Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 5 in the NFL.
This weekly series will give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
Week 4 saw a few high-drafted players ball out, and you don’t need me to tell you that AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, or Stefon Diggs were absolute legends this past weekend. Your window to buy low on AJ Brown has now passed, a player I highlighted here: Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances For Week 2. But let’s move on and take a look at this last weekend.
Week 4 Recap
Here’s a look at the top 25 players in TPRR with a minimum of 15 routes run (the complete list of eligible players is at the end of this article for reference).
Source: pff.com; Monday Night Football stats unavailable at the time of writing
1. Nico Collins, Houston Texans (37.5% TPRR)
Stroud Boys, stand up! CJ Stroud is looking like a decade-plus starting QB in this league and he has been dealing to his outside weapons. Nico Collins was the benefactor this week and saw a crazy high TPRR. He has been ascending ever since Week 1 and he is looking to be a player that could be in the running for best late-round pick. As long as Nico is getting accurate targets from Stroud down the field he is going to be a must-start every week going forward.
2. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (31.6% TPRR)
The fact that any player on the 49ers is even remotely in “The Good” category besides Christian McCaffrey shows how good Aiyuk has been. Brandon and Brock Purdy seem to have a great connection and he is looking his way when he drops back to pass. Aiyuk grabbed all six of his targets for 148 yards, but CMC took all the touchdowns. What is really interesting here is that Aiyuk got six of the 20 targets and George Kittle/Deebo Samuel got a combined one target (hint, Kittle got the lone one). If Deebo is going to be limited moving forward then you should really look to acquire Aiyuk if you can. It may be too late, but I do not see him going anywhere.
3. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (31.4% TPRR)
The man that everyone wanted to get rid of in dynasty or not draft in redraft has had himself a solid past two weeks. Buzz and Woody (on the Toy Story Funday Football broadcast) cheered on Christian in London as Trevor Lawrence peppered him with 11 targets. This could be due to Zay Jones missing the game, but I find it hard to believe that TLaw is going to go away from Kirk that easily. Christian Kirk was an integral part of the Jags’ offense last year, and with Calvin Ridley struggling the past few weeks, it feels as if Kirk should have some staying power for targets at a minimum.
The Not So Good
1. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (5.7% TPRR)
I don’t want to write about the same players that AJ wrote about last week, but I feel like I would be doing a disservice to the #footclan by not mentioning that it has been really bad for Ridley the past few weeks, and that continued in London. Unlike last week where none of the wideouts for the Jaguars reached 20% TPRR, this week Christian Kirk reached 30%…are we looking at a big huge bust? I sure hope not, because I am cheering for Ridley, but it has looked bad as of late. I am sitting him this week against the Bills who just made the two studs for the Dolphins look like mid-round wide receivers.
2. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (12.9% TPRR)
Ask any casual fan of the NFL who they thought would win in the Bills versus Dolphins matchup. “Oh man, the Dolphins just scored 70, hard to go against that.” Welp, Vegas and power rankings know a little bit apparently because the Bills went off as three-point favorites and they backed it up. The Bills shut down the Dolphins’ offense after the first two drives of the game ended in touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa was throwing lob passes to the Bills and the entire offense looked completely disjointed. I am not worried about their offense, but I am a bit worried about Jaylen Waddle as a fantasy asset. He has not produced thus far and it seems more likely that Tyreek Hill goes off or one of the two Miami running backs. It is something to monitor going forward.
3. Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (5.6% TPRR)
Maybe I am being mean and no one in the world even rosters Moore at this point in the season, but if you do, cut bait now! He is not putting up numbers or even involved in any part of the game plan besides jet sweep trickery. Patrick Mahomes played one of the worst games I have ever seen him play, but this Moore game is par for the course. He has not produced at all this year even when he has had golden opportunities (Travis Kelce out, Kadarius Toney banged up). Find the nearest wishing well and throw a $100 coin (if they exist) and hope that it gets better. Skyy Moore should be traded away in every dynasty league as well. It is over, he is done.
The full list:
|4||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||26||9||34.6%|
|37||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||31||6||19.4%|
|41||Calvin Austin III||PIT||28||5||17.9%|
|52||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||28||4||14.3%|
|74||DJ Chark Jr.||CAR||37||3||8.1%|
|78||Allen Robinson II||PIT||29||2||6.9%|
|85||Equanimeous St. Brown||CHI||21||1||4.8%|