Top 10 WR Rankings Episode

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What could go wrong? Find out what separates the elite WRs on today’s fantasy football podcast! How concerning is the Cooper Kupp hamstring injury? Fantasy football breakout season coming for Garrett Wilson? Plus, how to handle players falling in fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for July 29th, 2023.

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Evaluating falling players in drafts 02:42

  • The hosts discuss how to approach drafting players who are falling in average draft position (ADP).
  • They emphasize the importance of sticking to your own evaluation and not blindly following ADP.
  • It is suggested to consider the makeup of your team and whether adding a falling player disrupts your overall strategy.

“If I don’t believe in that player and then ADP tells me I’m supposed to, that’s one way I wouldn’t just take the player because they’re falling.”

Different approaches in different draft formats 04:14

  • The hosts discuss how their approach to falling players differs depending on the draft format.
  • In underdog drafts, they mention having a specific number in mind to take a falling player, usually around 20 spots behind ADP.
  • In redraft or their home league, they prioritize players they believe in rather than focusing solely on ADP.

“On underdog drafts for me, there is a number. It’s like if there’s about 20 spots behind ADP, I’m going to take them almost no matter what.”

Balancing process and emotion in drafting 05:50

  • The hosts discuss the internal struggle of balancing their drafting process with the temptation to select a falling player.
  • They mention the emotional aspect of feeling pressure to make a certain pick to appease others or to avoid regret.
  • It is emphasized that players in the NFL do not perform based on their ADP, so sticking to your evaluation is crucial.

“If I draft someone I knew I shouldn’t have because they all of a sudden became a value… I never forgive myself for drafting that player.”

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“None of the players in the NFL perform based on their average draft position in fantasy football.”

Relying on preseason and reality 08:07

  • The hosts highlight the importance of paying attention to preseason and camp performances to assess the potential of falling players.
  • They mention the example of DJ Chark, whom they believe is a talented player despite his average draft position.
  • The hosts stress the need to stay informed and adjust evaluations based on real-time information.

“I’m going to pay attention to preseason. I’m going to pay attention to camp and reality.”

“We get these average draft positions going in February, March, April, like they kind of persist for a really long time.”

ADP and the Importance of Being Aggressive 08:58

  • ADP establishes a draft order for players based on previous rankings, but it may not always reflect the newest information.
  • Drafters often feel pressured to follow the ADP list and may miss out on value.
  • As the actual draft draws closer, be willing to be more aggressive and consider recent changes in players’ outlooks that may not yet be reflected in ADP.
  • Jason used the example of drafting JSN three months ago, only to see him fall behind Tyler Lockett in current drafts.

“If you drafted JSN and around behind ADP three months ago, you’re like, Oh man, I took the value I wanted…So yeah, it’s an interesting discussion as a whole because I think that the overarching thing is there’s a lot of pressure when you’re in those drafts because every time you click below, like if you’re on a platform, ESPN, Yahoo! Whatever, sleeper, and you see that list and you take a player three or four below, like you feel like he does something wrong.” 09:39

Feeling Pressure in Fantasy Drafts 10:05

  • Everyone, including fantasy experts, feels the pressure to draft players that are at the top of ADP.
  • Other drafters may also feel this pressure, which can be an advantage for those who are willing to go against the grain.
  • However, the pressure to conform can be challenging, especially when there are long waits between picks.

“Our job is to talk about fantasy football. And I still feel the pressure of an online draft from the guy who’s at the top of the ADP. I mean, it’s the best guy left, right? Which has to be. You can take advantage of that in the fact that the other people in your league are going to feel a lot of pressure to take those top guys. You got to fight against it. But it’s hard because you also pick and then you wait maybe 15 picks before you pick again.” 10:24

News and Injuries Update 10:53

  • Zach Charbonnet, the Seattle running back, returned to practice after an indefinite injury.
  • Pete Carroll’s use of the word “indefinite” caused some concern, but it only means the length of injury is unknown.
  • Elijah Mitchell, the 49ers running back, missed practice due to another injury.

“We have a follow-up quote from Pete Carroll on Zach Sharper. And he said, ‘so now we know what indefinitely is.’ He said that. What’s freaking Pete Carroll? Oh, he’s with us. Gosh darn it. He’s, he’s a clever. He’s a sneaky snook.” 12:25

Uncertainty in Broncos Running Back Situation 13:31

  • Broncos head coach Sean Peyton stated that Javante Williams will play in the preseason.
  • While this is great news for Williams, his role and workload are still uncertain.
  • It remains unclear if Williams will become a workhorse or if he will be sharing the backfield with other players like Samaje Perine.

“So, um, Javante, I don’t think is going to be, like, I think so much if he runs good. Yeah. So, uh, in that regard, like Javante, we have, you know, we were waiting last year to have that big opportunity. Um, only got to see him for what, three and a half games. It was just a few. And, uh, I’m excited to see what both of those guys can do in the backfield. It’s really great news for Javante to get out on the field, get this worked through. And maybe he’s a second half league winner.” 14:41

Garrett Wilson‘s Potential as a Number One Wide Receiver 17:07

  • Andy believes that with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, Garrett Wilson has the ability to finish as the number one overall wide receiver if he can score 12 or 13 touchdowns.
  • Wilson showed promise during his rookie year, scoring 6.7 fantasy points per game with Zach Wilson and 14.2 fantasy points per game without him.
  • Wilson, at 23 years old, is at the prime age for a breakout season.
  • He has every opportunity in this explosive and athletic offense.
  • While his draft price is high, there is potential for higher ceiling than where he is being drafted.

“The ceiling could be higher than where he’s being drafted.” 17:56

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Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s Consistency and Potential 19:24

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered a safe pick in half PPR scoring formats.
  • He was the wide receiver eight last year with 106 receptions and six touchdowns.
  • St. Brown lacks downfield production but excels as a possession receiver.
  • He is as safe as it gets in terms of consistent production for your fantasy roster.

“He is a true chain mover and a stable piece to your fantasy football team.” 23:42

Comparing Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s Ceiling 22:33

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected to finish higher than Garrett Wilson, but Wilson has a higher upside and is a better pick for those seeking a potential breakout.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s reliability makes him a solid choice for half PPR and standard leagues.

“The conversation is definitely which one has the higher ceiling.” 22:39

CeeDee Lamb’s Breakout Season and Trust in the Offense 24:28

  • CD Lamb had a breakout season last year, finishing as the wide receiver six overall.
  • He excelled in slot receiving yards and proved himself as a reliable target.
  • Despite potential turnovers from Dak Prescott, the fantasy football community trusts Lamb to continue his success.

“The breakout finally happened last year. Wide receiver six overall.” 24:40

CeeDee Lamb opportunity and variables 27:29

  • CDLAM has the same talent as last year, with the same quarterback, but the opportunity is what’s scary.
  • Last year, Michael Gallup was not fully healthy and Amari Cooper departed, creating more targets for CDLAM.
  • The offensive coordinator shift may slow down the pace of play and decrease total offensive snaps.
  • The addition of Brandon Cooks adds more competition for targets.

“The opportunity is what’s scary because last year you had Michael Gallup who wasn’t fully, you know, he wasn’t all the way back to full health. And you had the departure of Amari Cooper.”

Slower offense and potential impact 29:22

  • The Dallas Cowboys‘ offense is expected to slow down in pace of play to protect their defense.
  • Total offensive snaps may decrease as they shift to playing a bit more old school football.
  • The addition of Brandon Cooks adds more competition for targets.

“They were number one in turnovers forced last year. They can win a lot of ball games that way. And so, you know, is this a situation where you’re going to see maybe less production in the second half of games if they have a lead that they’ve gotten in the first?”

Running back room concerns 30:16

“This is a smaller running back room. This is not the type… like Zeke where like we can give him the ball on the ground 20 plus times a game and we know that he’s not going to wear down. Like can they actually do that with anybody on this team?”

Davante Adams being drafted as WR8 31:17

  • Devonte Adams is being drafted as the wide receiver eight.
  • The hosts believe this is a great opportunity to draft a top wide receiver in the second round, as Adams has a chance to be in the top three.
  • Adams has been consistent and has finished in the top three in fantasy for three of the past four years.

“I think this is a crazy opportunity to go running back in the first round and maybe draft the best wide receiver in the second round.”

Davante Adams’ Performance and Concerns 33:28

  • Devonte Adams had the highest yards per catch of his career in 2024.
  • He was also a touchdown machine, scoring a high number of touchdowns.
  • There are concerns about how well he will mesh with Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • The catch percentage dropped last year due to deep targets.
  • Closer targets and high number of targets could make up for any A-dot issues.

“His career catch percentage is 66%. From the time he became an elite player with Aaron Rodgers, his catch percentage was 68%. Last year, he had 180 targets in that offense, which look, you’re not going to have as high a catch percentage when you’re averaged up the target is deep. He caught 100 passes out of 180. That was like 56%.” 34:09

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Concerns about Jimmy Garoppolo and Touchdowns 35:09

  • One concern is the number of touchdowns Devonte Adams will have.
  • While he had 14 touchdowns last year, there are doubts about the red zone work with Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • Derek Carr might be trusted more in the red zone.

“The one concern I have is touchdowns. It, you know, it’s like 14 last year. Exactly. He had, he had, you know, 14 touchdowns. And I, I do think that that is different when you get in the red zone, the red zone work. I would trust Eric Carr more than I would trust Jimmy Garoppolo, but double digits, six of seven years. Devonte Adams is fantastic. Is awesome.” 35:01

Value and Expectations for Davante Adams 35:42

  • Devonte Adams is a valuable player with talent and opportunity.
  • He is not as expensive as a first round pick.
  • There may be value in drafting him but finishing top five may be unlikely due to the expected decline in double digit touchdowns.

“So I think there is value here, but I would be surprised if he finishes inside the top five just because I don’t expect him to keep the double digit touchdown streak going.” 35:53

Comparing Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr 36:10

  • There is speculation about how well Jimmy Garoppolo will perform compared to Derek Carr.
  • The Raiders are betting on Garoppolo being a good starting quarterback.
  • It remains to be seen if Garoppolo can carry the offense.

“Can he do it? I don’t know. Yeah. We’re going to find out. I think I’m on the side of yes. Sure. And I understand doubting Jimmy G. No question.” 36:41

Consistency and Confidence in AJ Brown 36:46

  • AJ Brown is an elite wide receiver with massive volume and physical dominance.
  • He has shown consistency in his performance.
  • There are confidence and trust in drafting AJ Brown as a top 10 wide receiver.

“This is a guy who is first two years in the league was a top 15 wide receiver for fantasy while averaging fewer than 100 targets. And now he’s in a position where he’s getting 140 plus targets. He’s just too good. He’s in his prime. He’s got a great quarterback.” 38:10

Risks for AJ Brown 38:30

  • The main risk for AJ Brown is injuries.
  • Other variables such as Dallas Goddard or Devonta Smith could impact his production.

“So, you know, could he could he lose a couple of those? I think, yeah, that could happen Goddard or Devonza Smith variables.” 38:35

First Month Schedule for AJ Brown 39:57

  • The schedule for AJ Brown in the first four games includes favorable matchups.
  • It is a good opportunity for him to excel.

“And then just, just to highlight the, to compare to Devonte Adams, who will be playing at Denver, at Buffalo, Pittsburgh, at the Chargers. So Devonte Adams could be a, he could be a by low by week three.” 40:03

Confidence and Trust in Stef Diggs 40:44

  • Stef Diggs is in the category of elite quarterback combined with elite production.
  • He has shown consistent high-level performance with the Bills.
  • There is no reason to pass on him in fantasy drafts.

“You just kind of don’t pass on Diggs because of his tweets. Well, okay. Like maybe there’s more answers to this at this mad lib. Don’t pass on Stefan Diggs because he keeps doing it.” 41:11

Cooper Kupp‘s Fantasy Outlook 47:27

  • Cooper Kupp has a hamstring injury and is currently day-to-day. The severity and timeline of the injury are unclear.
  • Historically, hamstring injuries in training camp can be concerning and can sideline players for an extended period of time.

“I mean, I don’t know what Michael LaFleur is doing here. Just say indefinite.”

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  • Despite the injury, Kupp’s upside is still incredibly high, with the potential to finish as the overall number one player.
  • Last season, Kupp was dominant, finishing as the number one wide receiver in points per game before getting injured.
  • Before his injury, he was on pace for an exceptional stat line with 153 receptions, 1700 yards, and 12.8 touchdowns.

“The pace he was on last year before he got injured was just the best of the best.”

  • Drafting Kupp comes with a high level of risk due to the hamstring injury, especially when compared to other options like Austin Ekeler or Travis Kelce.
  • Evaluating the risk, some fantasy managers might prioritize other players over Kupp in their drafts.

“Why take the risk when you can get Ekeler or Kelce?”

Key Wide Receivers Rankings 45:37

  • The top four wide receivers in fantasy football, based on the rankings, are Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill.
  • These wide receivers have consistently been elite performers and offer a combination of high targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

“It’s hard to find complaints with the top four wide receivers.”

  • Stefon Diggs is expected to have another strong season, especially as the clear number one option on the Buffalo Bills.
  • Diggs expressed some dissatisfaction with his targets in the previous season but remains a superstar wide receiver with significant potential.

Stefon Diggs was out indefinitely, but he has the dream scenario for any wide receiver in football.”

  • Tyreek Hill is known for his exceptional speed and separation from defenders. He has been a top performer in fantasy and is a valuable asset to any team.
  • Hill’s ability to consistently produce high yardage, receptions, and touchdowns make him a desirable option.

Tyreek Hill is so far away from people in these plays that it doesn’t seem fair.”

  • Cooper Kupp‘s injury places some uncertainty on his fantasy outlook, but he has shown his potential to be the number one wide receiver when healthy.
  • Kupp’s performance last season before his injury was outstanding, making him a highly desirable pick if he is able to recover well.

“Kupp had not lost the top wide receiver spot despite the Rams’ struggles on the field.”

Example quote

“The pace he was on last year before he got injured was just the best of the best.”

Austin Ekeler vs. Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs 49:47

  • Echler just a few spots lower than you guys. B zone. I think I still take Cooper Cup digs.

“Based on rankings… But if you have pushed game… it’s scary.”

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Jamar Chase and Mike’s Rankings 50:12

  • Also known as Mike’s number one overall wide receiver right now.
  • Jason has Jamar Chase at number two.
  • Mike has him at number three.

“I was unaware that he was your number one… I love it.”

Jamar Chase’s Performance 50:30

  • Jamar Chase had 87 catches in just 12 appearances last year.
  • His target share jumped from 24% to 29%.
  • Yards per catch dipped from 18 to 12.

“The reason I have him number one… I mean the fact that he jumped from… He was already being used more.”

Ja’Marr Chase‘s Potential 51:36

  • 12 yards per catch seems too low for Jamar Chase.
  • He could be in the 13 to 14 range, or even as high as 15.
  • His pace last year was 190 targets.

“I think 12 is too low… He could put up 12 to 18… That’s in Jamar Chase’s range of outcomes.”

Ja’Marr Chase‘s Best Season 52:42

  • “I do not believe at all that we have seen Jamar Chase’s best season… there’s no way… He’s 23 years old.”

Ja’Marr Chase vs. T Higgins 53:05

  • Jamar Chase has significantly more involvement in the offense compared to T Higgins.
  • He had almost 30% of red zone targets and 26 despite being injured.

“Let me share something… the massive gap between Jamar Chase and T Higgins in terms of involvement… Yeah, that’s in Jamar Chase’s range of outcomes.”

Ja’Marr Chase‘s Touchdown Potential 53:44

  • Jamar Chase could put up 18 touchdowns based on his red zone targets.
  • He had 9 touchdowns last year.

“He could put up 18 touchdowns… he has positive touchdown regression.”

Concerns about Joe Burrow‘s Calf Strain 54:24

  • Joe Burrow will be shut down until the season starts due to a calf strain.
  • There is a chance of reaggravation or tweaking the calf.

“Yeah, rearvision and tweak one would be bad… It can be a slight concern.”

Justin Jefferson‘s Consistency and Upside 55:47

  • Justin Jefferson has been consistently productive in his first two seasons.
  • He has the potential for improvement and positive touchdown regression.

“He’s good at catching the ball… There’s nothing to stop Justin Jefferson this year.”

Justin Jefferson‘s Opportunity 56:36

  • Adam Thielen is vacating the second most routes in the NFL, leaving opportunities for Justin Jefferson.
  • He has the most targets through any players’ first three seasons in the NFL.

“He has the most targets… there’s just nothing to stop Justin Jefferson this year.”

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KG says:

Man, the beginning of this episode hit hard. I did NOT want CEH in his second year. But he fell to me like a round late. I wanted nothing to do with the guy. BUT then…he fell. And he fell “too far”. So had to take him. Had to? No, no I didn’t. Regretted it all season.

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