2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: QB Strategy
This article is part of a weekly series polling our fantastic team of writers for the Fantasy Footballers.
Each week leading up to Week 1’s kickoff, we will be discussing Fantasy Draft Prep tackling the biggest questions involving strategy, the ADP landscape, and how to practically begin to piece together your drafts. While it is possible to over-engineer and overthink fantasy football (trust us, we’ve all been there), having a clear vision and plan for your league draft starts right now. Spending time and mapping out a plan while working backward from your league’s draft is a framework to start with.
1. What is your general strategy in SuperFlex leagues? How much does this change your outlook on non-QB positions?
When I first started playing in superflex leagues, I completely overvalued quarterbacks, thinking that having two elite starters was essential for being competitive. While quarterbacks are certainly important, I have learned that you can still be highly competitive and win championships without top-tier quarterbacks by focusing on building a team with elite skill position players instead. The point differential between most quarterbacks is often minimal unless you have someone like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, so it’s sometimes more strategic to prioritize other positions before finalizing your quarterback room.– Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
With a surplus of floor and ceiling in the mid-tier of positional ADP, superflex QB drafting is a fairly simple “flow chart” for me this year. I’m aiming for a top-four quarterback if my draft position allows me. From there the pressure’s off, since I feel confident in just about anyone from QB9-QB15 as my QB2 while tacking on a high-upside player from QB20-QB30 as my third option. This often means I’m able to sneak-in a falling FLEX player, and if I can, I’m looking specifically for a top-5 running back. If I miss out on the top options at QB, I prefer to grab 3 QBs in that QB8-20 range, which sometimes locks me out of the top-tier wideouts and backs – that’s something I’m willing to live with. -Matt Savoca (@draftaholic)
When playing Superflex, I like to get one of the top 10 or so QBs and then capitalize on other managers’ strategies. There is a myriad of late-round QB options this season that can be paired with a Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts like a fine Merlot and cheese – perhaps an Aaron Rodgers or a Kirk Cousins, if you will. When other managers are loading up on QBs, I am taking advantage of the availability of high-end WRs or RBs. Remember, superflex is not necessarily two QBs; sometimes, another position can deliver just as well in that superflex position. Near the end of the draft and on the waiver wire, I try to pick up any other available starting QBs and/or backup QBs that stand a chance of being pulled up and inserted into the starting lineup.– Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth)
I have to tell myself the same thing every year…do not overvalue quarterbacks in Superflex leagues. If you cast your mind all the way back to January and The Ballers “The Truth About Top-10 QBs in 2023” episode, you’ll recall Andy saying that 67 individual quarterbacks started an NFL game last season, with a whopping 43 of them having at least one QB1 finish for fantasy. I like to focus on grabbing one stud at the position then load up on top tier wideouts and bell cow running backs before dipping my toe back into the quarterback pool. Jayden Daniels, Matt Stafford and Kirk Cousins are all guys I’d be more than happy with as my QB2, and they’re going around the 5/6 turn – after that I’m happy to wait until the double digit rounds and add Bananarama or Geno Smith as a depth option. If 25 or more starters are off the board by that time, I’m focusing on RB/WR depth and hoping I can find one of those 43 weekly QB1s off the waivers when I need them.-Paul Marnie (@PaulMarnie)
My strategy doesn’t change much for SuperFlex leagues. Of course, QBs are more valuable in this format, but I’m still waiting for value at the position. I would rather spend high-end picks on tried and true RBs and WRs and take the QBs that fall. The caveat is that while I don’t always like carrying multiple QBs in a standard league, I’ll happily spend three middle to late round picks at the position in a SuperFlex league. This allows me to essentially stream off my bench as the season begins to shake out and potentially gives me massive trade leverage as the fantasy playoffs approach.-Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
I always tell myself not to reach for QBs in SuperFlex leagues, but that’s easier said than done when you’re in the middle of the 2nd round and 10 quarterbacks are already off the board. So what I aim to do is draft a solid QB1 in the first two rounds and then target a riskier QB with upside in the 7th-8th round. I’ll draft my third QB in the double-digit rounds, usually an aging veteran. Using this method you can draft your stud QB ala Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow and then surround him with skill position players for the next six rounds. Then look for that risky player who could end up skyrocketing like Will Levis, Bo Nix or Justin Fields. Follow that up with a safe bet who you can start as your QB2 in case your earlier gamble doesn’t pay off like Geno Smith or Derek Carr. Remember you can wait until the second round to draft a QB. Don’t pass up on one of the stud WRs in the middle of the first round just to reach for the QB8. – Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
Editor’s Note: For more on SuperFlex Strategy, check out some of our recent articles on the subject:
- The Canons of SuperFlex Strategy
- How to Think About SuperFlex Rankings
- Dynasty SuperFlex Tiers for 2024
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: SuperFlex Thoughts & Musings
- Dynasty SuperFlex Rankings & the Strategy Behind Them
2. Which QBs are you targeting this year factoring in ADP?
While this theory could be proven wrong, I believe the tried-and-true “late-round QB” strategy that I grew up utilizing is making a comeback this season. There are plenty of highly skilled quarterbacks available after the sixth round of drafts, allowing you to prioritize other positions that I consider more crucial for building a balanced roster. In rounds 6-8, you can draft players like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love. This is the tier of quarterbacks I often target in my mock drafts, and I’m more than happy with any of them. If I decide to pass on this tier, I usually target players like Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels, and Jared Goff. I often try to pair either Purdy or Goff with Daniels, allowing me to take a “wait and see” approach with the dynamic rookie for the first few weeks of the season.– Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
The low-end QB1/top-end QB2 tier of positional ADP is absolutely stacked with weekly-QB1 upside. Dak Prescott (QB8) will throw till his arm falls off, Love looked like one of the most efficient passers in the NFL by season’s end, Purdy has one of the best offenses ever assembled around him, while Goff and Tagovailoa lead some of the NFL’s highest-octane offenses. Then there’s the rushing-QBs in Murray and Daniels, and ALL of them are going before one of the best quarterback prospects (and best starting situations) of all time in Caleb Williams. -Matt Savoca (@draftaholic)
I cannot emphasize enough how much I am targeting Kyler Murray this season. Sure, I’m a hometown girl, but the Cardinals look to be vastly improved this season with their new and improved stock of offensive weapons, in addition to Kyler being fully recovered from his injury. Oh, and remember how much that guy can run? He averaged almost 600 yards on the ground over his first three years in the league. He is currently going at the end of the sixth round on Sleeper (QB8), and he has a legitimate chance to finish in the top 3. My late-round dart throw is Will Levis, Bananarama himself. He is practically free, being drafted in the middle of the 15th round on Sleeper, and I could see him turning into this generation’s Jameis Winston when it comes to fantasy.– Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth
*Insert Trumpet Fanfare* Announcing Jared Garf! The off-season saw a slew of quarterbacks get some pretty hefty contact extensions (hang in there Dak), and in my opinion, none more deserving than King Goffrey up in Detroit. In leading the Lions to their first playoff win in 33 years, Goff finished the regular season ranked second in attempts, completions and passing yards, as well as tagging on 30 touchdowns through the air, finishing as the QB7 in fantasy…yet he’s currently being drafted as the fourteenth quarterback off the board in the tenth round! Sure, he can be somewhat Jekyll and Hyde with his home/road splits, but with 14 of the Lions 17 games being played indoors this year…I’m willing to take the risk. There’s a legitimate chance that Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs could all lead their positions in receptions in 2024…give me the guy throwing them the ball in the double digit rounds. -Paul Marnie (@PaulMarnie)
While many of my fellow fantasy managers are gravitating toward late-round quarterbacks this year, there is one top-tier QB I’m targeting in drafts – Lamar Jackson. According to the latest ADP numbers on Sleeper, Jackson is being drafted in the beginning of the 4th, and depending on league variance, could fall to the 5th round. Jackson threw a modest 24 touchdown passes last season, but he led all QBs in rushing with 821 yards, well ahead of his counterparts. As we all know, running quarterbacks are a cheat code in fantasy football, and Jackson is far and away the best dual-threat QB in the league. Add in a healthy Mark Andrews (who played in just 10 games last year) and another year in Todd Monken’s offensive system, it’s reasonable to think that Jackson accumulates close to 4,000 yards passing, 30 or more passing touchdowns plus another 800 rushing yards. Give me the quarterback with overall QB1 potential who you can draft two rounds later than Josh Allen.– Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images
I think the first name that comes to mind for me is Anthony Richardson at the 5.06. Sure there’s plenty of risk since we’ve only seen him really for 2 games in the NFL, but there’s enough from that small glimpse that should have fantasy managers willing to go digging for fantasy gold at QB. Richardson is one of a few QBs that has a real chance to finish as the overall QB1 in his range out outcomes so he’s only my list in nearly every draft this season. If I get to pick a second favorite, it’s similar but different in the risk is Jayden Daniels. Currently the QB15 off the board in the 10th-Round, Daniels brings a lot of unknown to the table but the pieces are there for fantasy goodness at the QB spot even if it isn’t great for real life NFL purposes. Daniels is walking into a situation with a decent supporting cast in Washington with an offensive coordinator that we’ve seen mobile rookie QB success with in Kyler Murray‘s QB7 finish. The best part about Daniels at his current cost is you can still grab another QB late if you’re not comfortable going into the season with him as your sole starter. I fully believe despite what the product actually looks like for real life football, Daniels will bring top-6 QB upside on a weekly basis at an extremely low cost. -Kurt Mullen (@KurtKnowsBest)
I loved Anthony Richardson last year and I’m getting similar vibes from Jayden Daniels this season. My favorite strategy is to take Daniels at his ADP and then pair him with a “safe” starter later in the draft. Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith are my favorite examples. The two veterans are surrounded with talented offensive weapons and I feel fine starting them early in the season while waiting to see if Daniels is legit. If the rookie hits, I can jettison the vet after a few weeks. If he doesn’t, I have a veteran I can trust while I prepare to stream week-to-week as needed. -Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
3. What league format is your “main league” and what makes that league special?
My main league is my home league, which I started with my group of friends in college. This is when I first got deeply into fantasy football, and it’s always more enjoyable competing against close friends. We’ve made very few rule changes since the league began. It’s a 10-team league with 0.5 PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing TD, and two flex spots. Now that I’m in several leagues with complex scoring and rules, I appreciate the simplicity of this league even more. Every year, it reminds me why I fell in love with fantasy football in the first place and keeps my passion for the game genuine and fun. It also helps maintain our friendships as we grow older, busier, and see each other in person less often. –Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
Two words: “BONANZA WEEK.” In the final week of the season, if a team outscores the entire 12-team league, they make the playoffs as an additional wild card regardless of record. We’ve also used Superflex rosters for a decade, and we use a salary cap (auction) draft with a controversial wrinkle (until 2024) that rosters were limited to a 2QB-maximum, making the strategy surrounding the Superflex position a uniquely tough value proposition. Managers naturally allotted higher-than-normal auction value to elite quarterbacks, followed by a steep drop off in value around ~QB18, very similar to 1QB drafts. We’ll see how different things are this year…. -Matt Savoca (@draftaholic)
My main league is a keeper league, where you can keep up to two players. The cost increases depending on where they were drafted and how long they have been kept. You can trade away draft picks, and our draft is live and in person every year. We have several options for lineup setups every week (I.e., single back with 3 WR, Double TE, and more), and your formation can change weekly. Free agent pickups cost money, which goes into the final pot. Once the trading partners approve a trade, the rest of the league has 24 hours to step in with a counteroffer to either party. Everyone in the league works in production – we have TV writers, assistant directors, and more. – Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth
My main league is actually one of my newest, only entering into our third year at the start of the 2024 season. It’s a 10-team, half-point, single QB, non-keeper league – but despite its relative simplicity and infancy, it’s the league I am most invested in for one reason, and one reason alone – I actually know the guys (and gal) I play with. If that sounds weird, let me explain. I live in Scotland, and despite a recent surge in popularity, the NFL is not quite as popular over here as it is in the US – so all of my previous leagues have been played out online, mostly with relative strangers. Having the opportunity to be in a league with a group of people I can interact with in real life, as well as have an in-person draft each year, has really elevated my fantasy experience and overall enjoyment of the NFL. If any members of that league happen to be reading this…I’ve taken it easy on you these first two years, that title is mine in 2024! -Paul Marnie (@PaulMarnie)
My “main league” is a 12-team, three-keeper, SuperFlex league. It’s special to me because while I am not part of the group that started the league, a co-worker invited me to join after my other long-time leagues had disintegrated. It’s my most active league and the keeper format has become my favorite way to play fantasy football. The league continues to evolve over the years and I’ve been able to bring in my brother and the best man from my wedding as league members. League members are spread all over the country, so the only thing it’s missing is an in-person draft.-Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
My main league is made up of bunch of stubborn but lovable old friends from school who don’t like change, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. Getting them to switch to a keeper league was a three-year process, but we finally made it! With the fantasy football landscape changing constantly and more intricacies being introduced, it’s kind of nice knowing my home league isn’t overly-complicated. It’s just your standard, 0.5PPR league with a group of people who love football. Now if I can only convince them to drop kickers… – Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
Shoutout to the Greatest League Ever that’s entering year 15! This 12-team half-point PPR 1QB double-flex 0.5 TE premium league is made up of fraternity brothers of mine that dates back to our days at Middle Tennessee State University. There are a few unique things that set this league apart, starting with not requiring a TE, but rather a WR/TE to make rosters pretty flexible and with only 5 bench spots it makes managers have to really make roster decisions weekly. There are no kickers or defenses, so it’s just picking skill position players every week. We have a keeper system where we can keep 2 players from the season before for one round earlier than they were drafted the year prior. This means we can’t keep 1st-Round picks or undrafted waiver wire gems. Players also can’t be kept more than two years consecutively to keep the full-blown dynasty league from forming. Overall it’s been a great way for us to stay connected throughout the years and a better chance for my league mates to remind me of my inability to win this league despite playing in more championship games than anyone else! -Kurt Mullen (@KurtKnowsBest)
Comments
Love the commentary around favorite formats. Fun article