Top 10 TE Rankings + Hit Rates, Danger Zone

Summary:

Listener League and Entry Process 01:01

• The Fantasy Footballers discussed the selection process for their listener league, emphasizing the difficulty in choosing participants from numerous entries.
• They will finalize decisions this week and inform the chosen listeners soon.
• There was humorous banter about a team member known for taking a long time in the restroom, jokingly worsened by listener league references.

“The Falcon is known for taking a falcon… if you know what I mean, that’s on the toilet.”

UDK for Life Giveaway and Draft Kit Announcement 03:08

• The Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK) for Life Giveaway is mentioned. Purchasing a UDK before Friday’s live stream enters buyers into a lottery for a signed Justin Jefferson jersey.
• The UDK is emphasized as a comprehensive tool for fantasy draft preparation, offering cheat sheets and strategies to outperform league rivals.
• The hosts advocate for preparing well for draft day as it sets the foundation for a championship run.

“You don’t win your league at the draft, but you can certainly win the draft day and make your league mates feel stupid.”

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Waiver Wire Discussion and Roster Stash Recommendations 04:25

• The hosts provide guidance on players to look for on the waiver wire, particularly those valuable for dynasty leagues.
• Guidance is provided on picking undrafted players with potential to contribute.
• Injuries and opportunities affecting depth charts are discussed, such as Tyrone Tracy‘s injury and its impact on the Giants’ depth chart.

“Eric Gray would be the number one pickup now in replacement of Tracy.”

Breakout Players and Six-Round Picks 06:00

• Discussion on how late-round picks might emerge during the season.
• Jordan Whittington gets highlighted for his preseason performance and positive team comments.
• There’s a noted focus on exploring players like Andre Yosivas and Johnny Wilson with potential in current team setups.

“He’s a grown man, says Sean McVay.”

Tight End Prospects and Team Dynamics 09:28

• Colby Parkinson is mentioned in the context of the Rams’ tight end situation, raising doubts about his potential breakout.
• The Rams’ tight end room is complicated with Parkinson, highlighting that the team values him as a capable starter in various roles, but his reception history makes it uncertain if his role will expand.

“Colby Parkinson signed a pretty lucrative deal, but I would say… if he accumulates 25 receptions, that would be more understandable.”

Tight End Waiver Considerations 10:50

• Davis Allen was mentioned as a potential player with hopeful upside, but there are doubts about whether he will take on a significant role.
• Parkinson could have a minimal role, possibly being streamable for a week if he catches a couple of touchdowns.
• Jared Wy, a rookie tight end behind Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, is highlighted as a name to remember due to his athleticism and potential. Wy is currently getting reps with the starters at camp.

“Davis Allen for the hopeful upside…though I think that the upside of Parkinson doesn’t really exist.”

Injury Concerns and Their Impact on Draft Strategy 13:03

• Jir Gibbs is dealing with a hamstring injury, raising his risk factor going into drafts. Historically, hamstring injuries in camp tend to recur during the season.
• Some Gibbs dynasty owners have started panic trades, trying to acquire David Montgomery as an insurance policy. The idea is to have Montgomery as a viable handcuff option.
• Discussions about whether to make unequal trades for backup insurance reflect on the value of having a guaranteed starting running back if a key player like Gibbs is out.

“Gibbs Dynasty managers are sending through panic trades…trying to acquire Montgomery.”

Coach Perspectives and Player Opportunities 16:12

• Miami Dolphins coach made comments about his willingness to use a rotation of running backs, creating more interest in value picks like Raheem Mostert.
• The Lions’ backfield highlights discussed how an injury to either Montgomery or Gibbs could lead to a workhorse role for the healthy player.
• Players like Raheem Mostert could step into significant roles due to the presence of injury-prone teammates and the coaching staff’s approach to player utilization.

“Just got even more juiced up for Mostert at his value, and that’s not to be off of Achane.”

Weight Changes and Preseason Buzz 18:49

• Reports emerged about Chase Claypool being placed on IR, ending his season.
• The Bears’ wide receiver Keenan Allen’s weight was noted, suggesting he appears to be heavier than last year. His current play performance could be affected.

“Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen appears to be 230 lbs.”

Fantasy Football Tight End Draft Strategy 20:29

• There is growing concern about Keenan Allen‘s weight potentially impacting his performance. A report indicated that Allen weighed significantly more than expected, which could be problematic if he’s playing overweight.
• USAA Insurance is highlighted during the brief news segment, encouraging listeners to visit their website for more information.
• Historically, drafting tight ends in fantasy football shows varying success rates based on their average draft positions. The tight ends drafted between the first and third positions have a reasonable hit rate of 60% for finishing in the top five.
• Middle-tier tight ends (drafted 4-6) have a decreased hit rate of 37%, meaning less reliability in achieving top-five status.
• Alarmingly, tight ends drafted 7-12 have only broken into the top five 3% of the time over the last five years, indicating a significant risk with these draft picks.

“If you go to like the middle of the draft, the four to six that has dropped down to a 37%.”

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• The strategy suggests that if you don’t land one of the elite tight ends, waiting until the later rounds might be preferable. This approach means punting the tight end position but also sacrificing upside.

“You’re also punting upside… your odds are almost nothing.”

Player Profile: David Njoku 24:43

• David Njoku‘s performance in the previous season is analyzed, demonstrating the inconsistency often seen with specific tight end picks. It’s noted that Njoku’s fantasy finish was tight end six, despite having games where he was highly productive.
• The evaluation raises questions about Njoku’s future performance with DeShaun Watson, pointing out his reliance on a specific quarterback setup last season.
• Njoku’s current cost is perhaps more than what his expected production might yield, especially considering the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson‘s role and performance.

“The question with David Njoku is was the late season minimalistic breakout enough to make him the clear number two target in the offense.”

• When considering drafting Njoku, there’s a hesitation due to conflicting factors such as the potential quarterback situation and Watson’s track record.

“It just came through this morning, cleared for contact: Deshaun Watson.”

• Kevin Stefanski’s role as a coach is highlighted for managing injuries well last season, but there is uncertainty if he can help Watson reach previous performance levels, thus impacting Njoku’s potential fantasy value this year.

“I thought that Kevin Stefanski and this team did the most impressive job with all of the injuries last year of any team.”

• A strategic recommendation is to focus on loading up on other positions if a top-tier tight end isn’t available, prioritizing team balance rather than chasing a mid-tier tight end pick.

“If I’m not having a stud tight end, I want the rest of my roster to be worth it.”

Fantasy Tight End Rankings and Insights 30:22

• The discussion highlights a period during which David Njoku was the number one fantasy tight end from weeks seven through 17, showcasing his potential to secure a win on any given week. This makes him more attractive than other tight ends like Pat Freiermuth or Dalton Schultz, who don’t seem to offer the same weekly winning potential.
• Despite this, some are hesitant to take Njoku as their choice in this player range due to the emergence of another strong contender, Jake “Turd” Ferguson, who projects to be the number two target in the Dallas Cowboys passing offense.
• Ferguson, although similar in average draft position to Njoku, led all tight ends in Red Zone targets, although it didn’t translate into as much fantasy success as hoped. The expectation is that Ferguson can improve and might offer better upside, especially considering Dak Prescott‘s historical use of tight ends.
• The primary reason for preferring Ferguson over Njoku is the belief that Ferguson may lead in touchdowns due to his role on the team, despite Njoku’s better athletic profile.

“David Njoku had a stretch where he was the number one tight end in fantasy from weeks seven through 17.”

Jake Ferguson‘s Fantasy Potential 31:29

• Jake Ferguson is projected as the second-most important target in the Cowboys’ passing game. While his points per game were modestly ranked at tight end eight, his Red Zone targeting elevates his prospects.
• Ferguson’s profile suggests he will be more touchdown-dependent, yet still a valuable Red Zone target within a high-powered offense, despite having a lesser athletic profile compared to Njoku.
• Both Ferguson and Njoku fall into a category of tight ends that are seen as streaming options; they hold potential based on matchups rather than consistent weekly performance.

“Ferguson is the number two target for the Cowboys’ passing offense.”

Kyle Pitts: A Potential Fantasy Game-Changer 37:00

• Kyle Pitts is considered a high-risk, high-reward pick in fantasy football. Despite his potential, the emotional letdown of the past seasons due to injuries and poor quarterback play has been significant.
• As one of the best tight end prospects, Pitts offers huge upside and could potentially be a remarkable value if drafted beyond his average draft position, poised to be a league-winning player when healthy and in the right system.
• The challenges with Pitts come from skepticism about the Falcons’ quarterback and offensive system changes. Still, his unmatched athleticism makes him a tempting option for managers willing to embrace risk for high returns.

“Kyle Pitts could be a League winner for where he’s going.”

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Debating Draft Strategies for Tight Ends 39:58

• There is a discussion regarding the potential of Kyle Pitts in fantasy drafts, with an emphasis on his possible role as the number two target after Drake London.
• Some analysts suggest taking a chance on Pitts if he falls to the eighth round due to his high upside, while others are currently passing on him in the fifth round due to his draft cost.
• A correction is made about the draft order, stating Pitts should not be drafted before George Kittle, which was a point of contention.

“If Pitts were to slide in a draft and he’s fallen to the eighth round, I will take a shot because I see the path for high upside.”

Comparing George Kittle and Evan Ingram 42:13

• George Kittle and Evan Ingram are being compared, with a focus on Kittle’s inconsistency and high ceiling juxtaposed with Ingram’s steady performance and high volume.
• Kittle was the top-scoring tight end in three different weeks last year, but his play depends heavily on game plans—sometimes resulting in significantly low fantasy points.
• Evan Ingram finished as the tight end two last year, benefiting from a situation where they lost key receivers like Calvin Ridley and didn’t know what they had in other players.
• Some panelists prefer Kittle for his greater weekly upside, while others favor the consistency of Evan Ingram, especially in PPR formats.

“Evan Ingram was the tight end two last year… they lose Calvin Ridley, they don’t know what they have in Brian Thomas yet.”

Evaluating Star Tight Ends: Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride 47:50

• Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride are highlighted for their potential in upcoming drafts.
• Analysts note that Dalton Kincaid‘s draft position is acceptable if he ends up being the primary target for Josh Allen, presenting a major payoff for drafters.
• Trey McBride‘s end-of-season performance has gained attention. Despite having no target competition previously, he now has to contend with new offensive talents.
• There is a sense of cautious optimism for McBride, with some expecting significant growth in his numbers and an aggressive projection ranking.

“An impressive end to the season for Trey McBride… McBride’s got his role in this offense.”

Evaluating Tight End Performance and Rankings 49:53

• The speaker discusses a tight end who has grown into the role expected when drafted. This player had an impressive performance last year, ranking second among tight ends in yards per route run and receiving a substantial target share.
• The player’s involvement in an evolving offensive strategy suggests improved scoring and red zone opportunities.

“He is a well-rounded pass catcher, not just catching and falling down, but making aggressive catches and trying for more yards after contact.”

• From Weeks 10 onward, during the Kyler Murray period last season, the player was on a remarkable pace to achieve 112 receptions over a 17-game season.

Mark Andrews‘ Consistency and Uncertainty 51:11

• Mark Andrews ranks third in tight end discussions, with mixed views on his current ranking due to uncertainties about Baltimore’s offensive strategy.
• Despite Andrews dealing with injuries, his consistency in performance remains admirable. He has posted double-digit points per game since his breakout in his second year.

“Andrews always seems locked in unless injury sidelines him. He’s a go-to player around the end zone.”

Examining Sam LaPorta‘s Potential 52:01

• Sam LaPorta‘s explosive rookie year included setting records for receptions and routes among rookie tight ends which led to him finishing second in current rankings.
• The primary concern is potential touchdown regression, but the lack of other key offensive pieces suggests LaPorta’s role remains crucial.

“Reports from camp say losing Josh Reynolds impacts their receiving game, making LaPorta even more critical for their offense.”

• Speakers express concern over historical data showing players with similar touchdown-to-yard ratios seeing a regression.

“He had 10 touchdowns on 889 yards, and all tight ends with similar stats tend to regress in touchdowns the following year.”

Understanding Travis Kelce‘s Dominance 56:46

• Travis Kelce remains atop tight end rankings, displaying exceptional consistency and performance over the years.
• While there’s acknowledgment of Kelce’s reduced dominance last year, he still holds significant promise due to expected positive regression in the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive touchdowns.

“Even if Kelce isn’t as good as last year, he is still outstanding, and positive regression is likely.”

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• The strategy discussed suggests picking receivers and running backs in earlier rounds, leaving room to focus on tight ends like Kelce in slightly later rounds when their value is more apparent.

Tight End Draft Strategy and Expectations 59:29

• The discussion highlights the importance of not forcing the draft action, particularly when high-security options are available for multiple players.
• If prominent tight ends like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta weren’t on the scene, there would be more demand for the remaining players, possibly influencing their draft positions.
• Travis Kelce‘s performance has been examined, showing a drop in points per game from over 15 in 2022 to 11.5, although he remains tied for the top spot.

“If those three to five guys didn’t exist, I don’t think Kelsey and LaPorta are going in the third round.”

Importance of Early Season Strategy in Tight End Selection 01:00:20

• The strategy of utilizing matchups is emphasized, particularly when drafting tight ends for a fast start, such as Sam LaPorta, due to Detroit Lions‘ favorable initial matches.
• Tight ends, like Greg Dulcich of the Denver Broncos and other late-round options, could be valuable due to favorable schedules or team dynamics unfavorable to wide receiver roles.
• Brock Bowers is mentioned as a potentially exceptional draft pick due to his ability to line up as a wide receiver, despite being a seventh-rounder or later option.

“Sam LaPorta and maybe Evan Ingram, if you want to throw that out there, are exceptions.”

Considerations of Rookie Tight Ends and Performance Comparisons 01:02:40

• The historical performance of rookie tight ends is generally not impressive, which is an argument against picking them for immediate impact.
• The consideration of quarterback play affecting tight end performance is highlighted, using Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as examples of quarterbacks that might positively influence a tight end’s performance.

“The greatest tight ends aren’t great their rookie year, with the exception of Sam LaPorta.”

Miscellaneous Tight End Draft Talk and Events 01:03:31

• Taysom Hill is mentioned as a wildcard option due to his popularity and performance potential, jokingly referred to as “awful” yet someone to keep on the radar.
• Promotional insights into opportunities to engage with The Fantasy Footballers, including a live stream event and the chance to attend a show in Los Angeles, are briefly discussed.

“Taysom Hill needs to be on people’s radar; it’s awful, I hate it.”