Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Week 2 is in the books and it’s time to analyze the week that was so that we may look forward to the weeks to come. In this week’s edition of my deep dive look into wide receiver performances we will take a look at the three major stats of aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and as promised I will share my PRS scores for the top 12 wide receivers so far this season. I will look to mention a few players that we should target to get or trade away as well. Let’s dive right in and get to it!
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
aDOT is a crucial metric when assessing if a player is getting targets deep down the field, and we had a few extreme cases this week that I wanted to mention right off the bat. We saw two interesting outliers this week with Marvin Mims Jr. and Jalin Hyatt. Both of these players saw only two targets so their ridiculously high aDOTs over 35 yards make sense. It is good to see them starting to get shots downfield but we are going to focus more on the focal points of offenses at this time. Make sure to take note of this though and monitor their roles in their respective offenses going forward. If they do start to get more playing time then these two could see massive boom games as they get more acclimated to the NFL game.
Overperformer: Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers)
aDOT: 4.8 yards
Result: 4 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 17.7 (half-PPR)
Jordan Love has played solid football thus far in the 2023 season. He has been distributing the ball to his young playmakers and one that stood out this past week was Jayden Reed. With the absence of Christian Watson, Reed got his shot to make his impact felt on the game. Jayden ran only 18 routes but made the most of them with two touchdowns that bolstered his final fantasy numbers. If he continues to see an uptick in routes then maybe he can continue to post double-digit fantasy days, but with such a short aDOT, it is unlikely that he will see much-continued success on short routes that he house calls.
Reed was discussed in this week’s Waiver Wire episode of the show as well. Check it out here!
Underperformer: Treylon Burks (Tennessee Titans)
aDOT: 20.5 yards
Result: 3 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)
I am convinced that Brandon Staley could make me look like a 3rd string quarterback at this point. Ryan Tannehill went from looking like he may be on his way out of the NFL to a man who posted a 123 QB rating. He hit Treylon on a deep route for a 70-yard gain in the 2nd quarter that got the Titans’ offense rolling. So yes…Treylon had a catch for 70 yards and then his next two receptions were for a combined six yards. With only a 65% snap rate he did not get much action in this game, but seeing that he is a viable option down the field is promising. If Tannehill is willing to push the ball downfield as he did in this game, then there are better days ahead for a player who has deep-threat ability. If he starts to connect with Tannehill on more deep shots, then Burks could have solid fantasy days in his future.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
Week 2 saw some interesting TPRR numbers across the league. One example was Nelson Agholor posting 0.429 targets per route run after Odell Beckham Jr. was injured during the game. I do think he is an interesting flier in deeper leagues, due to the health of his receiver compadres. Odell and Rashod Bateman do not have great track records as of late, and if they miss time, Nelson could see good fantasy production in the new Todd Monken offense. He only ran 14 routes this week, but with more snaps, we could see him become a viable fantasy option.
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 3.
Overperformer: Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs)
Result: 3 receptions, 70 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.5 (half-PPR)
I have held out hope (for my dynasty team) that Skyy can come through this year and make a name for himself. Please Skyy, prove to Patrick Mahomes that you can be trusted and you are a worthwhile target in this offense. This week was nice as a manager of Skyy Moore, but I can only wear rose-colored glasses for so long! Skyy Moore saw a 0.121 TPRR and scored 14.5 fantasy points…that is just not sustainable in any fashion. He got 54 of his yards on a broken play where Mahomes found him down the sideline behind multiple Jaguar defenders, but fantasy managers should not be counting on this type of thing to happen often. With such a low TPRR he is a dangerous player most weeks, and if the targets do not start to come, then he will be a role player for the rest of the year. If you get any nibbles on a Skyy Moore trade, you should probably look to move him.
Underperformer: Kendrick Bourne (New England Patriots)
Result: 4 receptions, 29 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 4.9 (half-PPR)
Kendrick Bourne has made the weekly report two weeks in a row now! He came back down to earth this week as he saw his targets stay near double digits, but his production dipped drastically. That tends to happen when you don’t score two touchdowns. This could be the story with Bourne this year, he could be a major boom/bust player who will be dependent on touchdowns in this Mac Jones-led passing attack. But, I hold out hope that if he is earning this type of TPRR and can continue to do so, then he should be a bit safer most weeks than he showed in Week 2. I think he may hit the waiver wire in the coming weeks as the Patriots play the Jets, Cowboys, and Saints who have looked solid on defense thus far. If he does fall to the waiver wire, he could be a sneaky pickup later in the year.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
There are a lot of contenders in Week 2 for the over/underperformer of the week. One player I would like to mention is Andy’s My Guy Mike Evans. Wow…the Bears’ defense is bad and Mike Evans is still good at football. Baker Mayfield has looked extremely competent to this point and Mike Evans is having a nice resurgence back to dominance. With YPRR numbers like 6.33, he is well on his way to breaking 1,000 yards yet again. I thought he was worth mentioning with that performance, but it was not an overperformance based on the advanced numbers he posted. These guys though, did over or underperform.
Overperformer: Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)
Result: 8 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 21.9 (half-PPR)
Geno Smith and the Seahawks did their best Undertaker impression in Week 2 and rose from the dead. After the Rams’ defense held the Seahawks’ offense to 12 yards in the second half last week, people were ready to leave them for dead. We overhyped Geno, their offensive line is horrid, and Russell Wilson…is still cooked! But let us not overreact too hard to minuscule sample sizes folks. The Seahawks have talent and Geno did a great job helping that young offensive talent show. But old reliable came through once again. Tyler Lockett is as solid as the day is long and he showed why he’s been so successful in this league. The man makes plays! With all that said, his fantasy performance is massively boosted by the game going into overtime and his two touchdowns, because 1.48 YPRR is pretty horrible, to be honest. If Lockett continues to rake up receptions with limited yards, he will be dependent on touchdowns to be a fantasy horse. He is not someone I am looking to move at this time, but if this YPRR sustains for a few weeks, it may be time to look for an out if possible.
Underperformer: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detriot Lions)
Result: 6 receptions, 102 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.2 (half-PPR)
The Sun God is just ridiculous. As the kids say, he’s got that DAWG in him. Amon-Ra hauled in six of his seven targets and boasted a YPRR of 3.78. Those numbers are ridiculous. He is bringing in receptions down the field and catching the majority of them. He even posted a 100% contested catch rate just to brag a little. ARSB left in the fourth quarter, so maybe that is why I put him here, or maybe it’s because he only got to 13.2 points with such great advanced analytical numbers. All I know for sure is, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a player that I am going extremely hard after to see if I can get the current manager to budge. He should start to see his TD numbers increase year-over-year, so if he can keep up these types of numbers, he will most certainly finish as a top-eight wide receiver with top overall WR upside.
Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
Last week I introduced PRS. I promised to update it throughout the year with the current top-12 receivers on the season and throw a few buy-low or sell-high candidates at you. Hope you can catch because here they come!
Nico Collins: The Houston Texans are throwing the ball an absolute ton so far. CJ Stroud is averaging 54.5 dropbacks per game and he looks rather competent for a rookie. Nico has been the beneficiary of this and is currently the seventh WR of the year. I doubt many of the managers out there that roster Nico value him as such though, and I think he is still getable at this time. Go out and get him. The passing volume is there and Nico is a talented receiver that can finish as a high-end WR2 this year.
Jerry Jeudy: This one really could come back and bite me in the rear, but I am out on Jeudy at this point. I don’t want a player with a lingering hamstring (YOOHOO) injury and Russell Wilson looks like a QB that I don’t want to trust with my fantasy destiny this year. Jerry ran 36 routes in his one week of play and his underlying metrics were quite horrid. I think it is time to sell high now while you still have the chance.
Top-12 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 2
Amon-Ra St. Brown
That’ll about wrap it up for me. Good luck to everyone this coming week and may the fantasy gods be ever in your favor!