell the angle that this is the real A.J. Brown back to his fantasy best. If you can trade Brown straight up for the floor of Garrett Wilson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I’d consider that a massive W – or even better, if you could acquire Chicago Bears’ sophomore talent Rome Odunze plus a little extra in return for A.J. – you’ll be laughing all the way to a #FootClanTitle.
Question #3 – Season-long Strategy (IR Slot Special)
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My league has 2 IR slots, and I currently have Joe Burrow, Mike Evans, & Joe Mixon on my roster. Who do I cut to free up a spot for another skill position player? – JoeQuarterback
Answer: Let’s proceed on the basis that this is a standard re-draft league with no keeper implications – if, however, your league allows you to carry any of these players forward into next season, then it’s goodbye Joe Mixon!
So, assuming that this isn’t a keeper league – how do we decide which two of these injured superstars to throw on to your IR slots, and which to jettison in order to grab a playable asset off of your league’s waiver wire? Let’s start with the seriousness and potential duration of injury before discussing just what it could mean for your fantasy team.
We already know that Joe Burrow is set to miss a huge chunk of the season after leaving the Bengals’ Week 2 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Joey B was diagnosed with the dreaded Turf Toe, but further scans also revealed that the sixth-year QB suffered significant ligament damage that would ultimately require surgery. Head Coach Zac Taylor confirmed last Friday (September 19th) that Burrow had gone under the knife and, after a successful operation, his recovery period had officially begun. Early indications suggest Cincinnati’s franchise QB could be out at least three months, giving him a chance to return before the end of the season – possibly around the Week 15 mark.
While we have a pretty concrete idea of how long Burrow’s recovery period may be, we are still very much in the dark about just how long Texans’ RB Joe Mixon will remain on the sidelines, or what ailment is truly keeping him there. Mixon is currently on the NFL’s Injured Reserve List and is guaranteed to miss at least one more contest before he can officially return to the team in Week 5 – but given the uncertainty surrounding the severity of his apparent foot injury, and the relative ambiguity of his recovery – we are no closer to knowing just when we can expect last seasons overall RB11 to take the field…if at all.
Last, but certainly not least – we have Mike Evans, the latest of the trio to be cursed by the early-season injury bug. While the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mixon brings doubt, the relative hush relating to the Buccaneers’ 1,000-yard man actually gives me a sense of optimism for a speedier return to action for the veteran WR. Evans is dealing with a hamstring injury that he picked up in the Bucs Week 3 walk-off win over the New York Jets, with whispers in the bushes suggesting Baker Mayfield’s favourite target was heading for a stint on the IR – but with Tampa Bay yet to make any move relating the Evans’ availability, I am hopeful we could see the 32-year old return to action no later than Week 8 when the reigning NFC South Champions travel west to face divisional rivals New Orleans.
So what does all this mean for your fantasy team? Well, first things first – Mike Evans…you can’t cut that guy. Not only is he the most valuable of the trio, but he is also the one likely to return to action first, making him a lock for the first of your two IR slots, but now the waters get a little murky. There is a greater than 0% chance that both Joes – Burrow and Mixon – do not see an NFL field again in 2025. If the Bengals are out of playoff contention by the time their star QB is fit to play, they may elect to shut him down for the year and write off 2025 completely. Meanwhile, the Texans, at 0-3, may also find themselves playing for pride sooner rather than later and want to see what they have in 4th round rookie pick Woody Marks as the season slips away from them.
If you are confident in Cincinnati making a playoff push with Jake Browning under-center, Burrow could be a potential league winner come December – but the likelihood of that happening, coupled with the time Joe Cool would need to ramp up, makes even one of the NFL’s best QBs a scary start with a #FootClanTitle on the line. I’m keeping Mixon on the faint hope he can be fantasy relevant if/when he returns – but neither he nor Burrow are worth holding onto should anyone else of note from your roster get hurt moving forward.
Question #4 – Trade Advice (Bengals Sadness Part 2)
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Hi Ballers! Should I trade away Chase Brown for either of Trey Benson or Cam Skattebo? – Im_Not_That_Guy
Answer: This feels like a very Bengals-centric week, and as I’ve already waxed lyrical about the demise of this once great offense…I’ll try to keep this as concise as possible.
In his opening three contests, Chase Brown has gone from the RB21 to the RB34 and finally to the RB49 last time out against Minnesota – if these trends continue…yikes. A combination of Cincinnati’s porous defense and ailing offense suggests that things aren’t going to get any better for Brown in the long run, so if an opportunity presents itself to get any sort of value back for the 3rd round pick you likely invested in, click accept and move on.
Despite a somewhat underwhelming performance in Thursday night’s last-gasp defeat against the Seahawks, Trey Benson likely carries more season-long appeal than the rookie Skattebo – thanks in part to the indefinite absence of James Conner with a season-ending ankle injury. That said – given the Giants’ 4th round pick’s apparent involvement in the passing game (only Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, and Josh Jacobs saw more targets in Week 3) – the Skat Man’s upside unquestionably eclipses that of Arizona’s second-year RB. If Skattebo can establish himself as the guy in the absence of Tyrone Tracy over the next 2-3 weeks, he could very well finish the season as a top-15 RB…but that’s a big IF.
Providing both of these offers are on the table, it all comes down to your individual roster construction and to what I want in return for Brown. If I drafted Chase to be my RB1, then I’m looking for a floor play, and I’m trading for Benson – if I have a solid lead back in my squad already, then I am shooting for the moon and taking the potential league-winning upside of Skattebo.
Question #5 – Waiver Wire Pickups (Superflex Edition)
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Hey-o fellas! Who are some good buy-low QB candidates for a SuperFlex league? Thanks! – Pizza Face
Answer: There’s only one thing I like better than a bargain in fantasy football, and that’s a freebie! If I were in your shoes, the first thing I would be doing is taking a good, hard look at your waiver wire for New York Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart. With Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson proving himself to be very much Mr. Limited, Head Coach Brian Daboll has announced that Dart – a late-first round selection for the G-Men back in April – will be taking the reins at QB for the remainder of the season…and better yet, he’s currently only 32% rostered in Sleeper leagues. Another potential high-upside QB that may only cost you a smidgen of FAAB is the man who plays for the Giants’ city rivals, and is set to return to action this week on Monday Night Football following a spell in concussion protocol – Justin Fields. There’s a good chance the former Bear and Steeler may be sitting in a league-mate’s IR slot, but if you’re in one of the 36% of leagues where he is sitting un-rostered, then he is an absolute priority pickup.
Ok, let’s say you’re playing with some pretty savvy fellow fantasy managers and the waiver wire has been picked clean – it’s time to make some trades. Unless you are willing to sell half your roster, cash in your 401K, and potentially donate some kind of major organ, it’s unlikely you’ll be targeting Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts – so who are some more realistic prospects that could elevate your roster without the need for life-altering surgery?
At the tippy-top of my list is a QB who, despite sitting as the overall QB8 so far on the season and boasting the 2nd highest completion rate in the league, is still criminally disrespected by the fantasy community – I am, of course, talking about the New England Patriots, Mr Drake Maye. The sophomore QB enters Week 4 with 785 passing yards (T4th) and five passing TDs (T8th), yet despite his passing prowess and ability to run the football, he is still available in almost one-fifth of fantasy leagues…shame on you all! If you’re in a SuperFlex league, it’s almost a certainty he will be rostered, but Maye is someone I would be willing to push the boat out to acquire, especially when factoring in his rushing upside every week. If you can be patient and wait it out until next week, you Maye be able to acquire him on the cheap after the Pats’ run all over Carolina on Sunday, potentially rendering him redundant for fantasy and dropping his ROS value.
Other names I would be considering making an offer for include Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, who, despite being on a run-first offense in Seattle, offers a weekly ceiling in his trade value range simply couldn’t match, as well as soon-to-return 49ers starter Brock Purdy. The San Francisco offense is definitely sputtering along right now, and at times are painful to watch, but the team has still found a way to start 3-0 and are only going to get stronger once some of those key components of their offense begin to return from injury. Andy, Mike, and Jason talked all summer about how good the 49ers’ strength of schedule was – Purdy could be a league winner available for next to nothing.
*Bonus Question #6* – Breakfast Pastry Flavors (Pop-Tart Special)
With all of the Pop-Tart (*not a sponsor*) variations out there, which is your favorite? – CB3
Answer: As a Scotsman living in the U.K., my Pop-Tart experience is limited to only a handful of flavours regularly available over this side of the pond, and whatever I can get my hands on when on vacation in the USA – that said, I will die on the hill that Frosted Blueberry and Frosted Cinnamon Roll are the absolute GOATs and a finer breakfast pastry will never be seen on either side of the Atlantic Ocean.
So with that, all that’s left to say is good luck in Week 4, FootClan, and if anyone wants to send me some Frosted Blueberry Pop-Tarts, drop me a DM on Twitter and we can sort something out!