AFC South Divisional Podcast Recap for 2025 (Fantasy Football)
It’s time for a full breakdown of the AFC South: a group that somehow went 0-for-4 in point differential last year. That’s right, not a single team outscored their opponent. That’s only happened once in the previous decade. But that was then.
Now, we’ve got the #1 overall pick leading the Titans, a new offensive coordinator in Houston, and the Colts hedging their Anthony Richardson selection with Daniel Jones. It’s time to sift through what’s changed this offseason, what each offense could bring us in terms of fantasy goodness, and which team has the best shot to win the division.
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Go here to check out the full version of the episode on YouTube!
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC South
Houston Texans (10 – 7)
Player Additions: WR Christian Kirk, WR Justin Watson, RB Nick Chubb, TE Irv Smith Jr.
Player Subtractions: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Robert Woods
Rookies: WR Jayden Higgins (Round 2), WR Jaylin Noel (Round 3), RB Woody Marks (Round 4)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
The Texans went 10-7 last year despite leading the league in QB pressure allowed and ranking third in plays that went nowhere or worse. Forty percent of their offensive snaps ended in zero or negative yardage. That is pretty, pretty, pretty bad. C.J. Stroud was running for his life behind the 29th-ranked O-line, and things haven’t improved on paper. That unit enters 2025 ranked dead last by Sharp Football, with three new starters and no more Laremy Tunsil.
40% of offensive plays run by the Texans last year resulted in ZERO or negative yards.
I need to compare historically… but that was wildly high for a 10-win team
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 7, 2025
C.J. Stroud took a step back after an incredible rookie season, but Nico Collins cemented himself as a bona fide superstar WR, averaging 19 fantasy PPG through the first month. That’s a 17-game pace of 128 catches for 2,078 for all you kids keeping track at home.
The backfield is where the real question marks start flying because Joe Mixon blows out 29 candles this month. He was the RB1 in fantasy Weeks 1 – 11 (23.3 ppg) but fell off a cliff in the last month, finishing as the RB40 in that span. 29.5-year-old Nick Chubb joins the offense two years removed from a brutal knee injury and broken foot that ended his 2024 campaign. Woody Marks joins the room as a fourth-round selection, while Dameon Pierce is just hoping someone makes eye contact with him.
As for Stroud, he’s going much later than last year (QB15 vs QB5). Numbers don’t lie: his “great” fantasy weeks last year = zero. Strangely, he only threw to his first read 60% of the time. That’s a red flag when the offensive line play was so poor.
Nico got new friends in the WR room. The Texans sent a 7th-round pick for Christian Kirk, while veteran Justin Watson joined the party too. The intriguing pieces are rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins is Pitty City with more explosiveness, and Noel is Amon-Ra St. Brown lite. With Tank Dell on IR, there is an opportunity for fantasy production.
Dalton Schultz is technically the starting TE, but the Ballers’ sentiment is that he is not fast. To boot, he only managed three top-10 weeks last year. We are waiting for his NextGen Speed Stats because they have not yet arrived at our HQ. Houston’s defense is incredible. The pass rush ranked 4th in pressure rate over expectation, with a one-two punch of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter combining for 23 sacks. The defense sets up for another solid season.
Indianapolis Colts (9 – 8)
Player Additions: QB Daniel Jones, RB Khalil Herbert
Player Subtractions: QB Joe Flacco, TE Kylen Granson
Rookies: TE Tyler Warren (Round 1), RB DJ Giddens (Round 5), QB Riley Leonard (Round 6)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
Indy loved making fans sweat because all eight of their wins came in one-score games. Shane Steichen can feel his heated coaching seat set to the max and needs Jim Bob Cooter to make this offense better. In true Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde fashion, this offense had the eighth-most plays of 20+ yards but the seventh-most plays that lost yardage.
What is happening at QB? Great question. Anthony Richardson‘s recent shoulder injury makes the insurance signing of Daniel Jones a necessity. Richardson is going as QB25 in what may be his last chance to prove he was worth the third overall pick in the 2023 draft. Camp will have to shake out before confirmation of who will be behind center.
Jonathan Taylor won many people’s championships after going full-flame thrower and putting up the fifth-most rushing yards ever over the final three games of the season. The bad news? His pass-catching role continues to shrink as his target per route run rate has dropped every single year. Plus, Taylor was stuffed more than any other RB in the league on third and short. Behind him, Khalil Herbert and rookie DJ Giddens round out the backfield. Giddens brings a 3-down skill set and elite burst, courtesy of a 98th percentile explosiveness score. With 50 passes over his final two years at K-State, he proved he can catch the ball, too.
Familiar faces all around in the WR department. Josh Downs is going as a WR4, but Mike pointed out on the Sleepers episode that, usage-wise, there is WR1 potential. The issue: He’s only finished in the top 24 in nine of 31 career games (29%). Michael Pittman Jr. joined the elite “400-receptions through five seasons” club, along with 15 other great players, but has somehow managed just 18 career receiving TDs. That puts him dead last in that club. Alec Pierce is in a contract year but has never seen a target rate over 13%. Adonai Mitchell was targeted on 34% of his routes but caught only 44% of them. There’s plenty of gas on the logs, but it will take a QB spark to create a fantasy wildfire here.
Tyler Warren is the new shiny toy in town. The Colts spent a first-round pick on him thanks to his ability to destroy one-on-one coverage. No player in college football had more receiving yards against man coverage than Warren’s 521. The Colts were dead last in TE combined catches with 39 – expect that to increase significantly.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4 – 13)
Player Additions: WR Dyami Brown, TE Johnny Mundt, TE Hunter Long, QB Nick Mullins
Player Subtractions: TE Evan Engram, WR Christian Kirk, QB Mac Jones, WR Josh Reynolds
Rookies: WR/CB Travis Hunter (Round 1), RB Bhayshul Tuten (Round 4), RB LeQuint Allen (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
The Jaguars’ 2024 was a mess, going 4 – 10 in one-score games and finishing near the bottom of most defensive categories we can track. The offense did not fare much better. Their offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted yards before contact, making their on-field struggles all the more apparent.
Enter Liam Coen. The new head coach is hopeful of fixing some of the most inefficient units in football. The defense allowed the most yards in the league and ranked in the bottom five against fantasy QBs, RBs, and WRs. Thank goodness we have some fun rookies to root for.
Trevor Lawrence enters year four and goes as the QB20. Across the last decade, only one QB (Baker Mayfield) failed to hit 18+ fantasy points per game in each of his first four seasons and then turn it around. Lawrence could join him if he does not reach that mark in 2025.
The backfield is crowded. Travis Etienne is still the presumed lead, but goes as RB24, and it could not be more ambiguous. Tank Bigsby quietly led all RBs in yards after contact, with 72% of this total yardage coming after contact. He only has eight career receptions, though. Bhayshul Tuten adds explosiveness with 4.32 speed and outstanding contact balance, and he is a 14th-round dart if you’re feeling saucy.
At wideout, Brian Thomas Jr. is the big name. He finished second in Dominator Rating last season with 1,484 yards. He is WR8 with the side, speed, and red zone profile to shine with a new regime. Then there’s Travis Hunter. He’s a unicorn, a two-way wildcard the league has never seen, with all three Ballers projecting him for 70+ receptions but under 1,000 yards.
Travis Hunter's receiving yard line on Draft Kings is currently 725.5 👀
Are you taking the over or the under? pic.twitter.com/qT9YF4uh1h
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 7, 2025
At TE, Brenton Strange is one to monitor. In the seven games where he played at least 68% of snaps, he averaged five targets per game. With Evan Engram gone, there’s a path to relevance here.
Tennennseee Titans (4 – 13)
Player Additions: WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, QB Tim Boyle (yes, still in NFL)
Player Subtractions: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, QB Mason Rudolph
Rookies: QB Cam Ward (Round 1), WR Chimere Diker (Round 4), TE Gunnar Helm (Round 4), WR Elic Ayomanor (Round 4), RB Kalel Mullings (Round 6)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
Remember the Titans is an excellent movie. But we’d all rather Forget the Titans after last year’s squad. Their -149 point differential was the worst in the 26-year history of the Titans franchise, dating back to the good ole’ Oiler days. Coach Brian Callahan entered Year 2 with OC Nick Holz, a rookie QB, and an offense that ranked in the bottom 10 in EPA on every down. Rebuild, activated.
First overall pick, Cam Ward, is the new face of the franchise. He brings a dual-threat, “I don’t give a flip” mentality with high volatility. There are real questions about whether this staff will survive this year, though. Over the past decade, 54% of rookie QBs had a new play-caller in Year 2.
At RB, Tony Pollard is the presumed starter. He finished as RB22 last year with just five total TDs and now finds himself with a running mate nipping at his heels. Tyjae Spears is surging after a strong fantasy playoff run (RB5, 12, 13) and 105 targets across his first two seasons. There’s some significant upside there.
In the WR room, Calvin Ridley quietly put up over 1,000 yards and finished as the WR30. He’s back as the one, but the offense may cap his ceiling. Tyler Lockett, Treylon Burks, and Van Jefferson round out the veteran depth, though it’s hard to see a consistent two emerging from this bunch. Rookies Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor bring athleticism to the room. Dike averaged 18.6 yards per catch, while Ayomanor is a 6’2″ deep threat who has a case of the dropsies (15 dropped passes in the last two years). Xavier Restrepo – Ward’s former teammate – is also in the mix as a UDFA.
Chig Okonkwo is entering the final year of his deal at TE. He earned a 28% target share in the fantasy playoffs, leaving some meat on the bone if that trend continues into 2025. The Fantasy Hitman sarcastically asks, “How does this team see what Okonkwo can do if you feature him in the offense and be like, NAH. They have too many superstars like Van Jefferson and Treylon Burks.” Maybe, just maybe, Cam Ward can show the Titans’ brass that Chig deserves to be a full-time feature of the offense.