2024 NFL Win Totals: Taking an Early Under
The Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting podcast made its triumphant return on Friday highlighting our biggest questions before the 2024 NFL Draft.
However, we also ended the episode with an early win total bet we felt some conviction with. This article is a chance to give a full (and FREE) rationale of our thoughts before the NFL Draft.
For our full win total bets, the Ultimate Draft Kit+ is available now with instant access to our NFL Draft Props, the Dynasty Pass, and the DFS Pass for in-season DFS content and props.
Win Totals
As I highlighted in NFL Win Totals & Schedule-Adjusted Forecasting for 2024, the process of looking at a team’s schedule, comparing it to early NFL win totals from sportsbooks, and finding inefficiencies in the market is a nuanced decision. Give that article a full read if you are unfamiliar with the process of NFL schedules and how to make forecasts for win totals.
We’ve had success over the last few years finding an early under on teams the sportsbooks seem to be a bit more bullish on. In 2022, the Arizona Cardinals were the biggest discrepancy in my schedule-adjusted forecasts taking under 9.5 wins before they finished the season at … 4-13. In 2023, it was the Carolina Panthers we pounded the table for as their 7.5 wins with a rookie QB was smelling a bit funny. The under hit in November with one of the least efficient offenses of all time.
For 2024, there is another team we like to hit the under on their early win totals: the Washington Commanders. We gave it out on the podcast as Washington U6.5 wins +104 on FanDuel and +100 on DraftKings & ESPNBet.
Here is the rationale for it:
The Schedule-Adjusted Forecast
Let’s walk through their 17-game schedule and you can make the assumption yourself. The Commanders’ early schedule-adjusted forecast in my article was just 5.5, by far the lowest total projected in the NFL. Instead of just tallying them up as “win… oh that’s a loss”, give Washington some percentage chance. There are no automatic wins in the NFL. The spreads and money line implied odds reflect this in the betting world.
| NFC EAST Annuals | |||||
| DAL | PHI | NYG | @ DAL | @ PHI | @ NYG |
From a win totals view, the Cowboys (10.5) and Eagles (10.5) are way out in front compared to the Giants (6.5) and Commanders (6.5). Last year the Commanders air-balled in the NFC East:
| Week | — | Opp | Opponent | Washington | Result |
| 4 | @ | Philadelphia Eagles | 34 | 31 | L |
| 7 | @ | New York Giants | 14 | 7 | L |
| 8 | vs. | Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 31 | L |
| 11 | vs. | New York Giants | 31 | 19 | L |
| 12 | @ | Dallas Cowboys | 45 | 10 | L |
| 18 | vs. | Dallas Cowboys | 38 | 10 | L |
Expecting a repeat of that for this exercise is not helpful. 0-for-6 is plausible but let’s just give the case of them winning a few or even splitting(!) for this under exercise. The NFC East is not only a much publicized division (I mean it’s the Cowboys) but closer than you might imagine week-to-week. For example, the annual NFC East divisional matchup of the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team takes place both in Lincoln Financial Field (PA) and FedEx Field (MD), and while the public may think Philadelphia is clearly a better team in 2024, it doesn’t mean the Commanders have no shot to win either game. You might say the Commanders have a 35 percent chance at home and think there’s no way they win on the road. But probability-wise both should hover closer to that median range of 40-to-60. You may have forgotten but Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders won in Philly in 2022. Yes, during their Super Bowl run, the Eagles were waxed at home. Last year? Sam Howell and the Commanders played two absolute barn-burners against the Eagles losing 34-31 in Philly and 38-31 at home.
The Giants? Those games are tough to project with Daniel Jones returning to arguably the most boring offense in the NFL. Nevertheless, walking through the NFC East gives you a picture of how hard it is in-division.
| DIV MATCHUP 1: AFC North | |||
| CLE | PIT | @ BAL | @ CIN |
Good luck! The AFC North is a blood bath every single year as these are the most physical defensive teams in the NFL. With a young rookie QB, the Commanders should be favored in none of these games. Do they have a chance to go 1-3 or 2-2 in these games? Sure. But when the spreads come out, expect Baltimore to be a heavy home favorite, Cincinnati to sit at 5 or more points, and the Browns on the road should be favored by more than 4 points. Add all that up and you can see easily see this Commanders team with one or fewer wins in these AFC North matchups. It’s not promising.
| DIV MATCHUP 2: NFC South | |||
| ATL | CAR | @ NO | @ TB |
This divisional matchup definitely looks more promising. The NFC South was “won” last year by a Buccaneers team on the final week of the season. New Orleans and Atlanta technically had a shot entering Week 18 but these top three teams should be closely lumped together. Atlanta is currently the favorite to win the division. The road games in New Orleans and Tampa Bay are rough while Atlanta and Carolina certainly are on the table as competitive matchups. The Dan Quinn reunion will be interesting as a headline grabber.
| 4th Place Games | ||
| MIN | TEN | @ ARI |
While all three of these teams are picking within the first 11 picks of the draft, they also are by no means easy outs. All three carry the same win total (6.5) as Washington according to the Sportsbooks. But my schedule-adjusted forecasts are sharing a different story with all three leaning towards the over: Arizona (6.9), Tennessee (6.9), and Minnesota (7.2). The Cardinals should be vastly improved from last year’s squad which didn’t have Kyler Murray until the 2nd half of the season. Arizona likely will be drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with Murray. The Titans brought in a number of offensive weapons in free agency vastly improving their underwhelming unit from a year ago. Minnesota is a wild card depending on their QB situation but Kevin O’Connell is one of the better schemers in the NFL and the offensive skill position weapons at WR are clearly top notch with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Beyond mere narrative-based arguments, these “4th place games” are much tougher draws than 4th place teams like that get to play bottom feeders like Carolina or New England who lack offensive skill difference-makers.
Reason 2- Defensive Head Coaching Hire
Beyond the schedule, this is probably an even stronger narrative point that stays with me. There is a ton of assumptions about the Commanders and a “nowhere to go but up” mindset. When we are projecting, it is not always an up-or-down but horizontal changes often occurs way more than we realize. What if the Commanders remain just meh?
You might say, “Dan Quinn ain’t gonna let that happen! This is a new regime. They know what they are doing.”
We’ve ranted about this before and it’s a subject we brought to light at the beginning of our off-season Coaching Changes episode in late February. Non-offensive head coaching hires have not turned out so well. Why do I constantly have this objection? It beckons your organization to find an offensive head coach who is able to do each of the following:
- Lead the entire offensive side of the ball and command a room
- Game plan and scheme (often with lingering input from a head coach)
- Stay with the team*
That last qualification* presents an interesting conundrum for these teams: if you are an effective offensive coordinator, expect to get poached ASAP by other teams. The best OCs in the game were likely taken from a McVay or Shanahan staff but those two NFC West teams keep chugging along thanks to a head coach who doubles as an offensive mastermind. There are very few examples of non-offensive head coaches who last long beyond the outlier GOATS named Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, and John Harbaugh. It is a revolving door of either being poached or ineffectiveness when someone is basically given the entire reins of the offensive room. Houston’s Bobby Slowik was a bright and shining beacon in a mostly dim world.
Since 2018, we looked at every non-offensive head coach hire in the NFL. We compared the points per game and yards allowed but more importantly, the win totals. (That’s what we’re here for, right?)
Welp, not so good. In Year 1, only FOUR of the 16 teams surpassed their win totals:
- 2018 Mike Vrabel– He caught fire with Ryan Tannehill and company.
- 2019 Brian Flores– I mean is winning 5 games significant?
- 2020 Ron Rivera– Yep, this will be the pushback from Commanders fans. Look what Rivera did?! The team won the division (at 7-9) and bought him another three years on the job.
- 2023 DeMeco Ryans– What a fun Texans team.
In the betting world, 75% is an insane hit rate but the bigger point is how these coaches have not worked out period in the NFL. On a long enough timeline, yes, every single coach will be labeled fired but walk through that list again. Does a non-offensive head coach move the needle for win totals? For the most part, nope.
Reason 3- Can Backwards Hat Dan Fix the Defense?
Let me reiterate how bad the Commanders’ defense was last year:
- 32nd- Points Allowed
- 32nd- Yards Allowed
- 32nd- EPA per Play
- 31st- Pressure Rate
- 29th- Explosive Pass Rate Allowed
You can always use the “nowhere to go but up” for any statistical measure but when we look at the personal of the Commanders on the defensive side of the ball, I have a hard time meshing that with “Gamblin’ Dan” and his heavy mean schemes. Quinn’s defenses with Dallas (and Seattle) have been known for big plays, especially in the secondary. You not only need a top-notch pass rush to accomplish heavy man schemes but a willingness to use CBs in risky situations.
Per FantasyPoints’ Data Suite, Dallas’ 39.4% rate of man coverage ranked 3rd in the NFL (behind only NE & NYG) and Cover 1 was utilized, 34.1% of the time, the highest in the NFL.
While Ron Rivera’s boys tried to play defense last year, they lacked the pass rush and playmakers in the secondary to accomplish what they wanted in man coverage. The team shipped off All-Pro EDGE rusher Montez Sweat to Chicago mid-season and a number of key late-season injuries to LBs Jamin Davis and Cody Barton exposed the run game. 2023 1st round pick Emmanuel Forbes was a toothpick on the field (180 lbs) and the team did not feel comfortable with him on an island. He played in just 14 games including two inactives and four games with fewer than 10% of the snaps. CB Benjamin St. Juste- allowed the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL and his lone skill is being tall (6’3″) for a cornerback. That might be blunt but the team started him out in the slot, moved him outside, and it was clear he was juste a punching bag for the other teams.
Their best defensive player (CB Kendall Fuller) is now a Miami Dolphin and Safety Kamren Curl (who made a name for himself from a former 7th-round pick in 2020 to one of the leaders of this defense) is now a Ram. Bye bye! While the defensive interior is manned once again by the likes of DTs Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen, who is going to be able to get consistently to the QB? Casy Toohill had a “5 sack campaign” last year but five years into the league, he is a journeyman at best. Expect Washington to use one of the 2nd round picks to address EDGE/DE. The signings this off-season include failed former top-5 picks (DEs Clelin Ferrell and Dante Fowler Jr.), impending 34-year-old LB Bobby Wagner, ILB Frankie Luvu, and replacing Curl at safety with former Panther Jeremy Chinn. The moves are stop-gaps but none of these players besides Luvu are guarantees to be on the roster in 2025.
Unless they strike gold in the 2nd round with their draft picks, the secondary is going to continue to be a major issue if Dan Quinn continues to lean into a man-heavy approach. You need talent at two positions (pass rush and cornerback) and you could easily argue Washington is bottom-5 or even dead last in both those categories entering the NFL Draft. This ain’t a one-year turnaround… it’s a reclamation project that needs personnel more than just a scheme.
Conclusion
I honestly could’ve added another layer to this as bringing in a big argument on rookie QB performance and win totals or the fact that Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator was… a choice. For fantasy, we might be ok because the 2023 version of the Commanders provided us with some truly putrid performances. The Washington Commanders became the 1st NFL team since 2015 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and yet NOT contribute a top-20 RB, a top-24 WR or a top-12 TE for fantasy. Woof. Regardless of the offensive projection with a rookie QB (Daniels or Maye), Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson Jr., ineffectient WRs (Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin), and a bag of bones at TE (Zach Ertz), it’s hard projecting this unit to be truly difference-making apart from an insane outlier performance from their rookie QB ala Robert Griffin III.
The divisional odds are rough and the schedule is not as kind as it should be for a “4th place” team. Add those factors in with a non-offensive head coach hire and a defense void of top-end talent and the Commanders U6.5 is easily my favorite win totals bet before the NFL Draft.