NFC West Breakdown + Angry RBs
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Final divisional preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Fantasy breakdown for the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals! Plus, lots of NFL News and a new edition of Best Ball Breakdown! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for July 27th, 2023.
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Angry RBs 07:50
- J.K. Dobbins is not practicing and John Harbaugh’s latest comment suggests uncertainty about his status. 07:53
- Josh Jacobs has left the Las Vegas team and will be absent for a while. 08:12
“Right now it seems like it’s a money thing” – The Fantasy Footballers 08:20
Josh Jacobs‘ Situation with the Raiders 08:33
- Josh Jacobs expressed his willingness to play for the Raiders as long as they invest in improving the team.
- There has been a fallout between Jacobs and the team, possibly due to feeling unfairly compensated or inadequate investment in the team.
- According to sources, there’s an 85% chance Jacobs will play in Week 1, a 10% chance of a trade, and a 5% chance of a holdout.
“He wants to be a Raider, but he wants to be paid.”
Jameson Williams‘ Injury and Suspension 13:09
- Jameson Williams suffered a leg injury and is already serving a six-game suspension.
- While the leg injury is not considered significant, he won’t practice and will be in recovery during his suspension.
“I don’t think it’s significant, but he’s not going to practice, but he’ll have to be recovering from injury during that suspension.”
Concerns about Kyle Pitts‘ Recovery 13:28
- Kyle Pitts participated in the first training camp practice but was wearing a knee brace following his MCL surgery in November.
- It is unusual for a player to still wear a brace eight months after an isolated MCL repair, which suggests additional knee damage.
- There might be a need for Pitts to take time to ramp up due to his knee situation.
“It suggests that there might have been more damage to the knee than we knew about or were talking about.”
Kadarius Toney‘s Ongoing Knee Issues 14:37
- Cadarius Tony underwent his third knee scope in two years for cartilage cleanup.
- He has struggled with injuries, which have negatively impacted his performance.
“It’s not been good for Cadarius Tony.”
Jimmy Graham Returns to the Saints 15:06
- The New Orleans Saints signed Jimmy Graham to a one-year deal, bringing him out of retirement.
- Initially, it was believed that Graham was signing to retire as a Saint, but he is returning to play football.
“Jimmy grandpa is out of retirement.”
49ers injuries and offensive weapons 17:46
- The 49ers have dealt with a slew of injuries to key players in recent years.
- Last season saw notable absences from players like Elijah Mitchell, Trey Lance, Jimmy G, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.
- Despite the injuries, the 49ers’ offense has remained productive with strong fantasy options.
“You can’t really talk about the 49ers without talking about great fantasy football options and the slew of injuries that they seem to suffer and deal with every single year.”
49ers’ offensive game plan 18:44
- The 49ers’ offense is designed to get the ball into the hands of playmakers and generate yards after the catch.
- Warren Sharp’s analysis shows that their quarterbacks rank highly in yards after the catch per attempt since 2017.
- Their weapons include Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.
- The offense often relies on softening the defense before taking shots down the field.
“They get the ball into Playmakers’ Hands, which they’ve got McCaffrey in the passing game, Kittle in the passing game, Debo, who’s better than Debo? And then, Brandon I.E. can do it too. And so, that’s part of their game plan, is putting their quarterbacks, that’s why the quarterbacks all succeed there, in large part because they’re not always asked to do stuff down the field, or when they are, they pick their spots and they’ve softened the defense up.”
Evaluation of Brock Purdy as a fantasy asset 19:54
- Brock Purdy will be the starting quarterback for the 49ers, with Trey Lance serving as a backup.
- Although Purdy performed well and won games last season, his fantasy output was not particularly impressive.
- Purdy’s highest-scoring games yielded around 21 points, which is average at best for fantasy purposes.
- Purdy is currently being undervalued in drafts and can be considered as a QB2 or a streamer option.
“But even still, you look at the fantasy output when he was successful throwing touchdowns, and you’re talking 21 points, that’s okay. 16 points, 16 points, 17 points, 19 points. He wasn’t doing anything special for fantasy football.”
ADP considerations for Brock Purdy 21:19
- Currently, Brock Purdy is being drafted very low due to concerns about his health and limited fantasy upside.
- Purdy’s ADP may never catch up to his actual value due to starting with an injury and being a non-exceptional fantasy asset.
- In dynasty startups or deep drafts, Purdy might be worth a late-round flier or a backup quarterback in SuperFlex leagues.
“And I don’t think the ADP will ever catch up to where he should be simply because it started with the injury where nobody was drafting him so he was really, really late. And now when you’re really, really late, it’s hard to climb up when you’re not a special fantasy asset and he’s not.”
“Yeah, the guys that climb up are ones that you already have seen their production in the past and you’re just like, oh, I’m gonna pencil them in and they’ll be back in that spot. And he does not run the ball. So I mean, you’re talking about his- Goals.”
Evaluating Christian McCaffrey as a top RB 22:29
- Christian McCaffrey is considered an overall RB1 in fantasy football.
- While some may prefer wide receivers over him, McCaffrey is still highly valued as a running back.
“Christian McCaffrey, do you guys like him? Yep. Overall RB won. I mean, I don’t mind if people want the wide receivers over him, but if I’m taking a running back…”
Christian McCaffrey‘s Consistency and Value 22:38
- Christian McCaffrey is locked in as the top pick in fantasy football due to his consistent performance and central role in the offense. 22:41
- McCaffrey averaged 21 opportunities per game when he played for the San Francisco 49ers. 22:44
- His snap percentages varied with the presence of Elijah Mitchell, but that doesn’t deter from his overall value. 23:08
“What’s crazy is he scored a lot more when Elijah Mitchell was not on the field than he did when Elijah Mitchell was healthy… His lower scoring with Mitchell is still good enough to be the running back number one overall.”
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk’s Upside and Rankings 24:21
- Both Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk are ranked as wide receiver twos with significant upside. 24:26
- Last season, Ayuk emerged as a standout player, while Samuel dealt with distractions from his contract. 24:41
- Samuel’s target share in games alongside McCaffrey, Kittle, and Ayuk was 25.5%, signaling trust in his abilities. 25:19
“Debo had 25.5% target share in those games… I do believe that if he’s out there and he’s healthy… he has put a lot of effort into this off season. He’s a player I’m willing to go out on a ledge.”
Inconsistencies and Potential in the 49ers Offense 26:46
- Despite the talent in the San Francisco offense, there is a risk of inconsistency in performance. 27:44
- Even with potential injuries and target distribution among various players, Samuel stands out as one of the best. 26:39
- Debo and Ayuk will have their games, alongside Kittle and McCaffrey, making them good weekly options. 29:13
“I think it’ll be a couple of really good options each week.”
George Kittle in Fantasy 29:41
- George Kittle has been undervalued in fantasy drafts.
- People are not as excited about drafting Kittle compared to other tight ends like Hawkinson.
- Both Jason and Mike are hesitant to draft Kittle early.
“I don’t think so.” 30:00
Kittle’s Potential 30:28
- Kittle has shown the ability to score touchdowns.
- He has performed well in the final four weeks of previous seasons.
- Kittle is highly skilled, but often not utilized in the passing game.
Upcoming Schedule for the 49ers 30:55
- The 49ers will start the season with away games against Pittsburgh, the Rams, and the Giants.
- They will then have a home game against the Cardinals.
- This tough schedule may impact Kittle’s performance.
“They will start the season on the road against Pittsburgh, on the road against the Rams, and then the Giants in Arizona at home.” 31:02
Geno Smith and the Seahawks 31:19
- Geno Smith performed well last year and is considered a competent quarterback.
- The Seahawks have made some acquisitions to strengthen their team.
- The team has high expectations this year and is favored to win more games than last season.
Geno Smith‘s Fantasy Value 32:28
- Geno Smith can be a valuable late-round pick in fantasy drafts.
- He may not finish as a top quarterback, but he has the potential to be a top 12 quarterback.
- Smith’s first four matchups are favorable, making him a good streaming option.
“I think he’s a great target in drafts because he’s just, we aren’t overpaying for Geno.” 34:50
Punting the Quarterback Position 35:30
- If you choose to wait on drafting a quarterback, Geno Smith can be a reliable option.
- Pairing Smith with a high-upside backup like Anthony Richardson can give you a balanced quarterback strategy.
- This strategy allows you to have both competence and upside at the position.
“I have actually started to implement it in my personal strategies and drafts.” 35:37
Seahawks Offense 36:23
- The Seahawks were a “big play” team and had the most touchdowns of 10 plus yards in the NFL.
- The addition of explosive players like Metcalf and Jackson Smith and Jigba is expected to improve their offense.
- Tyler Lockett, despite not being ranked the highest, will be a red zone threat throughout the entire year, while Metcalf will be a burner on the outside who catches deep touchdowns.
“And this was a big play team… That was the most in the NFL.”
Tyler Lockett‘s Consistency 36:49
- Tyler Lockett is often overlooked in fantasy drafts for various reasons presented by the fantasy community every year.
- However, he has been a top 15 wide receiver for five years in a row and is expected to outperform his average draft position (ADP) this year.
- Lockett is a reliable player who finds ways to help the quarterback and has a good track record of playing full seasons with minimal injuries.
“You know, you always have a different reason not to take him… but he’s going to be better than where you draft him.”
Seahawks Running Back Situation 38:57
- Kenneth Walker showed his potential by being the RB5 from weeks five through 12.
- However, the team’s drafting of Zach Charbonnet has caused Walker’s value to drop in dynasty drafts.
- Charbonnet is expected to be utilized more in the red zone and is a better pass catcher, which makes him a more attractive fantasy option.
- Both Walker and Charbonnet could be drafted, but close attention needs to be paid to preseason utilization and potential workload shifts during the season.
“Kenneth Walker was the RB5 from weeks five through 12… I’m fine drafting both players and just believing in the offense of the team and the running game.”
Rams Offensive Struggles 42:09
- The Rams had a disappointing season last year, falling apart after their Super Bowl appearance.
- They had one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking low in pace of play, points per game, and total yards.
- However, with the return of key players like Stafford and Cupp, and the subtraction of Alan Robinson, there is optimism that the offense will bounce back under the guidance of coach Sean McVay.
“And I’m, you know, I’m refusing to just believe.”
Rams Offense Analysis 43:14
- The Rams have potential to be a good team.
- The presence of a healthy Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, along with Cameron Akers in the backfield, are promising.
- The team’s defense may not be great, similar to the Lions last year.
“This team is not gonna be a great defense.”
Risk with the Rams 43:42
- The Rams’ offensive success may resemble that of the Lions from last year, which could be beneficial for Stafford, Kupp, Jefferson, and Akers.
- However, the team’s defense is a concern.
- Matthew Stafford has a history of turning the ball over.
- The head coach’s job could be at risk, along with Stafford and Aaron Donald, if things don’t go well.
“No more Jalen Ramsey.” “It wasn’t good last year.” “No big additions on offense.” “Stafford has had problems with turning the football over.”
Undervalued Rams Players 44:36
- There are several undervalued players on the Rams’ roster.
- Stafford has the potential to outperform his current quarterback ranking.
- Cameron Akers, despite being in the fifth round, is an interesting running back option.
- Cooper Kupp is being underdrafted and could be a steal if Stafford stays healthy.
“Stafford as the quarterback 23.” “Cameron Akers is an incredibly interesting running back.” “Cooper Cup can be the number one guy.” “Cooper Cup is being under drafted in the first round.”
Concerns and Upside Potential 46:50
- The potential downside for the Rams is a lack of offensive production if things go wrong.
- A struggling offensive line, combined with injury concerns for Stafford, could undermine the team’s success.
- It’s important to consider diversification when drafting Rams players.
- However, there is fantasy value in almost every Rams player if they perform well.
“The basement could be the least amount of offense possible.” “The biggest fear is Stafford’s health.” “If Stafford is healthy all season, Cooper Cup is being underdrafted.” “There’s fantasy value here in almost every Rams player.”
Analysis and Injury Concerns 48:45
- Cooper Kupp has a history of dominance and could excel if Stafford is healthy.
- The Cardinals game and a tough start to the season might impact the Rams negatively.
- The Rams have a lot of unknowns and lack overall talent, especially on defense.
- Kyler Murray‘s injury concerns create uncertainty for the Cardinals.
“If Stafford’s healthy, he’s worth the risk.” “The first three weeks of the season are rough for the Rams.” “The team does not have a lot of talent.”
Cardinals’ Previous Season 50:28
- The 2018 Arizona Cardinals team was a train wreck, going 1-2 and securing the first overall pick 50:30
- The team had no quarterbacks, relying on Josh Rosen 51:09
- The 2018 team won’t be replicated as Kyler Murray‘s presence at quarterback provides an offensive opportunity 50:50
“That 2018 team had no quarterbacks.”
Underestimated Fantasy Value in the Cardinals 51:12
- The Cardinals’ ADPs are likely to be driven down due to their reputation as the worst team in football 51:26
- However, there are valuable fantasy options in the team, including Kyler Murray, James Conner, Hollywood Brown, and the tight end position 51:41
“I think there’s actually quite a bit of value to be had for fantasy from the Arizona Cardinals because it appears so putrid that people want to be hands-off.”
Defense and Expectations 52:11
- The Cardinals’ defense only has one standout player, Bouda, who is expected to play for the team 52:18
- With a potential healthy Kyler Murray and a weak defense, fantasy points are expected to be scored 53:10
“If Kyler plays week one, Hollywood Brown is the singular best steal at wide receiver in the draft right now, in my opinion.”
Other Potential Value Players 54:50
- Other potential fantasy value players in the Cardinals include Trey McBride, Ron Dale Moore, and Michael Wilson 54:50
- Ron Dale Moore could thrive in the slot position where he has excelled before 55:19
- Trey McBride, despite not being a primary target in drafts, is worth considering if he has a breakout performance 55:58
“Ron Dale Moore is still interesting to me. I have him ranked above his current ADP.”
Rapid Changes in Best Ball ADP 57:17
- Van Jefferson experienced the biggest movement in average draft position among wide receivers, rising 53 spots 57:44
“That 2018 team had no quarterbacks.” “I think there’s actually quite a bit of value to be had for fantasy from the Arizona Cardinals because it appears so putrid that people want to be hands-off.” “If Kyler plays week one, Hollywood Brown is the singular best steal at wide receiver in the draft right now, in my opinion.” “Ron Dale Moore is still interesting to me. I have him ranked above his current ADP.”
Wide receiver analysis 58:01
- Ron Dalmore moved up 44 spots after DeAndre Hopkins‘ departure.
- Tim Patrick moved up 35 spots due to positive news on his health.
- Nico Collins also rose by 35 spots.
- Paris Campbell moved up 30 spots, Guy Moore by 27, and Devonte Parker also by 27.
“I do think he has opportunities there without Brandon Cooks.”
Van Jefferson and Tim Patrick standouts 58:20
- Van Jefferson jumped up 53 spots, likely due to discussions about him.
- Tim Patrick, despite his career-high being only 53 receptions, is a strong option.
- Tim Patrick‘s ADP is 167, which is still late in the draft.
“And Tim Patrick to me is someone that I think, he got a lot of money. He produced very well.”
Rookie quarterback concerns 59:02
- Some people appreciate Nico Collins‘ potential with an improved quarterback and flashes from last year, but rookie quarterback situations are risky.
“I just don’t want the rookie quarterback situation here.”
DeVante Parker as a late-round option 59:50
- Devonte Parker at ADP 188 is seen as a good choice for an end-of-draft wide receiver.
- He is expected to be the number one wide receiver for the Patriots, with the team rewarding him with more money.
“Why not Devonte Parker who could be, I mean, he really should be the number one wide receiver for the Patriots.”
Running backs on the rise 01:00:55
- Alexander Madison gained the most with a jump after Dalvin Cook‘s departure.
- Jerome Ford appears to be the backup to Nick Chubb in Cleveland and is being praised for his pass-catching abilities.
- Tank Bigsby, Antonio Gibson, and Jaylen Warren also moved up significantly.
“People taking shots on injuries to the starters or emerging talents behind them.”
“Jerome Ford is, we don’t know if Chubb’s going to get everything, but Karim Hunt had an important role and he’s gone, so he could actually end up scoring even if Chubb is healthy.”