2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Metrics That Matter
This article is part of a weekly series polling our fantastic team of writers for the Fantasy Footballers.
Each week leading up to Week 1’s kickoff, we will be discussing Fantasy Draft Prep tackling the biggest questions involving strategy, the ADP landscape, and how to practically begin to piece together your drafts. While it is possible to over-engineer and overthink fantasy football (trust us, we’ve all been there), having a clear vision and plan for your league draft starts right now. Spending time and mapping out a plan while working backward from your league’s draft is a framework to start with.
1. What piece of advice would you give mock drafters as we enter into August?
As we head into August, the best advice I can give to mock drafters is to form a game plan, but don’t get too attached to any specific strategy. Consistently getting George Pickens in the fifth round of your mocks doesn’t guarantee he’ll be available there on draft day. No matter how many mock drafts you do, the real draft will likely unfold differently. You never know when a sneaky player buried in ADP might get sniped from you or when a coveted player you thought would be unavailable slips to you on a silver platter. To prepare for this, practice multiple scenarios to stay ready for the unexpected. This might mean drafting a running back in the first round a few times, even if you feel dead set on picking a wide receiver. You never know who will fall to you and when, so keep an open mind and be adaptable. – Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
Heading into August, I would advise drafters to work on creating their personal system. Using the Fantasy Footballers rankings, move around players that you have strong views about. Star players you don’t want to forget and mark off players you want off your draft board. Draft prep is fluid, and creating a system that works for you will streamline your draft and help you pivot quickly and efficiently if the situation arises. – Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth)
The whole point of mocking is to see how different strategies will play out, so always change things up. If you don’t know your draft slot yet, make sure to mock from various spots. You also want to try different draft strategies. How does your team look if you go Zero-RB or Hero-RB? Do you like the QBs you get in the late rounds or do you prefer to grab an elite one early? There are many different ways to build a fantasy football team, so find what works best for you. -Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
It’s a Footballers staple of advice, but learn to stay water. Truly the best way to stay flexible in drafts is to mock your face off ahead of your actual draft day! Getting the reps in really matters when you’re preparing to draft, so being able to play out as many scenarios as possible can pay huge dividends when something inevitably goes sideways in your actual draft! I’m all for going in with a plan, but having pre-created branches off of your main strategy is the best way not to be panicking when you’re on the clock! -Kurt Mullen (@KurtKnowsBest)
It’s all about draft position when you start mock drafting. If you know your draft position, it’s obvious, but always mock from that specific spot and test the different ways your team can be built. Try a WR-WR-WR build and see how that rounds out, then try an RB-RB build and see what happens if you draft a QB or TE early. If you are in a league that randomizes pick selection right before your draft, make sure to mock draft from every spot. It may seem tedious to mock from the No. 10 spot then the No. 11 spot, etc..but it will help you prepare. – Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
2. What metric or statistic have you been using more frequently when evaluating players for fantasy?
Editor’s Note: With an abundance of advanced stats and terms, fantasy football can be complicated. Here is a glossary of advanced metrics and how to easily understand them.
While there are many metrics to consider for fantasy football, one I focus on closely is YPPR (yards per route run). YPPR assesses a receiver’s effectiveness by dividing their total receiving yards by the number of routes they run. This metric reveals a player’s productivity on a per-route basis, identifying those who make the most of their opportunities. This is especially useful because it can help identify diamonds in the rough, such as Dontayvion Wicks or Bo Melton of the Green Bay Packers. Despite limited snaps, these players are targeted at an extremely high rate on par with Jayden Reed.
This metric shows how effective these players are at getting open and how much trust their quarterback has in them, despite their limited playing time. While it might not always uncover breakout players, it can highlight those who at least appear to deserve an increased role in their offense.– Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
I love to look at red zone targets for WRs. There are a lot of pass-catchers that can catch the football at the 30-yard line and turn on the gas to score, but once you get in closer, trust really comes into play. Who the QB looks for when there is potential to score is not just about talent, it is about chemistry and trust. This stat can also help you look at who might be due for some positive TD regression. For instance, Calvin Ridley had 25 red zone targets last season, the second most behind CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams (tied at 27), but he was disappointing for fantasy owners. However, if he had converted a few more of those red-zone targets it would have been a different story. – Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth)
I’ve been leaning into efficiency stats that describe how well players perform per carry, per target, per attempt, etc. These metrics are a way to evaluate a player’s talent and situation, as opposed to counting stats that can often be inflated for players who stay healthy for a full 17-game season. It’s also a way to spot outliers and decide if they are repeatable, which is the entire premise of my “Anomaly or New Norm” article series. -Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
I’m looking at red zone carries, specifically within the 10 to see which players were getting the most scoring opportunities. It can tell us about players who may have underperformed despite getting good looks near the end zone (paging Tony Pollard) and TD-dependent RBs whose numbers may have been boosted by unrepeatable scoring numbers. Some players like Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon expect to be there, but players like Gus Edwards and Raheem Mostert (both scored 13 touchdowns within the 10) likely won’t replicate those numbers. – Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
3. What players are you avoiding in the early rounds (1-3) this year?
A key point to remember in fantasy football is that you can love a player but dislike their draft cost. In the first three rounds, you are likely selecting highly talented players who will add tremendous value to your team. However, this doesn’t mean they’re always the best pick available relative to others. I tend to avoid onesie position players in these early rounds, opting instead to stock up on elite running backs and wide receivers. This year, this strategy includes passing on Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Sam LaPorta, and Travis Kelce. While these players are likely to be positional advantages, both quarterback and tight end positions are deep enough this year to find strong value in later rounds, allowing you to build your roster more strategically. Additionally, I’ve been avoiding players like Josh Jacobs, De’Von Achane, Stefon Diggs, and Drake London in the first three rounds. Specifically, London’s current ADP of 2.06 is too high for my comfort, given the risks associated with selecting him that early.– Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
This year might be the return of the late-round QB. Fantasy managers were disappointed with much of the QB results last season, as many managers splurged on a Jalen Hurts or a Patrick Mahomes early. Sure, you could do that again this season, but may I interest you in Kyler Murray and his rushing upside in the 7th round? Or perhaps Jared Goff with an incredible starting schedule in the 10th round? Want to wait even longer? Will Levis has upside and is currently in the 15th round, and Geno Smith has been left for dead. Save those QBs until later and load up on the other positions.– Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth)
I’m staying away from the second-round tight ends. Sam LaPorta has taken the reign as TE1 off the board, but he’ll need another record-setting season to pay off his price. I’ve been fading Travis Kelce at his inflated ADP for years and even though it’s not as high as previous seasons, I’m not buying the dip. With other viable tight ends like Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid available multiple rounds later, I’d prefer to spend my early-round picks elsewhere.-Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
I think I’m in the minority here, but I’m avoiding Puka Nacua. He’s being drafted as the WR7, which I agree is a fair spot, but I’d rather take an RB like Jahmyr Gibbs or Kyren Williams if I’m drafting near the end of the first round. I don’t think his historic rookie season is repeatable and with Cooper Kupp back in the fold I see the offense as more of a split between the two WRs than a heavy reliance on Nacua. I’d rather draft Kupp two rounds later.– Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
Sam Laporta is way too expensive to me compared to other great options you can get in rounds 4-6. Touchdowns inflated his fantasy production and they are too variable from year to year. I also believe Marvin Harrison Jr. is going too high this year. He’s currently being drafted as a WR1 and he would have to have a historic rookie season to meet his high standards. I’d rather draft proven receivers like Deebo Samuel and Nico Collins who have a higher ceiling and top-5 upside. – Jack Reinhart (@JackJReinhart)