Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 15
Good Morning, FootClan, and a very warm welcome to Week 15 of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! It’s Saturday, it’s early, and as always, I am here to select a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and answer some of the hot topics that didn’t quite make it to that week’s edition of The Footcast. The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world, and is your go-to if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today and get involved with thousands of members across dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas which are only available to members of the FootClan.
Odds are, if you are reading this and your eyes are not full of tears, then you have made it to the hallowed lands of the fantasy football playoffs…welcome, it’s lovely here. Much like those family road-trips, we don’t want to have travelled all this way just to have our grumpy dad’s (I’m looking at you, Mike Wright) turn the car around and head straight back home…so we have to lock in, even if our teams were fortunate enough to get those coveted bye-weeks. Remember…fantasy never stops.
In this week’s mailbag, we welcome back an old friend (and boy, do I mean old) and survey the impact that his return has on the fantasy landscape; we will also be taking a peek at just how far Justin Jefferson has fallen in the rankings as we enter the fantasy playoffs. All that, plus some insight on how super-stacking may just win you a #FootClanTitle…let’s dive right in!
Question #1 – Start/Sit (Tyler Warren‘s Cry/Pee Me a River’ Special)
Scared Tyler Warren manager here…do I play him, Isaiah Likely, or Mike Gesicki this week? I’m looking for highest possible upside – Allentown
Answer: There wasn’t one single player that we had more questions relating to in this week’s mailbag than Colts’ rookie TE sensation, Tyler Warren. It seems that the magic fairy dust that enshrouded the boys in blue and white has somewhat worn off up in Indiana – much to the chagrin of Warren’s fantasy managers. The once runaway AFC South leaders at 8-2 now find themselves on the outside looking in, as they sit firmly on the edge of the playoff bubble following three straight defeats out of their Week 11 bye.
Heading into their week off, Indy had scored over 20 points in all but two of their games on the year…the two that they lost. Since the bye, they have failed to eclipse that mark in any of the three games they’ve played, losing all three to Kansas City and to divisional rivals Houston and Jacksonville. The team’s slump has correlated with a dip in form for their No.14 overall draft pick, Warren, who hasn’t surpassed the 50-yard receiving mark in his last three outings – posting single-digit fantasy points in each. Given his early season form, and undeniable raw talent, I would usually have said not to worry about it the disappointing run of games, and that he will undoubtedly bounce back just at the right moment as we enter the fantasy playoffs…but then Daniel Jones went and tore his Achilles, and we are faced with the realistic possibility that Philip Rivers (yes, 44-year-old, retired for 5 years, coaches High School football, and is a grandfather Philip Rivers) may be starting for Indy this Sunday as they head to Seattle in what is an absolute must-win game for the Colts…suddenly I am slightly less confident for some reason.
The honest answer here is that we simply don’t know how Warren will fare with Rivers under center; we could see the veteran QB hyper-target the rookie, who will likely act as a safety valve on short-yardage passes…or we could see Grandpa Rivers pressured so badly that he re-retires before the clock hits triple-zeroes in the 2nd quarter.
For me, this week, Warren is a fringe TE1, but the upside will be significantly capped with either Rivers or 6th-round rookie Riley Leonard taking the snaps. With Tee Higgins out, Sticky Gesicki definitely gets a bump in looks and could sneak into the top 10 come the end of the week, but if you’re looking for upside, I would go with Isaiah Likely and his delicious matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. You heard Jason talk about it on the main show the other day, but this Bengals team is the worst of all time against the TE position, giving up an unbelievable 24 fantasy points per game to the position. With TDs wiped off the board in back-to-back weeks, Likely’s recent numbers are not reflective of his overall standard of play. If any of this TE trio are set to have a breakout game for your fantasy team in wildcard week…it’s likely to be Isaiah.
Question #2 – Start/Sit (Boom/Bust WR Edition)
Dan Powers, Dan Powers / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Hey Ballers! Stick with me – this is a serious question: who’s going to be a better start throughout the fantasy playoffs – Christian Watson or Justin Jefferson? Full- PPR league. – Tank2217
Answer: Imagine jumping in the DeLorean, jumping back just three short months ago to early September, and telling your past self that in Week 15 of the season, you would be contemplating whether to start a fully-healthy Justin Jefferson over Christian Watson, who at that point was still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered back in January… heavy-duty Doc.
Watson has been en-fuego since returning to action against the Steelers in Week 8; his performances over the seven-game stretch see him sitting as the overall WR10 in Full-PPR scoring. The 4th year wideout followed up his WR13 finish in Week 13 with a WR6 performance in Green Bay’s 28-21 over NFC North rivals Chicago last weekend, leap-frogging their opponents atop the division in the process. Watson was only targeted four times by Jordan Love, but he did manage to haul in each and every one of those targets for 89 yards and two TDs – including a 41-yard score late in the 3rd quarter that effectively sealed the W for the Pack.
Justin Jefferson, on the other hand…woof. There’s a meme this side of the pond of a soccer coach being asked “Surely it can’t get any worse?” to which he calmly replies in a deadpan fashion: “it can” – and as much as I never thought I’d see a Mick McCarthy x Justin Jefferson crossover in my lifetime, never has an online reference felt so apt to sum up Jettas’ performances of late. Jefferson’s overall WR79 finish last week came as the result of his measly 2.1 fantasy points in Minnesota’s 31-0 blowout victory over Washington. For once, sophomore QB J.J. McCarthy couldn’t shoulder the blame for Jefferson’s lacklustre box score – the Vikings just simply didn’t need the passing game to see off the hapless Commanders. McCarthy threw the ball just 23 times, with Jettas seeing four of these to register a respectable 27% target share on the day.
So, what does that mean for Week 15 – this is the playoffs after all! Every single bit of information we have points to starting Christian Watson…except one; the Vikings are up against the Dallas Cowboys defense. Minnesota are 5.5 dogs on the road in Arlington, so by all accounts, Nine is going to have to air it out if the Vikes want to keep up…and that may finally unlock the stellar fantasy performance managers have been waiting months for from their 1st round draft pick. Green Bay heads to Mile High to face off against the Denver Broncos – the 4th hardest matchups for opposing WRs on the year.
I simply cannot in good faith trust Christian Watson in this one, despite how anemic that Minnesota passing game has been. The playoffs are a time for big games from big names, so I am leaning towards Jefferson to finally come good – I wish you the best of luck.
Question #3 – Start/Sit (Superflex QB Special)
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Howdy Ballers! Who do I start as my QB2 in my Superflex league this weekend – first week of the playoffs, and I’m between freshly acquired Philip Rivers or Jacoby Brissett – 6RingsMakaveli
Answer: We’ve made it all the way to Week 15, and along the way we’ve waded through the mucketty-muck of the ever-changing fantasy landscape…but this is one of – if not the – nastiest start/sit questions we’ve had in the mailback all season.
In a hilarious irony, these two were actually team-mates back in 2020 – you remember 2020 right; Space X made its first ever manned flight to space, Kanye declared he was going to run for President, and for a large part of the year most of the world was under strict lockdown conditions…well that was also the last time Philip Rivers played a down of NFL football – feeling old yet?
Let’s start with the youngster – at a mere 33-years old, Jacoby Brissett has been absolutely red-hot since taking over as the starter in Arizona back in Week 6. K1 may be gone for the season (and maybe for good), but the Cards have found QB1 in Jacoby, with the former Patriot, Colt, Dolphin, Brown, Commander, and Patriot (again) finishing inside the top 12 at the position each and every week he’s been on the field since replacing Kyler. The Cardinals may have lost all but one of those games – but that, my friends, is a recipe for fantasy gold, with nobody throwing for more yards than Brissett (2,459), as Arizona desperately play catch up time and time again – oh yeah, did I mention the Cards also had a bye-week during that stretch?
Despite these successes, this may just be the week that the Brisket starts to dry up a little as Arizona faces the less-than-mouth-watering prospect of a trip to Houston and a matchup against the league’s No.1 pass defense. With the Texans coming off an impressive 20-10 victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead, their defensive unit will be looking to build on a performance that saw them hold the league’s then-leading passer, Patrick Mahomes, to a mere 160 scoreless yards, as well as picking him off 3 times. This may be the end of the QB1 streak for Arizona’s journeyman.
Speaking of journeymen…Pee-River is back, baby! Now clocking in at 44 years young, Jason Moore’s favorite QB returns to the NFL as an actual grandfather after being signed to the Colts ‘ practice squad earlier this week. If (and that still remains a big if) Rivers draws the start this weekend against Seattle, he will become only the 5th QB in history to start a game aged 44 years old or over (Tom Brady being the oldest at 45 back in 2022). After nearly five years out of the professional game, Rivers has spent his retirement coaching High School football – so there’s a chance he’s still been keeping that arm of his well-oiled, working with the fine young athletes at St. Michael’s College, Alabama…but his O/U of 150.5 passing yards tells us we should perhaps be tempering our expectations.
The Seahawks’ defense just bodied another elder statesman of the game in the form of Kirk Cousins last weekend, holding the fresh-faced 37-year-old to just 162 scoreless yards, with two INTs. The narrative is a fun one, and it may well bite me in the butt – but there is no way I am risking starting Rivers – fresh off the streets – in my fantasy playoffs. The matchup for Brissett is rough, but at least we’ve seen him throw a ball (and throw it well) for most of this current decade.
Question #4 – Start/Sit (Stack Attack Special)
Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images
Hey Ballers! I made the playoffs in my League of Record but am the heavy underdog. Should I start Dak Prescott at QB this week or pivot to Brock Purdy to go along with my Christian McCaffrey/George Kittle stack this week? – Josh
Answer: On paper, this is a no-brainer. Dak has been playing out of his mind recently, recording back-to-back-to-back-to-back top-5 performances at the position since the Cowboys’ Week 10 bye. In that four-game stretch, only Matthew Stafford has more passing TDs, only the aforementioned Jacoby Brissett has thrown for more yards, and only The Stallion himself – Josh Allen – has more total fantasy points. Don’t hear what I’m not saying, I love Brock Purdy – but aside from his very efficient three TD performance in the blowout victory over Arizona, the former Mr. Irrelevant hasn’t exactly done much since his return from the toe injury, which saw him miss half a dozen games through Week 11. As I said, this is a no-brainer – on paper…but we don’t play this funny little game on paper, do we?
Every fantasy website and analyst (including ours) will tell you that Dak is the play over Purdy this week, but the one thing none of these rankings take into consideration is your individual situation. Sure, Dak is the “safe” play and will likely get you 20+ fantasy points – but with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey accounting for over 50% of San Francisco’s receiving TDs on the year (I’m not counting those Jake Tonges or Luke Farrell scores when Kittle was hurt), the upside of playing the Super-Stack is something that Dak simply can’t give you in isolation.
The 49ers sit 3rd in the NFC West ahead of their face-off with the Tennessee Titans at home this weekend, but entering the week just one game back from both the Seahawks and the Rams, Kyle Shanahan’s men won’t want to take their foot off the gas as we enter the business end of the season. I’m projecting the 49ers to win, and to win big – with Brock Purdy being a pivotal part of that success on Sunday. If you’re certain you are the underdog, then shoot for the stars and fire up all three of your men in red, white, and gold.
It’s time for Rapid Round…
I’ve ridden Jacoby Brissett to my first playoffs in my main League of Record – do I keep playing him or start either Justin Herbert or C.J. Stroud this week? – Pronounced with a Lil Umphrey
Answer: I may have waxed lyrical (kinda) about Jacoby already in this article, but Beef Brisket is taking a back seat for C.J. Stroud for me here. At a whopping 26 points, the Texans have by far the largest implied team total of the three in question here, and should be able to throw all over the Cardinals on their way to six wins on the bounce.
Yo Ballers! Rapid round – who has a higher 2026 ADP in each of these pairs of players: Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson, Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren, and finally Michael Wilson or Marvin Harrison – DryAndDisciplined
Answer: Some pretty intriguing pairs we have here, but outside of the RBs…these are no-brainers. Colston Loveland may have been drafted ahead of Tyler Warren in the NFL Draft back in April, but for the 2026 fantasy season, the Bears’ rookie would have to have a heck of an end to his debut campaign to see drafters select him over Warren come draft day.
Marvin Harrison may have had a very disappointing, injury-plagued campaign…but there’s no way Michael Wilson goes ahead of the Cards’ 4th overall pick from 2024, even if Wilson does continue to end the year on a high.
I saved the hardest for last, as I can legit see a world where Gibbs and Bijan go No.1 and No.2 in next year’s drafts…and I don’t honestly know who will go higher. Gibbs has had the more explosive games, but Bijan’s consistency week in and week out is almost unmatched. I think the Falcons’ unremarkable record will hurt Bijan’s draft capital somewhat, and that should be enough to see him be taken behind Gibbs in drafts…especially if David Montgomery’s time in Detroit comes to an end this off-season.
Which of these Nasty Boys should I start this week: A.J. Barner or Isaiah Likely? Full PPR – Puka Kupp-a-Coffee
Answer: Whilst I don’t expect him to go full Kyle Pitts, Likely looks set for a big week this Sunday afternoon in Ohio – after back-to-back TE1 weeks, he’s heating up…and here at Ballers’ HQ we always stick to NBA JAM rules.
Yo Ballers! Do I start Josh Allen or Drake Maye this week? – Me and Julio
Answer: The answer to any start/sit question involving the greatest QB in the league today (and I say that as a Miami Dolphins fan) is the same as it is any other week – you start Josh Allen over anyone.
That will do it for this week, FootClan – good luck in your playoff matchups!