Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
In Week 4 we saw some sketchy injury reports, late scratches, and many blowouts, but I digress as that is not why you have joined me. In this week’s edition of the wide receiver deep dive we will take a look at our three major stats aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and I will be updating my PRS. I have decided that it is time to expand the list and show the top 24 in PRS so that readers can see the full list of WR1’s and WR2’s thus far within the calculation. Let’s dive right in!
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals)
aDOT: 9.6 yards
Result: 7 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 23.1 (half-PPR)
The Arizona Cardinals’ offense gave the 49ers all they could handle for 2.5 quarters before the 49ers started to hit their stride and put distance between the two sides. Joshua Dobbs has played exceptionally well for a guy who was signed off the street weeks before the season started, and that has made this Arizona offense viable for fantasy. Michael Wilson had his first boom game of his young career and he looked great. He should start to be more and more involved over the coming weeks, but with an aDOT below 10, he will need numerous receptions a game or touchdowns to be a start-worthy asset for your fantasy squad. Keep an eye on Mr. Wilson, but tame your expectations of him being a fantasy stud going forward if his aDOT stays around this range.
Underperformer: Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)
aDOT: 25.3 yards
Result: 1 reception, 4 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 0.9 (half-PPR)
It is somewhat mind-boggling that Chris Olave had a 25.3-yard aDOT and Derek Carr had an aDOT of 7.4. Derek Carr should not have played in this game because he looked atrocious and had an awful time against a stout Buccaneers defense. He decided that the best course of action in this game was to pepper Alvin Kamara with 14 targets that totaled 13 receptions for 33 yards setting an NFL record for most receptions and fewest yards. None of this is Olave’s fault, but I fear that while Derek Carr tends to his AC joint sprain, Chris Olave‘s production could be negatively affected. This could easily be the worst fantasy game of Olave’s career so managers should not panic, but may look to leave Olave on the bench until Carr and the Saints’ offense look better.
Carr’s Pass Chart….gross
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s (that I guest wrote for this week) Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 5.
Overperformer: Allen Lazard (New York Jets)
Result: 3 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.6 (half-PPR)
Zach Wilson played a good game (compared to the standard we had set for him) and all the Swifties who were tuning in to watch football for the first time may think he is better than Patrick Mahomes after they got done watching Sunday Night Football. Allen Lazard was a benefactor of this decent performance, but he may have one of the best fantasy days I have seen for a guy that had below 10% in TPRR. A touchdown saved his day of course, but that’s what touchdowns do for fantasy football. There is no way I am playing Allen Lazard right now with this type of target rate because this type of overperformance is not predictable and may only happen one or two more times this year. Stay away from Lazard until Zach Wilson (or another QB) starts to look his way more often.
Underperformer: Terrace Marshall Jr. (Carolina Panthers)
Result: 9 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.9 (half-PPR)
Borgognoni’s guy makes an appearance! TMJ was a target monster for Bryce Young on Sunday, but he only managed 54 yards on nine receptions. Not great Bob. Bryce Young has not looked like a number one overall draft pick thus far and the offense in Carolina has looked putrid besides the game that Andy Dalton played. The Panthers were calling screens left and right all day if the box was stacked up to the side of the line that a run play was called so it led to a nasty offense to watch. Nonetheless, if you play in a PPR league keep an eye on TMJ going forward, because if he continues to get a massive target share he could be flex-worthy in deeper PPR leagues.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Jahan Dotson (Washington Commanders)
Result: 4 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.7 (half-PPR)
He may not have been the most glaring overperformer of the week YPRR-wise, but I felt it was time to address the elephant in the room…I am worried about Jahan Dotson. He has not been able to get going this year and I had such high hopes for him. Hopefully, the Commanders and Sam Howell can figure out how to get him the ball more, but for now, Dotson is a desperation start at best. If you are having to play Dotson week-to-week then your team is probably hurting right now as he has had a rough go of it and has been solely dependent on touchdowns this year. If there is any time to break out this season it is Thursday night against the Chicago Bears, but I will still have him on my bench in most of my standard (shallow roster) leagues.
Underperformer: Josh Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers)
Result: 3 receptions, 77 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.2 (half-PPR)
Josh Palmer once again was called on to step up for the Chargers with Mike Williams going down with a torn ACL. He came through when it mattered most, catching a bomb from Justin Herbert on third down to seal the win against the Raiders. But for fantasy managers, he once again underwhelmed. He managed to get eight targets but only was able to bring in three of them for 77 yards (51 of them coming on the game-clinching catch). His day would have been abhorrent without the deep bomb at the end of the game and managers should just cut bait at this point. Palmer is not the kind of player that will win you a championship, and will just clog your roster as you never actually choose to play him. If you are in a deep league you can feel free to roster him, but starting him is a perilous task that I for one will not be participating in.
Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
I skimped out on the buy-low sell-high section of this article last week, but I have one for each in mind this week. The PRS is starting to round into form and we are seeing almost all the top performers start to rise to the top of the calculation. The outliers are the guys I will want to keep an eye on or make a smaller offer for.
Buy-Low: Romeo Doubs
Doubs has played well this season and seems to be one of the favorite targets for Jordan Love. He is receiving a 26.4% TPRR thus far and boasting solid YPRR and aDOT numbers with those being 1.85 and 12.2 respectively. The manager who has him may want to hang on to him right now, but I think if you can, you should make a move for him this week before they play the Raiders and it is too late!
Sell-High: DJ Moore
Go, DJ, that’s my DJ! But for real, go to another team…I am not interested in starting DJ Moore week-to-week and I think after this past week you should look to move him as well. The Denver Broncos’ defense is making all quarterbacks look like world-beaters right now so after that Justin Fields game I want to capitalize on it by shipping Moore to an unsuspecting league mate. His numbers outside of TPRR are not horrible, but last week is boosting them up. His TPRR is 16.3% but I think after last week you can still get a decent player back for DJ and that is what I would recommend. If the Bears go out and look like themselves again against the Commanders then your time to sell may have passed you by.
Top-24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 4
|Player||PRS||Predicted FP/G||Actual FP/G||Over/Under Predicted|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||71.3||13.73||14.53||0.8|
Brandon Aiyuk is a certified baller and CJ Stroud is boosting up two of his wideouts into the top-24. Many questions are left to be answered in the coming weeks, but PRS is asking a few. Should Demario Douglas get more run with the Patriots? Is Jayden Reed going to be the real deal for the Jordan Love-led Packers? Is Puka Nacua the greatest rookie wide receiver of all time!? Welp, I am ranting now so it is time for me to log off. Good luck in all your fantasy football endeavors this week!