Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

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Week 2 is almost in the books. We’re seeing the pendulum swing on some players (hi, Tee Higgins!) and the beginning of some trends that could stick. Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 3 in the NFL. Each week, I’ll be highlighting three to five players or teams that stand out in a positive way, and I’ll do the same on the negative side of the spectrum. Starting in Week 5, we’ll shift to evaluating players based on their performance up to that point in the season.

As a reminder, this weekly series is intended to give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 2 Recap

Here’s a look at the top 25 players in TPRR with a minimum of 15 routes run (the full list of eligible players is at the end of this article for reference).

Source: pff.com; Monday Night Football stats unavailable at the time of writing

The Good

1. Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams (36.5% TPRR)

If you’re reading this, you already know. Everyone is talking about Puka Nacua this week, and for good reason. After a breakout first game, he somehow leveled up in San Fran, securing 15 receptions on TWENTY targets. Nacua is the overall WR3 through two weeks, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet! There will be plenty of articles this week that tell you to temper your expectations. Fine, history tells us to expect some regression. However, the Rams look like a team that is going to pass the ball a lot as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy; Rams receivers lead the league in total routes run after two weeks. Puka looks locked in as the WR1 for the Rams until Cooper Kupp returns.

Honorable mention: Tutu Atwell is enjoying his best start to a season and ran the most routes in the league in Week 2. The Rams play the Bengals in Week 3; if Joe Burrow is healthy and active, expect another pass-heavy game script from the Rams.

2. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29.6% TPRR)

Mike Evans doesn’t often show up on this list of TPRR leaders. With a TPRR that hovers around 20% the past few seasons, he’s proven to be the exception to the rule. Evans is just #goodatfootball. This season, however, Evans is commanding targets from Baker Mayfield at an impressive rate. At this rate, he’s a lock to again go over 1,000 yards and could easily score double-digit touchdowns, making him one of the values of drafts everywhere.

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3. Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Houston Texans

The Texans are throwing the ball. A lot. C.J. Stroud has attempted 40+ passes in both career starts, which means there are a lot of routes being run. Tank Dell saw his snap share increase to 79% in Week 2 as Houston ran more three-receiver sets, and his increased target participation could start to come at the expense of Robert Woods. It’s too early to tell exactly how the target shares will break down, but I’m siding with young, exciting talent. We should expect more passing when the Texans head to Jacksonville in Week 3.

The Not Good

1. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (18.4% TPRR)

If Calvin Ridley in Week 1 was an Amazon birthday box showing up early at your door, Week 2 was a brown bag lit on fire. Christian Kirk took center stage, snagging 11 receptions for 110 yards and commanding a 33% TPRR on 42 routes. Now, I’m not sounding the alarm or saying Kirk is the man in Jacksonville, but I am watching to see if certain matchups have a major impact on Trevor Lawrence‘s preferred targets week to week. The Chiefs looked vulnerable to the slot in Week 1, so it’s not surprising to see the Jaguars have success with Kirk this past week. I’m expecting Calvin Ridley (and Trevor Lawrence) to bounce back in Week 3 against a Houston defense that has been stronger in slot coverage than on the outside.

2. Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (9.8% TPRR)

I love the talent of Jahan Dotson, and he showed some touchdown flashes in 2022. As a rookie, his 14.9% TPRR was lower than I’d like, and he’s going to need to start commanding targets from Sam Howell for managers to feel comfortable slotting him into their lineups.

3. Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (12.1% TPRR)

After all the vitriol aimed his way after Week 1, Skyy Moore was destined to score a touchdown. A look under the surface, though, and it’s more of the same. Any Chiefs receiver could score in a given week with Patrick Mahomes under center, but Moore hasn’t shown anything to suggest he could be a regular beneficiary of those targets. Kadarius Toney (33% TPRR) still seems like the best bet for a breakout if he ever sees the field for more than 30% of the snaps.

The full list: