Shocking Stats + Fantasy Valentines

Fantasy Football talk for Feb 18, 2025. Shocking stats and fantasy draft implications! Will the Dolphins offense rebound this year? Can James Cook repeat his 2024 success? Plus, find out which players Andy, Mike, and Jason have early crushes on for the 2025 fantasy football season! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.

Get the lowest price on the 2025 UDK at UltimateDraftKit.com – Order before March 1st for an entry to win a Listener League Spot! 

Connect with the show:

• Subscribe on YouTube
• Visit us on the Web
• Support the Show
• Follow on X
• Follow on Instagram
• Join our Discord

 

Summary:

Valentine’s Day Plans and Kentucky Facts 00:50

“This is the first time in my life I will be in Kentucky.”

• The hosts discuss their Valentine’s Day plans, with one host excited about flying to Kentucky for the first time, signaling a unique experience.
• It’s noted that Kentucky is known as the bourbon capital of the world, and the host plans to enjoy some bourbon tours while there with his partner.
• They humorously engage in a conversation about Kentucky’s location and notable facts, exposing their geographic misconceptions about the placement of states in the U.S.
• A joke is made about confusion between Kentucky and Kansas, highlighting a common misunderstanding that West Coast individuals might have regarding eastern states.

Brief Anecdotes and Update on Personal Lives 03:22

“We have shocking stats on the show today.”

• As they transition from personal discussions to the show content, the hosts reflect on their own Valentine’s Day traditions, admitting to not having elaborate plans.
• One of the hosts mentions that their household has an agreement not to go overboard for Valentine’s Day, framing this casual approach humorously to mitigate any perceived guilt.
• They introduce a segment about fantasy football discussions, tying it back to the theme of Valentine’s Day by asking about “early fantasy football crushes” for the upcoming season.
• The preparation for the show shifts focus to interesting statistical insights gathered from the current fantasy football season, indicating an exciting transition in the podcast’s theme.

Running Back Draft Class Evaluation 10:15

“This is a much better running back draft class.”

• The current year’s rookie running back class is deemed significantly superior compared to the previous year’s top running back, particularly in scoring and overall scouting evaluations.
• There is a consensus that all four rookie running backs outshine last year’s top selections, including Brooks and Benson.
• The discussion indicates a notable shift in perspective, emphasizing the potential of this year’s draft class.

Concerns Over the Wide Receiver Class 10:38

“I’m not excited yet.”

Get the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Preorder the 2026 UDK

• There is skepticism regarding the current wide receiver draft class, with particular mention of DJ Moore‘s unexciting performance in the previous season.
• DJ Moore has struggled to capture the excitement of fans, partly due to a disappointing year exacerbated by quarterback instability.
• The speaker expresses a mix of excitement and fear about Jameson Williams, noting his undeniable talent when the ball is in his hands.

Jameson Williams‘s Potential and Future 11:21

“Jameson Williams is a player that, when the ball is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has next-level NFL talent.”

• Despite his talent, Jameson Williams has faced consistency and health challenges, and his potential has been hindered by being underutilized within a strong team structure.
• Statistically, he recorded over 1,000 receiving yards on 58 receptions, projecting a hopeful increase in performance in the future.
• His potential to expand his role in fantasy football is emphasized, with speculation he could enhance his stats from 58 receptions and 1,000 yards to 75 receptions and 1,400 yards, potentially scoring 10 touchdowns in a season.

Implications of Coaching Changes in the NFL 14:03

“Kellen Moore… goes to the Chargers and immediately gets picked up by Philadelphia.”

• Kellen Moore‘s coaching career has been a rollercoaster, transitioning from the Dallas Cowboys to the Chargers and later joining the Philadelphia Eagles.
• His trajectory highlights a skilled offensive mind, successfully leading various franchises and adapting to different teams consistently.
• There are discussions about the unusual circumstance of Brandon Staley now taking over the defense at New Orleans after coaching with Moore, raising questions about the turnover of roles in quick succession.

Travis Kelce Future with the Chiefs 17:15

“Travis Kelsey says he’s going to take some time to decide whether he’ll return to the Chiefs.”

• Travis Kelsey is contemplating his future following a disappointing Super Bowl loss, indicating that the emotional aftermath might be influencing his decision.
• Despite expressing a need for better leadership during the recent season, the prevailing thought is that he doesn’t want his final game to reflect negatively on his career.
• There is speculation regarding his retirement, considering both his declining performance and the challenging odds of returning to the Super Bowl.

The Future of NFL Players Off the Field 19:56

“Most of these guys have absolutely no idea that football has been their life, and now football’s gone.”

• The transition away from professional football can be jarring for players, who often struggle with identity and purpose after their careers end. Travis Kelsey is noted to have future opportunities lined up, suggesting that not all players will face the same challenges in this shift.

Legal Troubles Affecting Players 20:14

“Jordan Addison filed for a continuation of his DUI case, pretrial hearing March 12th.”

• Jordan Addison‘s ongoing DUI case is a significant concern, especially as he prepares for a pivotal year in his career. His situation highlights how off-the-field issues can overshadow a player’s potential and impact their professional development.

Roster Decisions for the Seahawks 21:05

“The Seahawks are working through whether Lockett will be on the roster in 2025.”

• Tyler Lockett‘s future with the Seahawks is uncertain. At 33 years old, his high cap hit ($30.9 million) makes it a challenging decision for the team, and they may need to restructure his contract to retain him. There seems to be an evaluation process underway to determine what is best for both the player and organization.

Hype Surrounding Running Backs 21:44

“It’s that time of the year… breaking down what coaches are saying about their players.”

• As the football season progresses, there’s a surge of excitement around player evaluations, particularly in the running back position like Ken Walker. The podcast hosts express enthusiasm for the “hype machine” that surrounds players at this time of year as they share optimism from coaches.

Insights on Offensive Strategies in Miami 23:56

“Miami’s Vice: The Dolphins, 31st in the NFL with 45 total plays of 20-plus yards.”

Get the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Preorder the 2026 UDK

• The Dolphins’ offensive production has noticeably declined, a drastic 31 fewer explosive plays compared to the previous year. With star players like Tyreek Hill struggling to convert deep passes, the Dolphins’ offense is at a crossroads: they must decide between continuing a conservative approach or innovating to regain their explosiveness.

Concerns About Tua’s Progression 26:32

“There is a difference between what works and what we want as fantasy players.”

• The podcast delves into Tua Tagovailoa‘s quick release style of play, which functions well against weaker teams but raises concerns about long-term effectiveness and stability. The discussion hints at the challenges this poses for fantasy players expecting high-scoring games from the offense, compared to the pragmatic approach seemingly favored by the team’s strategy.

Jaylen Waddle‘s Value as WR30 29:40

“The risk is being baked into the ADP, which for me means that I’ll take some shots on that.”

• Jalen Waddle is currently being drafted as the 30th wide receiver, reflecting a risk that some fantasy players might find appealing.
• The draft position (ADP) suggests that his potential upside may outweigh the risk of injury or inconsistent performance, making him an interesting option for risk-tolerant players.

Devon Achane‘s Potential Role 29:44

“Could Devon A-chan in this offense be the number one overall running back? I doubt it.”

• There is some speculation around whether Devon A-chan can emerge as the top running back, although skepticism exists about this possibility.
• The mention of Austin Ekeler‘s prior performance raises doubts about whether A-chan can replicate similar success in this offense, especially considering the challenges that come with a new setup.

Importance of Offensive Line Improvement 30:14

“If they want to fix their offense, they have to fix their offensive line.”

• A consensus has emerged that enhancing the offensive line is critical for revitalizing the team’s overall offensive performance.
• Without improvements in this area, protecting the quarterback and facilitating the run game will remain significant challenges for the offense.

James Cook‘s 2024 Performance Metrics 30:32

“James Cook had 43% of his fantasy points come via touchdown.”

• James Cook‘s performance in 2024 saw a notable reliance on touchdowns, which accounted for nearly half of his total fantasy points.
• Despite Cook’s strong showing, there is concern regarding his efficiency as he experienced a decrease in opportunity snaps and yardage compared to the previous season.

Concerns About Touchdowns and Regression 32:32

“7.7% of his attempts were turned into a touchdown.”

• The high percentage of Cook’s attempts resulting in touchdowns raises red flags for potential regression in the upcoming season.
• Historical patterns indicate that maintaining such a high touchdown rate is unlikely, hence raising concerns about his ability to replicate last year’s production.

Comparison to Other Running Backs 34:57

“Aaron Jones is the best comp imaginable.”

• The speaker draws parallels between James Cook and Aaron Jones, highlighting that both players have found success in shared-back roles rather than as bell-cow backs.
• These comparisons suggest that while Cook can be a productive asset, he may not achieve the full workload needed to elevate him into the top tier of running backs.

The Green Bay Packers‘ Target Distribution 36:00

“The Packers were the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing a target share above 19%.”

Get the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Preorder the 2026 UDK

• The Packers’ target distribution has been notably balanced, with no player exceeding a 19% target share, indicating a lack of a standout receiver.
• This lack of clear targets raises questions about the team’s offensive strategy and the potential for players to step up as true number one receivers.

Wide Receiver Assessment 39:22

“If you look at that wide receiver… I just wish there was like a proven favorite, you know?”

• The speaker expresses affection for his kids, likening them to potential favorites but notes they often fall short as they are all “number twos.” This analogy transitions into a discussion on wide receivers, specifically evaluating Jaden Reed and the possibility of him becoming a primary target. It’s suggested that Jaden Reed is unlikely to emerge as a standout receiver, reinforcing the need for a stronger option on the roster.

Potential of Dontavian Wicks 39:45

“I think he’s the only one.”

• Dontavian Wicks emerges as a notable candidate capable of being the primary receiver. While acknowledging Wicks’ potential, the speaker highlights that his ability to catch remains a concern, as he has not demonstrated adequate catching skills during games, evidenced by a missed target ratio of 39 out of 74. This sets up the broader conversation about the quality and style of Green Bay’s wide receivers, which lean towards competent but not standout players.

Evaluation of the Green Bay Offense 40:04

“But we – like, I feel like I’ve seen enough of LeFleur and his offenses… that the Packers will still be a strong offense.”

• Despite concerns about depth at wide receiver, there is optimism for the Green Bay offense in the upcoming season. The speaker mentions that the team ranked well statistically in various offensive parameters last year, like scoring and yardage. Although they lack a clear number one receiver currently, there is belief that they can still perform effectively under the coaching of LeFleur and the abilities of quarterback Jordan Love.

The Need for a Star Receiver 41:06

“I do hope they add a number one guy.”

• The dialogue includes desires for the Packers to secure a star wide receiver, which would elevate Jordan Love’s prospects for success. The potential addition of an elite player like Devontae Adams or DK Metcalf is discussed, emphasizing how such a move could significantly enhance the offense. This reflects a collective eagerness for upgrades to the roster to boost competitive standing.

The Case for Baker Mayfield 44:30

“Baker Mayfield‘s eight finishes inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks.”

• Baker Mayfield is presented as a surprising candidate with eight top-five finishes in quarterback performances. The conversation moves to his history and future within the league, debating whether he can repeat such success. The speakers recognize inconsistencies but point out that despite a strong recent performance, it might not be sustainable. There’s speculation on whether he can achieve similar or better developments in touchdown statistics moving forward.

Analysis of Baker Mayfield’s Performance 48:20

“I like Baker. I think I have him much higher in dynasty startup rankings than most people do.”

• The speaker expresses a strong personal preference for Baker Mayfield, indicating that they rank him more favorably in dynasty startup leagues compared to the general consensus. This suggests a belief in Mayfield’s potential to score well in fantasy football based on his performance and durability over the last two seasons, where he played all games.

“He’s always fighting for their playoff spot at the end of the season.”

• It is noted that Mayfield consistently competes for playoff positions each year, showcasing his resilience and competitiveness. Even when faced with injuries, he continues to play, emphasizing his dedication to the team.

Comparing Quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray 49:23

“I look at Baker, who is a throw-in, backup in a trade, as my better quarterback.”

Get the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Preorder the 2026 UDK

• The discussion shifts to a comparison between Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, with the speaker considering Mayfield as a potentially superior choice for their dynasty team despite him being perceived as a backup. This reflects a confident belief in Mayfield’s ability to yield strong fantasy results.

“How many more top five seasons the rest of his career?”

• The conversation leads to the difficult question of how many more top-five seasons Mayfield can expect as a quarterback. The consensus is that while he is undoubtedly useful in fantasy leagues, predicting top-five finishes is a challenging prediction for him moving forward.

Bengals’ Playoff Dynamics and Offensive Statistics 52:16

“The Bengals were leading or tied on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024.”

• This statistic underscores the Bengals’ strong offensive performance despite their inability to convert to playoffs that season. The team ranked high in leading or tied during plays, yet still failed to qualify for the postseason, illustrating how close games can be deceptive regarding team success.

“Their defense was atrocious across the board in every category.”

• The conversation highlights the poor performance of the Bengals’ defense, which played a significant role in their struggles. The mention of a defensive coordinator change suggests upcoming adjustments that may impact future seasons positively.

Broncos Playoff Performance 57:39

“The Broncos made the playoffs and they were leading 44% of the time.”

• The discussion focuses on the Denver Broncos and their surprising success during the playoffs, as they managed to lead in games 44% of the time. This statistic highlights the team’s ability to stay competitive despite facing challenges.
• The hosts note this unexpected performance with a hint of humor, suggesting that it almost indicates the Broncos had a better head coach than Sean Payton, who is a well-known figure in the NFL. This comment reflects the fans’ and analysts’ scrutiny of coaching effectiveness in relation to team performance.

Coaching Changes in the NFL 57:58

“You got 31 teams that need a new head coach after their failure of a season.”

• The conversation shifts to the broader landscape of NFL coaching, where it is observed that many teams—31 in total—are searching for new head coaches following disappointing seasons. This predicament emphasizes the constant pressure for improvement in professional football.
• One team, however, is noted as not needing a new head coach, which implies a relationship between consistent performance and stable coaching staff. Despite initial doubts about the coach’s future, he seems to have retained his position.

Community Engagement and Support Opportunities 58:14

“Order by March 1st to get entered to win a Listener League spot.”

• The hosts encourage viewers to participate in community events and promotions. They invite listeners to order from ultimatedraftkit.com by a specific date to enter a contest for a chance to join the “Listener League,” an interactive experience for fans.
• Additionally, they promote a membership opportunity through jointhefoot.com, where supporters can gain access to extra episodes and exclusive content. This approach helps build a stronger community among fantasy football enthusiasts.