Early Busts & Values + Draft Strategy
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Fantasy football busts on today’s fantasy football podcast! Andy, Mike, and Jason each pick a player they think will disappoint fantasy managers in 2023. Plus, late-round value picks for fantasy football drafts and more! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for June 27th, 2023.
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Early Bust Picks and Value Picks 01:43
- Each host has prepared early bust picks and late-round value picks
- Discussion will cover various positions
“We both, or all of us have picked out some early bust picks.” “Some players going late in drafts that, you know, I think we all look at as opportunities to strengthen a roster.”
Thanking UDK Testimonial Videos 02:08
- Gratitude for those who submitted UDK testimonial videos
- Mention of Garrett Wilson Jersey giveaway
“I do want to thank everybody that submitted their UDK testimonial videos.” “We held that Garrett Wilson, Jersey giveaway over the last couple of weeks.”
Winner Announcement 02:24
- Announcement of the winner of the signed Garrett Wilson Jersey
- Excitement and congratulations to the winner (“Funky Dan”)
“The winner of the signed Garrett Wilson, Jersey.” “Congratulations to Funky Dan from Kentucky.”
Twitter Handles and Community Mention 03:36
- Mentioning Twitter handles and encouraging listeners to follow the show
- Mention of the community website at jointhefoot.com
“You can follow Mike at FFHitman, Jason at Jason FFL.” “And you can follow me at Andy Holloway, the community.” “You can find that at jointhefoot.com.”
Explaining Tiers 04:48
- Responding to a question about how tiers work in the Ultimate Draft Kit
- Explaining that tiers group players together based on similar value
- Tiers help indicate the relative value of players within a specific position or across positions
- Example of using tiers in decision making during a draft
“Tiers are extremely important.” “They take linear rankings […] and group players in the same tier.” “Tiers […] give you a visual glance […] of players with similar value.” “It helps you have a better value for your draft pair.” “That means that I’m going to be guaranteed to get one of those running backs.” “That means that I’m going to be guaranteed to get one of those running backs.” “It’s a grouping of players at a specific value.” “That’s the best summary.” “They can be very, very useful.” “Tier-based drafting is what we’ve always recommended with the Ultimate Draft Kit.”
Three Shows a Week 08:19
- Announcement that the show will have three episodes per week starting in July
- Mention of upcoming training camp news and unnecessary hype about players
“That means that training camp is…” “Until we can come in with unnecessary hype about players.”
- Announcement that show episodes will be on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays
- Mention of an off day for the 4th of July
“Episodes will be Tuesday and Thursday, like they are now, Saturday episode starting this week.” “We will be off on the 4th of July.”
Upcoming Episode Schedule 09:11
- The hosts will be celebrating the holiday with their families, so there will be some changes to the episode schedule.
- They will be back with another episode on Thursday.
- There will be a dynasty episode on Wednesday for the dynasty podcast.
- Overall, there will still be plenty of content with three shows a week for the rest of July.
“You’re going to have plenty of content.” 09:23
Increased Show Frequency in August 09:32
- Starting in August, the show will air five times a week.
- The hosts are preparing for this by staying active and getting ready for the season.
“Five shows a week starting in August.” 09:32
Football Excitement 09:43
- One of the hosts stumbled upon a Twitter account that shows classic clips of NFL games.
- They got really into it and realized how much they love football.
- They are excited for the upcoming season.
“Man, I really like football.” 10:07
Current Lull in News 10:35
- There is not much news happening in the NFL at the moment.
- There haven’t been big player signings or major developments.
- The hosts are waiting for more information before discussing certain topics.
- However, they are excited that football is on the way.
“Football is on the way.” 10:54
Introduction to the Bust Picks 10:56
- The hosts begin discussing their early bust picks for the upcoming fantasy football season.
- Each host will share their selection of a player to avoid.
- The first pick will be a tight end.
Tight End Bust Pick: T.J. Hockenson 11:20
- Andy reveals his bust pick, T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings.
- Hockenson is currently ranked high but Andy believes he is not worth the draft cost.
- Although he had a decent PPR pace last year, Andy thinks Hockenson’s numbers are inflated due to two spike games.
- Andy also points out the presence of Jordan Addison, a first-round wide receiver for the Vikings, who is likely to have a bigger impact and take away targets from Hockenson.
“I don’t think he’s going to be a difference maker.” 15:05
- If Darren Waller ends the season with more targets, yards, and touchdowns than TJ Hawkinson, it shouldn’t be a surprise.
- Drafting Waller in the eighth round instead of spending a high pick on Hawkinson allows for more flexibility.
“If Darren Waller ends the season with more targets, yards, and touchdowns than TJ Hawkinson, I’m not shocked.” “And if that happens, you’re getting him in the eighth round versus spinning a really high draft capital pick on someone that if you grab Hawkinson in the fourth round, he has to perform in weak winning fashion.”
Inconsistency of TJ Hockenson 17:27
- Despite accumulating impressive stats, Hawkinson did not consistently win fantasy weeks.
- Hawkinson had top-five performances, but not multiple top performances.
“And Mike, I think the most telling stat was that in his time with the Vikings, even though he accumulated a lot of stats, he did not win you weeks.” “It just won top five performance.”
- KJ Osborn‘s performance in the later part of the season and his involvement in the offense brings uncertainty to Hawkinson’s role.
- There is a risk associated with Hawkinson due to the possibility of distribution in the offense.
“But KJ Osborn over the last four weeks of the year, he had a 117 yard game, 157 yard game with 16 targets.” “So you do have the possibility of him, you know, based on what they’ve been talking about in Minnesota, he’s 26 years old.” “So there will be distribution around that offense and there is some risk there with Hawkinson.” “So, you know, there are times in which we’ve been bullish about TJ Hawkinson.” “Or Jason has been a big supporter in previous years because of the value.” “But right now he does seem very high.”
Concerns with Kenneth Walker 18:51
- The speaker expresses concerns about Kenneth Walker‘s fantasy potential despite acknowledging his talent and upside.
- The speaker highlights Walker’s uncertain role due to the addition of Zach Charbonnet.
- Walker’s reliance on big plays for fantasy production is a cause for concern.
- Charbonnet’s strengths in red zone and pass-catching may limit Walker’s opportunities.
“I’m going to give you my bust pick and people are not going to like it.” “I’m talking about last year’s rookie sensation, Kenneth Walker, the third running back for the Seattle Seahawks.” “And if at the end of this year he ends up being a bell cow and being awesome, I’m certainly not going to be, I’m not going to be, you know, surprised because he obviously can do that.” “In fact, our early running back rankings show that we did on the fantasy footballers for this coming season, we had him as our running back six.” “That is the level of upside that we see in the talent of this player.” “The problem is right now he’s being drafted as the top 15 running back.” “And in the second round, Pete Carroll had to ruin our nice fun things and draft Charbonnet.” “Yeah, I mean, he’s a good, both these guys are good players and this is good for the Seahawks.” “I just think he’s, he’s a little, he’s a little scary to me.” “Well, I’ve got him at running back 22 in my personal rankings.” “I wanted to really dig in because when talent is there and you see it on the football field.” “Yeah, I mean, I will, I will say, Mike, you’ve brought this up in favor of Kenneth Walker.” “This is good information to keep in mind if you, you know, look, if you want to just bet on Kenneth Walker‘s talent, I don’t have any problem with that.”
Kenneth Walker‘s uncertain role in the backfield 24:44
- The uncertainty surrounding Kenneth Walker‘s role in the backfield stems from both the injury history of Rashad Penny and the lack of opportunity for rookie running backs.
- Walker’s injury concerns, having been hurt twice last year and entering the season hurt, adds to the uncertainty.
- The presence of other players like DJ Dallas and Travis Homer, who shouldn’t have had as many snaps, also adds to the nervousness regarding Walker’s role.
“I think we’ve laid out a good case here of he could go either way. And so it’ll be up to the, you know, just drafters choice of do you believe in Walker?” 25:24
Values in Fantasy Football 32:37
- Values are the writer’s favorite category.
- Consensus picks, sleepers, breakouts, and busts are all part of the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK).
- Values are players that are deemed valuable and can be targeted in drafts.
- Some players can’t move up in ADP because of factors like age.
- Example of an older player in this category is Keenan Allen.
- This category includes players who have emerged into new roles and their potential is unknown.
“To me, values are my favorite.”
Diontae Johnson‘s Value 40:41
- Diontae Johnson was considered a bust last year due to being drafted too high for a rookie quarterback to support 40:41
- Johnson finished as the WR39 last year but only needed one touchdown to finish as a top 36 wide receiver 41:28
- Kenny Pickett, the sophomore quarterback, is expected to improve his touchdown rate, leading to more success for Johnson 41:56
- Johnson has consistently earned targets and is one of only eight wide receivers in the NFL to have a 23% target share each of the last three seasons 42:52
“Last year, he was going way too high for a rookie quarterback to come in and support. He was like a third or fourth-round pick. 70% of rookie quarterbacks fail to support a top 36 wide receiver.” 41:07
“Diontae Johnson is a great value this season. He’s being drafted as the WR34, which is around his baseline. If he gets six touchdowns, like Jakobi Meyers did, you’re talking about a top 20 wide receiver.” 43:48
Samaje Perine as a Value Pick 46:35
- Samaje Perine is being drafted in the ninth to tenth round, making him a valuable late-round pick as the RB39 46:35
- Despite his previous lackluster performances in Cincinnati, there is hope for Perine with the Denver Broncos 47:03
- Perine is expected to provide depth behind Joe Mixon and has a chance to shine if Mixon gets injured 47:09
“I have J.P. Ryan as a value pick. He’s being drafted as the RB39, but I have him ranked a bit higher at 21. He’s a late-round pick that could provide depth and potential upside.” 46:56
- Joe Mixon represented a snap goblin except for he was good.
- Frustrated with him being on third down all the time.
“And we really were frustrated by the fact he ended up on third down all of the time.”
Samaje Perine‘s Strength in Passing Situations 47:28
- Samaje Perine is known for his strength in passing situations.
- He has a lifetime catch percentage of 85.6%.
- Brought into Denver with a purpose.
“And what Samaje Perine is known for is strength in passing situations.” “He has a lifetime catch percentage of 85.6%.”
Opportunities for Samaje Perine in Sean Payton’s Offense 47:43
- New head coach and Sean Payton have a history of utilizing running backs well in passing situations.
- Perine had 46 receptions last year.
- Javonte Williams‘ health is uncertain, giving Perine the opportunity to shine.
“By a brand new head coach and Sean Payton that has a history of utilizing running backs well especially in passing situations.” “He had 46 receptions last year.” “We do not know where Javante Williams health truly is and that will play a factor but I think Perine is being massively overlooked.”
Sean Payton’s Praise for Samaje Perine 48:56
- Sean Payton has spoken highly of Perine, praising his receiving ability and toughness.
“If you watch P Ryan you see him play third down he’s a great receiver.” “He’s tough he’s built to last.”
Sean Payton’s History with Running Backs 49:26
- Payton has a history of utilizing multiple running backs effectively.
- Latavius Murray had value last year in the Saints’ offense.
“So much of here I was going to have every opportunity to be a high value guy and Sean Payton’s come out and talked about him.” “When Camaro was doing his damage, Mark Ingram was there and he was the main guy in terms of carries.”
Samaje Perine‘s Fantasy Value 50:17
- Perine is being underrated in fantasy drafts.
- His ADP may rise if Javonte Williams‘ health remains uncertain.
- Perine’s late-season production and coaching confidence make him a valuable late-round gamble.
“If you are drafting right now, I think Perine is worth the late-round gamble investment.” “His ADP is going to go up.” “Perine and Rashad Penny are worth the late-round gamble investment.”
“So for both of these like Perine and Rashaad Penny, it’s trying to get out in front of it like if you are drafting right now, you know we don’t have all the information, so this is how we are projecting these players.”