Price Check + Mattison/Cook Fallout
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Climb aboard the Alexander Mattison hype train! On today’s fantasy football podcast, reactions to Dalvin Cook being released! Plus, an ADP price check for a handful of players in fantasy football drafts, and offenses that could take a big leap forward in 2023! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for June 13th, 2023
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Fantasy Footballers Introduction and Giveaway 00:00
- The video is a Fantasy Footballers podcast episode featuring hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
- The episode is a pre-recorded vacation week special episode.
- The show offers a giveaway of a signed Garrett Wilson jersey and the details for entering it are given at FootClanGiveaway.com.
- The giveaway requires contestants to share something they love about the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK), a story of using the UDK or of winning a championship with the help of the UDK.
Quick question: Offense with the Largest Increase in Points per Game 05:05
“Is there an offense out there that you think could make the largest points per game increase in 2023?” 05:05
- Mike Wright is asked which offense he thinks could have the largest points per game increase in 2023.
- Last year’s biggest points per game increase was by Jacksonville at number one, followed by Detroit in second place.
Offensive teams with highest potential increase in points per game 05:31
- The Giants were six points below their potential and Miami was 3.7 points below their potential in the last season.
- Philadelphia had 3.6 points below their potential in the last season.
- New Orleans Saints are expected to upgrade with the return of Michael Thomas and Derek Carr.
- Ohio State Buckeyes’ Chris Olave is expected to take another step after his fantastic rookie season.
- Baltimore Ravens are expected to have a great season with Todd Monk as new OC and healthy Lamar.
- Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to make significant improvement in their performance with improvements in the offensive line and better quarterback.
“I think this is probably the odds on favorite for the largest jump this year because of everything you mentioned.” (485)
Teams with lowest points per game 07:11
- Jets were the fourth worst team in last season with 17.4 points per game.
- Despite being offensive rookie of the year, Garrett Wilson wasn’t able to improve Jets’ performance because of injuries to Breece Hall quarterback problems.
- With the inclusion of Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and return of Hall, the Jets are expected to be among the top five teams in terms of point per game jump.
“This is a team that should be in the top five in terms of points per game jump.” 07:54
Vikings inform Dalvin Cook‘s release 09:58
- The Minnesota Vikings have informed beloved running back Dalvin Cook of his imminent release.
- This is a significant change because Cook has been one of Minnesota’s most productive players in recent years.
Alexander Mattison‘s potential as a running back 10:17
- Alexander Mattison is expected to step up as the primary running back for Minnesota Vikings.
- He has impressed in his limited opportunities, and is a capable pass catcher.
- Mattison has started 6 games in his NFL career, and has been a fantasy football difference maker in those games.
- The Vikings’ coaching staff has favored a one running back system in the past, and Mattison is expected to benefit from this.
- Ty Chandler and Dwayne McBride are the backup options, but the latter is unlikely to make an immediate impact.
- With the possibility of Dalvin Cook leaving the Vikings, Mattison will likely see a significant boost in his draft position.
“I’m very, very excited for what Alexander Mattison can do… it’s like, we talked about it on the last show, that Ty Chandler probably in line to be the backup. They did draft Dwayne McBride in the seventh round… So just looking at what they have right now, this team is moving forward. Madison is their guy.” 11:05
Stocks and football 14:59
- The speaker references a recent event where people were advised not to invest in a particular stock
- Kramer, a character from the show Seinfeld, is mentioned as having advised his “boys” to sell the stock
- The speaker describes holding onto the stock and eventually seeing a significant increase in its value
- The speaker concludes by saying this is an unusual occurrence and not something that typically happens in the stock market
“And everyone’s been like, this is not one to have on in your portfolio. And you’re like, no, it’s a whole Kramer’s been hitting sell, sell, sell for his boys. And you held it and you held it, and you held it, and you held it. And then this morning you got it, got the, the hockey stick. Yeah. I mean, these things don’t usually pan out and it did. So that’s great.” 14:59
Alexander Mattison and his fantasy football value 15:21
- The speaker compares Alexander Madison to Dalvin Cook, saying that Madison is not as talented as Cook
- Despite this, the speaker believes Madison can be a solid running back in fantasy football
- The speaker thinks Madison could make a good RB2, falling somewhere in the range of 13th to 24th pick
- The speaker clarifies that Madison may not be a workhorse and may have to share the workload with others
- However, playing for a good offense makes Madison valuable for fantasy purposes
“Alexander Madison is not as talented as Dalvin Cook just period. So he’s not going to be, he isn’t going to be what Dalvin Cook was. I don’t see him as an RB one, but this is a good offense. This offense, this is a bad defense. This is a guy who’s thrust into a role where you assume even if it is a shared workload and it’s not, you know, full true workhorse. Because obviously Dalvin Cook was a, was a true, you know, 70% snap type player. You know, if Alexander Madison is a 60% snap player, that’s awesome. You want anyone, any NFL player at 60% as part of a good offense. That’s going to be valuable for fantasy. I see him as a pretty solid running back to for fantasy purposes in that 13 to 24 range.” 15:21
Assessing risk in different running backs 16:24
- The speaker poses a question about which running back poses a bigger risk in fantasy football, most likely based on ADP
- A few different comparisons are made, including Madison vs. Cam Acres and Madison vs. Rashad White
- The speaker concludes that when considering only risk, Madison is a bigger risk than J.K. Dobbins or David Montgomery
- However, the speaker thinks that the cost of drafting Aaron Jones or Alexander Madison is minimal and may be worth the risk
“Let’s play a game briefly. What, who’s the bigger risk? Okay. I’m going to say it’s Madison or just risk, just risk. Okay. Just like, because there’s a bunch of players that you have a bet you have to make a bet on at running back. We talked about him recently is Madison or Cam Acres a bigger risk acres acres. Okay. Is Alexander Madison or Rashad White a bigger risk Rashad White White is J K Dobbins or Alexander Madison a bigger risk. Madison. Yep. David Montgomery or Alexander Madison. Who’s the bigger risk Montgomery Madison. You don’t risk. I that’s a matter of what it costs. I just feel like it doesn’t, you’re not risking a lot on Aaron Jones or Alexander Madison. Who’s the bigger risk that one? That one is super interesting. They’re back to back for me.” 16:24
Mattison’s potential goal line usage 18:21
- The speaker believes that Madison’s potential success in fantasy football relies heavily on his ability to score touchdowns
- The speakers thinks that Madison is a big enough back to be used in goal line situations
- The speaker notes that Madison had five touchdowns last season, but thinks that four or eight touchdowns would make a big difference in Madison’s value for fantasy football
“And for me, it’s touchdowns. And what is the target share look like? Cause Dalvin Cook, that was the lowest target share of Dalvin Cook‘s career. He was down at 9%. So this will, will Madison see nine or 10% of the targets or will he? That could be more reflective of the, the new offense that we got last year. That’s what I’m saying. They added Addison, added Addison. Nice. They added. Jordan Addison. But it’s like, there’s a big difference if Madison sees 6% of the targets or closer to 10. That’s, that would be a wide swing for his famous.” 19:00
“I think four touchdowns, eight touchdowns, totally different season for Madison. I would agree with you on that. But if I had to bet whether or not Alexander Madison can succeed in the touchdown game, I think he will. He had five touchdowns last year. Sure. You know, on only 74 carries, he’s a 216 pound back. It’s big enough to be used around the goal line. And like I said, good offense. And that was while Dalvin had eight rushing touchdowns. So, yeah, I think that the opportunity for, you know, upside is certainly there for Madison.” 18:21
Addison vs Mattison, and Dalvin Cook and Deandre Hopkins as free agents 19:29
- There is a debate between Addison and Madison in reference to a fantasy football draft pick.
- There is an expectation that Dalvin Cook and Deandre Hopkins will become free agents.
- Players who will become free agents market themselves for more money than they eventually receive.
- There are two potential landing sites for Dalvin Cook – Buffalo and Miami – and Miami might be the more likely destination.
- Hopkins has also expressed interest in going to Buffalo.
- The Broncos and New Orleans are additional landing sites for him.
“These players generally hit the market with an expectation of more money than they’ll get” 20:20
“He [Cook] wants to play with his brother” 20:40
Potential destinations for Dalvin Cook and fantasy implications 20:58
- Dalvin Cook and Deandre Hopkins leaving teams could shake up the fantasy football landscape.
- The Miami Dolphins would be a top destination fantasy-wise.
- Dalvin Cook may split carries with Devin A.J. and earn around 60% of the work.
- The Broncos would be the preferred destination for the speaker and could use Cook as a one-year player.
- The Saints, with their running game and limited competition, are another option.
- The situation creates a sense of anticipation for fantasy football managers.
Alexander Mattison no longer a reliable handcuff 23:33
- Alexander Madison is a running back who was the backup for Dalvin Cook.
- With Cook as a free agent, Madison is no longer a reliable fantasy handcuff.
- The speaker recommends trading Madison for another fantasy asset if you have him on your team.
- Fantasy managers who have Madison as a backup should be aware of the uncertain situation caused by Cook’s free agency.
“If there’s a guy in your league like Mike, you trade him Alexander Madison today. Because that’s it. You trade him, sir” 23:43
Trading strategy for rookie Alexander Mattison 23:56
- The video suggests that trading Alexander Mattison at his peak value is the best move.
- The hosts recommend trading him for a player who hasn’t proven themselves yet.
- It is possible to win a trade if you get a player who delivers well and at the same time trade off Mattison.
“If you can trade Madison at his peak value, this is just a principle we bring up all the time. […] If you can trade him for what he hasn’t proven, you don’t lose the deal.” 24:00
ADP value prediction game for players 25:15
- The hosts play a game of guessing the ADP value of players for the upcoming fantasy football drafts.
- They discuss the value of ADP as a measure of player performance in a league.
- The game involves them guessing the ADP value of a player and comparing it with the actual value.
- Christian Watson, a wide receiver for the Packers, is discussed and his past performance is evaluated.
“We’re going to take a shot at guessing ADP for a number of players while we talk about them.” 25:32
Christian Watson‘s talent 28:38
- The hosts discuss Christian Watson‘s draft spot, which is a position they don’t mind.
- They believe talent generally wins out, and it’s competent enough to pull that off.
- They compare his potential to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Gabriel Davis.
“When I look at him, obviously he did not have a large college production profile, but he was playing for a team that was a run first team.” 30:17
Rookie wide receivers with seven plus receiving touchdowns on fewer than 45 receptions 31:01
- The hosts refer to a stat on five players in history who achieved this feat as a rookie.
- Christian Watson is on top of the list, followed by Martavis Bryant, Gabriel Davis, Johan Dotson, and Anthony Miller.
- They don’t seem to be very excited about the fact that he’s on top of that list.
- Running back Miles Sanders is a fantastic value at 510, according to the hosts.
- Sanders could be a workhorse running back, as he will likely play a significant amount of snaps.
- However, there are concerns about the offense given the rookie quarterback and its history of struggling.
- Host Mike has optimism for Sanders and thinks he’ll be competent in a bad division but notes that there is also risk involved.
- On the other hand, Alexander Mattison, who is ranked close to Sanders, might be a better choice for those who want to bet on a strong Vikings offense led by quarterback Kirk Cousins.
“I like as of today, I think I would take Madison,” Mike says (2220).
Travis Etienne‘s Fantasy Value 37:26
- Travis Etienne is a running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- The team projects to win the division.
- During the 2020 season, Etienne wasn’t as used in the passing game as expected despite his capability there and the connection with Trevor Lawrence.
- Etienne had an explosive start to the season, averaging 5.1 a carry in the second half and nine yards per reception.
- The team is considering lessening his workload after he garnered over 220 carries the previous season.
- The hosts expect Etienne to have a wide range of outcomes despite him not qualifying as a wild card.
- His average draft position is a bit high given his medium outcome prediction, and he may not be a prudent choice for a third-round pick.
- Etienne’s coaching staff has a history of using a substantial timeshare with a large number of running backs in a system.
- Etienne is projected to be more efficient with less volume.
- His situation with a quarterback on the rise and a great athletic ability presents a tough bet against.
“I think he’s going to be very high in average draft position because of his explosive beginning to… I think RB 13 or 14. I’m going to go 12.” 38:54
Fantasy Outlook for Michael Pittman 41:53
- Michael Pittman is the topic of conversation for the Fantasy Footballers.
- He had 99 receptions last year but his receiving yards were the lowest ever for a wide receiver with that many receptions.
- The team lost Paris Campbell but has a better offensive head coach than last year.
- There is some concern due to the fact that rookie quarterbacks tend to fail to support a top 36 wide receiver.
- The mobile QB Anthony Richardson is expected to play, which might lead to fewer downfield targets for Pittman.
“What will this team be like at, at the team level? What’s the pace of play going to be? I, will it be a little bit slower? It certainly could be now take a mobile quarterback into that situation where every dropback you have a chance that instead of actually unloading a target, Anthony Richardson, the positive play for him might be run.” (2680)
- The hosts predict Pittman will be drafted around WR24-25 in the 5th/6th rounds.
“I think he’s going to go much higher. He’s still got a very recognizable name and had a lot of stats last year. I’m going to say like wide receiver 24, which…” 45:11
Anthony Richardson‘s passing yards projection 45:50
- Analysts discuss Anthony Richardson‘s projected passing yards for the season
- Despite his impressive athletic ability and growing potential, Richardson not expected to throw for 4000 yards
- Analysts believe that he needs to achieve an outrageous market share to warrant being ranked above other proven wide receivers
“I personally have Anthony Richardson start to play the entire season and finished with 2800 passing yards. If it’s a number like that, your market share would have to be outrageous.” (2777)
Rankings of wide receiver options 46:54
- Analysts discuss the ranking of Jehan Dotson as the 37th wide receiver option
- Names of other wide receivers are mentioned with some analysts preferring others over Dotson
- Most of these names are taken over Dotson, who is ranked low due to being in a possible wide receiver dead zone
- The analysts rank him higher than his ADP at 20, 28, and 32
“I mean, most of these names I’m taking over, it is kind of like maybe it’s a wide receiver dead zone for me where I want to wait for some, some of those other names.” 47:17
Jahan Dotson‘s projected ADP 47:35
-Analysts discuss ADP projection of Jehan Dotson -They give correct ADP of 809 at wide receiver 37 -They explain Dotson is ranked much higher than his ADP due to his consolidation of targets with Terry McLaurin
“We do this full time. We’re kind of the best at it. Okay. So, Jehan Dotson doesn’t get the suspense, but we all ranked significantly higher than that ADP. Wide receiver 37. I’ve got him at 20, Jason at 28, Mike at 32.” (2897)
Talent projection for Jahan Dotson 48:27
-Analysts discuss the talent of Jehan Dotson -His talent was easily viewable during end of last season -He and Terry McLaurin consolidated targets with the possibility of further improvement in the next season -Year two wide receivers usually perform well and outperform their ADP
“What we saw towards the end of last year when Jehan Dotson got back from his injury was a real consolidation of targets between him and Terry McLaurin. That’s how I’ve projected this next season to be with him taking another step forward.” 48:43
Committing to a quarterback 50:44
- When a team keeps switching quarterbacks, it’s usually because they are losing, and they have little patience for their current quarterback to improve.
- Draft capital is very important because if the team invested highly in a quarterback, then they will likely have more patience with him.
- Washington should consider committing to a quarterback and giving him time to develop instead of going with the competition during camp.
- Jon Dodson is a great talent, and his upside is more exciting than Terry McClaren’s floor as long as both players remain healthy.
- McClaren and Dodson had a neck-to-neck touchdown pace last year.
- Often, the second player may have better value for where they are being drafted than the first player.
“If you’re going to go in on one, I’m going in on John Dodson.” 52:47
Deebo Samuel‘s Bounceback 53:25
- Debo Samuel expects to bounce back from an awful season.
- It is better for Samuel to recognize his poor performance because it shows he wants to improve.
“You see Debo Samuel came out and said he’s going to bounce back from his quote awful season, it’s nice to know yourself. Yeah, I like that better than him coming out and being like, I was awesome last year.” 53:25