The 2023 NFL Draft Betting Guide: Mock 2.0 (Fantasy Football)
The 2023 NFL Draft is just a week away! The first round kicks off on Thursday, April 27, and there’s still a lot to unfold in regards to how the first round might look. Because betting on the NFL Draft is an information based market, it can be extremely valuable to source Big Boards and mock drafts of the top NFL Draft scouts and companies around the industry. While that’s one piece of the equation, the betting market can also be an indicator of the top 32 picks each year.
In this mock draft, I used betting odds from various sportsbooks and information from around the industry to try to figure out what the first round might look like on Thursday night. These are not necessarily my personal predictions. However, if you’re interested in our process and official plays, be sure to check out our 2023 NFL Draft Props article and listen to The Fantasy Footballers DFS and Betting Podcast, which drops every Friday. You can find my Mock 1.0 here. Without further ado, Mock 2.0 is live!
*Odds accurate at time of publishing*
1. Carolina Panthers – QB Bryce Young
Betting Market: Number 1 Overall Pick (-1200)
Analysis: No need to get cute here. We’ve seen a ton of line movement (was -300 last week) for the Bama QB to be the first pick.
2. Houston Texans – EDGE Tyree Wilson
Betting Market: Number 2 Overall Pick (+270)
Analysis: In my previous mock, this was C.J. Stroud, and I still believe there’s a chance ownership steps in and forces a QB selection. However, there’s been plenty of buzz that the Texans could go defense with this pick. NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein, who is plugged into Houston, previously mocked Tyree Wilson here. I don’t view Will Anderson as a lock to be the first defensive player taken as the betting markets seem to imply.
3. Arizona Cardinals – EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
Betting Market: Number 3 Overall Pick (+300)
Analysis: I certainly think it’s possible the Cardinals trade back, and they reportedly want to move back. However, there’s been some buzz that the NFL isn’t as sold on these QB prospects. Adam Schefter publicly mentioned he doesn’t think we see more than two QBs off the board in the first four picks. If Arizona can’t move this pick, they’ll take best player available on their board. With so many needs on both sides of the ball, this pick is a wild card, but a lot of big boards around the industry have the Alabama pass rusher as a top five player in the draft, and in the betting markets, his over/under is 3.5.
4. Indianapolis Colts – QB Will Levis
Betting Market: Number 4 Overall Pick (+130)
Analysis: The Colts have claimed they don’t need to trade up to get their guy, and this ESPN report claims the Colts view Levis as more of a day one starter than Anthony Richardson. Based on multiple reports, I do think Levis is their guy so he’s the pick for GM Chris Ballard. Indy has met with all of the top QB prospects multiple times (Combine, Pro Days, Private workouts, etc.), and it’s certainly possible they have Levis over Stroud on their big board, even though that may be crazy to some. Levis’ over/under is 6.5 with the under juiced to -200 on DraftKings.
"I put my mock draft out on Tuesday, and the biggest feedback I've gotten from around the league is…don't sleep on Will Levis and the Colts."
– @Pschrags pic.twitter.com/Fdn69W3PS7— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) April 20, 2023
5. Seattle Seahawks – CB Devon Witherspoon
Betting Market: First cornerback drafted? Devon Witherspoon (-200)
Analysis: The Seahawks are a team that’s linked to Anthony Richardson, but in this exercise, they pass on QB and take some “win now” players. In this ESPN report, there’s a strong belief that the team addresses their front seven with this selection, but Seattle has been burned by taking guys with off the field concerns in the past. Maybe they’ve learned their lesson and pass on Jalen Carter? Matt Miller wrote, “here’s one more Seattle nugget that throws a wrench in that: I was told it loves cornerback Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) if the top pass-rushers are gone.”
6. Detroit Lions – CB Christian Gonzalez
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Cornerback (-200)
Analysis: In my Mock 1.0, I had Detroit taking Witherspoon, but with Seattle taking the Illinois corner one pick prior, they “settle” for Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon. His over/under is 8.5 the under juiced to -150 on Caesars. Gonzalez also made Schrager’s “If you know, you know” list – see below. Gonzalez is -200 on FanDuel to be a top 10 pick.
7. Las Vegas Raiders – QB C.J. Stroud
Betting Market: N/A
Analysis: A bit off the board here, but the drum beat has been consistent on two things: 1) The Texans may not take a QB at 2 (unless Bryce Young is somehow there), and 2) The Colts seem very high on Will Levis. If those two scenarios play out, there’s a real possibility C.J. Stroud is the third QB off the board. While that seems unfathomable as of a few weeks ago, it seems like a non-zero chance at this point in the process. Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contract is very easy to move on from next year, making it possible Stroud is the future starter in Las Vegas. Remember, the Raiders tried to trade up to the Number 1 overall pick before Chicago traded the pick to Carolina.
8. Atlanta Falcons – EDGE Nolan Smith
Betting Market: Number 8 Overall Pick (+250)
Analysis: The Georgia EDGE defender is tied with with Bijan Robinson on sportsbooks to be taken 8th overall. When you consider that Atlanta has been dead last in sack rate in back-to-back seasons, it makes a ton of sense. Peter Schrager mentioned on Good Morning Football that Smith “is a top 10 pick.” He had him at No. 8 to Atlanta in his first mock draft. Smith’s over/under is 13.5 with the under juiced to -210 on Caesars and -250 on FanDuel. He’s also +150 to go in the top 10 on DraftKings.
THE IYKYK LIST.
After speaking with GMs around the league, here’s my 5 prospects who will go higher than they’re currently being placed in mock drafts… pic.twitter.com/je88eeh1qN
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) April 13, 2023
9. Chicago Bears – G Peter Skoronski
Betting Market: Number 9 Overall Pick (+340)
Analysis: In the betting markets, Jalen Carter is the favorite to be the 9th overall pick, but Skoronski isn’t far behind. In his recent mock draft, Adam Caplan wrote, “word around the NFL is that he truly is one of 12-13 players who carry a true first-round grade for this draft. Each year, teams typically have anywhere from 10-15 players who have been graded with a first-round value, according to personnel sources.” Skoronski’s over/under is 10.5 while Chicago is -170 on Caesars to draft an offensive lineman with their first pick.
10. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Jalen Carter
Betting Market: Team to Draft Jalen Carter? Philadelphia Eagles (+600)
Analysis: Philly can go any number of directions with this pick. They’re a popular candidate to trade back in NFL circles, but for this exercise they stay put. Under GM Howie, the Eagles have historically built through the trenches, and that continues in 2023 with Georgia’s Jalen Carter. Yes, he’s got some off the field concerns, but if there’s one GM and coach picking in the top 10 who’s jobs are secure for multiple seasons and can embrace some risk for upside, it’s Howie Roseman and Nick Siriani. Let’s also connect some dots here – Philadelphia took two of Carter’s teammates, LB Nokobe Dean and DT Jordan Davis, last year, and there’s been two notable media members linking Carter to Philly. Lance Zierlein was on the Establish The Run Podcast and mentioned that Carter views Davis as a mentor while Adam Schefter was recently on 97.5 The Fanatic’s The John Kincade Show and said, “When you talk to people around that Georgia program, they say that one guy – maybe the one guy – that kept Jalen Carter really in line was Jordan Davis. When he was around Jordan Davis, he was on some of his best behavior. Philly would have that advantage, bringing Carter to Philly and having Jordan Davis as a guy that could help out there.”
Potential options at pick 10 for #Eagles based on top 30 visits so far:
EDGE Lukas Van Ness
EDGE Nolan Smith
DT Jalen Carter
OL Peter Skoronski
OL Paris Johnson
RB Bijan Robinson
CB Joey Porter Jr.#NFLDraft2023— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) April 16, 2023
11. Tennessee Titans – QB Anthony Richardson
Betting Market: Team to Draft Anthony Richardson? Tennessee Titans (+200)
Analysis: Every year we see one QB fall later than expected. I don’t feel confident that it’s AR15, but it is worth noting Lance Zierlein said on Twitter that he thinks there’s a strong chance a QB could fall into the 20s. I don’t have one falling that far in this mock, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the big four QBs fall. Will Levis seems like the most likely to drop if the Colts for some reason don’t take him at 4. Richardson is -125 to be a top 5 pick, but his over/under is 4.5 with the over currently sitting at -250, so this is certainly against consensus. At the same time, Tennessee is the favorite to land Richardson in the betting market and they’re +150 to take a QB with their first selection.
12. Houston Texans – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Betting Market: First WR Drafted? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-250)
Analysis: JSN is the heavy favorite to be the first WR drafted in 2023, and the Texans are the betting favorite to take the Ohio State product, so this pick definitely makes sense when you look at betting odds. It is worth noting that after the Patriots (+500) and the Packers (+500) are the next most likely team to take Smith-Njigba, and on Twitter, Lance Zierlein said he expects him to go in the 12-15 range. His over/under is also at 12.5, so there’s plenty of signal that this is the sweet spot for this year’s WR1.
13. New York Jets – OT Paris Johnson
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player? Offensive Line (-300)
Analysis: New York is -300 on FanDuel to select an offensive lineman with their first draft pick, and with Skoronski off the board, they take Paris Johnson out of Ohio State. New York has met with multiple of the top offensive linemen in the draft, so I don’t feel confident that he’s their target, but in this exercise, he’s available and fits a team need. In addition, GM Joe Douglas his historically prioritized offensive and defensive linemen in the draft. That trend continues in 2023.
14. New England Patriots – OT Darnell Wright
Betting Market: Darnell Wright Draft Position U15.5 (-235)
Analysis: The Patriots have a number of needs, so they could go a number of directions with this pick. Wright is flying up draft boards and even a trendy sleeper to be the first offensive lineman taken. While that’s not the craziest thing in the world, it seems somewhat unlikely. That said, I do think Wright could go in the top 15 based on the buzz he’s getting. For reference, his EDP on GrindingTheMocks is 17.8, but this trend line is even stronger. New England is +300 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick, +250 to take a corner and +200 to take a WR.
15. Green Bay Packers – EDGE Myles Murphy
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player? Defensive Line (+200)
Analysis: The Packers are a real wild card with this pick. If JSN is available, he makes sense to give Jordan Love another weapon, and they’re also in the running to be the first team to take a TE (+300) if they view Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid as a difference maker. They could even take offensive lineman (+300). The fact that these odds are all so close together means one thing – no one knows what Green Bay is going to do.
16. Washington Commanders – RB Bijan Robinson
Betting Market: Team to Draft Bijan Robinson? Washington Commanders (+1000)
Analysis: Antonio Gibson is in a contract year (and the team seems to have soured on him as a long-term solution), and Brian Robinson was only a mid round pick last season. This GM has shown us he’s very willing to draft running backs before during his days in Detroit, drafting a RB in the first three rounds in six of his eight seasons as a GM. Robinson’s over/under is 12.5 on FanDuel with the over sitting at -180. The consensus around the league is that Bijan isn’t going to last past pick 20. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah recently did an AMA (ask me anything) on Reddit and was asked about Robinson possibly going to Philly. His response: “A team like the Eagles picking 10th who are a Super Bowl team could work. I can make the case the Eagles should take him, but having worked there I know they won’t.” If he doesn’t go to Atlanta, and he doesn’t go to Philly, the landing spots before 20 for Bijan run out very quickly, so that’s why I have him here at Washington.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Joey Porter Jr.
Betting Market: Joey Porter Jr. Draft Position O16.5 (-200)
Analysis: Every year it feels like the Steelers telegraph their first round selection. They haven’t been shy about meeting with a lot of the top offensive linemen and corners in this draft throughout the pre-draft process, and in this mock, the top linemen are already off the board. As a result, they snag Joey Porter Jr., who has obvious connections to the organization thanks to his dad. Porter’s draft position on DraftKings is O16.5 (-200), and on Caesars it’s U19.5 (-150). This 16-20 range seems to be the sweet spot for the Penn State corner.
18. Detroit Lions – DT Calijah Kancey
Betting Market: N/A
Analysis: About three weeks ago, Kancey was a guy who was flying up draft boards thanks to his performance at the NFL Combine. The buzz seems to have cooled on him just a little bit, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall into the mid 20s of the real NFL Draft. However, it is worth noting he’s still -200 on FanDuel to be a first round pick, and he was mocked to 18 by Mel Kiper and Todd McShay earlier this week.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OT Broderick Jones
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman (+175)
Analysis: Another 2023 wild card, the Bucs have many holes to fill on this roster, but the betting favorite right now is an offensive lineman. Broderick Jones’ draft position props is O13.5 (-205) on DraftKings. There’s also been some chatter that Jones may not go as high as guys like Skoronski and Paris Johnson, so he “slides” a little bit here to 19.
20. Seattle Seahawks – EDGE Lukas Van Ness
Betting Market: N/A
Analysis: The consensus thought process right now is that Seattle will address their defensive line first then maybe corner later (or WR), but what if the reverse happens here? Van Ness is a talented pass rusher who could very easily go higher on this. When Lance Zierlein appears on the ETR podcast, he was asked who the NFL is higher on than the media might think. His first answer? Lukas Van Ness.
21. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jordan Addison
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+125)
Analysis: I wrote all about Jordan Addison’s connection to the Chargers WR coach, Chris Beatty in my Mock 1.0, and last week the Chargers were +165 to take a WR with their first selection. The market has moved towards LA taking another pass catcher, which makes sense given Keenan Allen is getting a bit older and Mike Williams is only signed through 2024. Lindsey Thiry, who covers LA for ESPN, notes that the Chargers are “anticipated to go with an offensive skill player” while Jordan Reid writes, “Sources close to the Chargers have been adamant about the team targeting a pass-catcher in the early rounds.”
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
22. Baltimore Ravens – CB Deonte Banks
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+100)
Analysis: The Ravens are now favored to take a corner with their first pick, and Deonte Banks is a guy who tested extremely well at the NFL Combine, raising his stock. Banks was mocked 19th in Peter Schrager’s recent mock, 17th in Adam Caplan’s recent mock and 25th in Kiper and McShay’s mock, so this is certainly the range for the Maryland CB. Baltimore needs to find a replacement for Marcus Peters.
23. Minnesota Vikings – CB Emmanuel Forbes
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+175)
Analysis: Corner and wide receiver are both tied at +175 as the most likely selection for the Vikings. When you look at their depth chart, it makes a ton of sense, and I could see it going either way. Forbes is a guy who’s flying up draft boards, and the betting markets agree. He’s -180 to be a first round pick over on FanDuel.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars – EDGE Will McDonald IV
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Defensive Lineman (+250)
Analysis: The Jaguars have used the vast majority of their top 30 visits on edge defenders and cornerbacks, so I could see either position being the pick. Worth noting, corner is the favorite in the betting market (+175). In this mock, they land McDonald. On a recent episode of Prospect to Pros on The Athletic Football Show, McDonald was mocked to the Chiefs at 31. Zierlein claims McDonald will be “gone way before that.”
25. New York Giants – WR Zay Flowers
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+125)
Analysis: I also think it’s a strong possibility that the Giants could take a cornerback with this pick if they have one higher on their board than Zay. Flowers‘ over/under is 22.5 on most books
26. Dallas Cowboys – TE Michael Mayer
Betting Market: First TE Drafted? Michael Mayer (-175)
Analysis: We’ve see a big shift in the first TE market over the last few days with the former Notre Dame TE now the betting favorite. Lance Zierlein has suggested it’s possible Dalton Kincaid falls a bit in the draft due to his inability to workout during the pre-draft process because of a back injury. Mayer’s draft position is O21.5 (-180) and the Cowboys are the favorite to draft Mayer at +350 on FanDuel.
Michael Reaves/Getty Images
27. Buffalo Bills – DT Mazi Smith
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Defensive Line (+150)
Analysis: Smith is a guy who’s been trending up on draft boards and is considered a fringe first rounder. He fits the betting market and the team needs here as Buffalo will need to plan to replenish their defensive line. Buffalo’s top four defensive tackles are all free agents after 2023.
28. Cincinnati Bengals – TE Dalton Kincaid
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player? Tight End (+150)
Analysis: Irv Smith Jr. is there on a one-year deal, but that doesn’t mean they won’t invest in the position via the draft. There’s reports that the Bengals actually tried to re-sign Hayden Hurst before he agreed to a deal with Carolina, so they clearly value the position. Kincaid would give the Bengals another legit receiving threat as he’s widely considered the best receiving TE in the class. Kincaid’s over/under on Fanduel is 24.5 with the over juiced to -180.
29. New Orleans Saints – DT Bryan Bresee
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player? Defensive Lineman (+100)
Analysis: The Saints lost multiple starters on the defensive line in free agency, so it makes sense that they may be looking for a replacement in this range. Bresee has fallen a bit throughout the pre-draft process, but according to sportsbooks, he’s still -180 to be a first round pick.
30. Philadelphia Eagles – S Brian Branch
Betting Market: N/A
Analysis: Branch didn’t test all that well at the NFL Combine, but the general consensus around the league is that his tape is fantastic. Philly lost Chauncey-Gardner Johnson in free agency, and Darius Slay’s contract is setup to be more of a short term deal. They get the nickel corner/safety hybrid out of Alabama in the late first. Worth noting, this is also a prime trade out spot for Philly if a team wants to come up and get someone like a Hendon Hooker in Round 1.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Anton Harrison
Betting Market: Position of Team’s First Drafted Player? Offensive Lineman (+175)
Analysis: KC is a team that could take OL, a pass rusher or even a WR, but the general consensus around the NFL is that the WR class isn’t thought of very highly. However, it is worth noting that Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers both have worked out with the Chiefs recently, so they’re at least interested. Harrison is a fringe Round 1/Round 2 player on most big boards, but he’s -430 on FanDuel to be a first round pick.