Early Breakouts & Sleepers + Dalvin Cook Rumors

Fantasy football breakout and sleeper picks! On today’s fantasy football podcast, future superstars, and players who could make a surprise impact in 2023! Plus, NFL News and rumors that are making Jason sweat! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for June 22nd, 2023.

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Summary:

Breakouts and Sleepers 01:06

• The hosts discuss breakouts and sleepers in fantasy football.
• In the current media landscape with social media and podcasts, it’s hard for players to stay hidden as sleepers.
• Sleepers used to be players that no one had heard of, but now it’s more about finding players with high probability or high ceiling.
• The hosts aim to bring attention to players they believe have great upside as breakouts.
• Sleepers should not be obvious choices and should have some questions or uncertainties surrounding them.
• The hosts reference Miles Sanders as a successful sleeper pick from a previous year.

Lack of Draft Capital 05:15

• The hosts address the impact of a team’s lack of draft capital investment on a player’s long-term value.
• This philosophy applies to every position, not just running backs.
• Teams that haven’t invested much draft capital in a player may easily make adjustments if the player struggles in the short term.
• While there are outliers like Austin Ekeler, who was an undrafted free agent, most players are affected by their team’s draft investment.
• Even if a player performs exceptionally, there’s no guarantee they will get another opportunity if they struggle or get replaced.

The Leash for Mistakes 08:09

• The hosts explain that the leash is longer for mistakes made by players drafted in higher rounds.
• This applies to all positions, including wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
• The commitment to players drafted in later rounds is not as strong, and an injury or poor performance can quickly lead to being replaced.
• Brock Purdy‘s performance has not yet reached a level where he is immune to being replaced if he struggles or gets injured.
• While there are exceptions like Tom Brady, it’s rare for late-round quarterbacks to start many games in the NFL.

49ers’ Quarterback Situation 09:41

• The 49ers made a non-traditional move by being confident in their last pick of the draft, Brock Purdy, as a starter.
• There is concern about the injury and the possibility that Purdy may be sat down, allowing Sam Darnold to start.
• Reports suggest that Darnold is the front runner for the number two quarterback job, while Trey Lance would be the third option.
• If Lance doesn’t start a game this year, it would be considered a massive disaster for the 49ers.
• The decision to start Purdy and trade up to the third pick in the draft for Lance has raised eyebrows and may have been a mistake.
• It is unfair to compare Purdy’s situation with Lance’s, as they are both outliers in terms of quarterback decisions.
• The 49ers have a successful track record, which may have saved the people in charge despite the questionable quarterback situation.

Rams’ Signing of Sony Michel 12:59

• The Rams made a big signing by bringing in Sony Michel.
• This move potentially impacts players like Zach Evans and Kyron Williams, as it suggests they haven’t performed well enough to secure the starting role.
• Sony Michel adds depth to the team and there is uncertainty about whether he will make the final roster.

Dalvin Cook Rumors 14:12

• There are rumors that Dalvin Cook may be interested in joining the New York Jets, as he has retweeted several tweets related to the team.
• It is uncertain whether the Jets want Cook, and there is speculation about the potential impact on the Jets’ backfield.
• The addition of Cook could potentially take away opportunities from players like Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, and Michael Carter.
• The discussion shifts to the longevity of running backs in dynasty leagues and the uncertainty surrounding their value.

Early Breakout Picks 17:02

• The hosts discuss their early breakout picks for this season, defined as players with the potential to become fantasy superstars.
• One player mentioned is Jahan Dotson, a wide receiver for the Washington Commanders, who is seen as a discounted version of Terry McLaurin.
• Dotson is considered to be a 1A or 1B option alongside McLaurin and has the potential to have a breakout season.

Breakout Candidates: Johan Dotson and Trevor Lawrence 18:22

• Johan Dotson had a strong end to the season, leading the team in targets and showcasing his potential.
• Dotson and Terry McClaren had similar target numbers, indicating a consolidation of targets in Washington’s offense.
• The quarterback play may be inconsistent, but the arrival of creative offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy could create more opportunities for Dotson.
• Dotson’s hands are highly regarded, and he is ranked ahead of his average draft position in terms of fantasy finish.
• Trevor Lawrence had a tough rookie season but showed promise towards the end.
• With the arrival of new head coach Doug Peterson, the Jaguars’ offense looks to be on the rise.
• Lawrence has the potential to throw for 40 touchdowns and 4500 yards, and his ability to scramble adds to his value.
• Facing defenses like the Titans and Texans in the AFC South gives Lawrence a favorable schedule.

“I think Johan Dotson is a perfect second-year breakout candidate.” 20:28

“I expect Trevor Lawrence to be the next guy to go up into the tier of what Herbert was, what Joe Burrow did last year.” 26:04

Chris Olave Outlook 27:55

• Chris Olave, the second-year wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints, is being considered as a breakout candidate.
• Olave’s ADP (average draft position) already reflects the expectation of a breakout season.
• He is currently ranked as the WR12 on Underdog and the WR13 on Sleeper, which are reasonable rankings.
• Olave had a strong rookie season, scoring just 12 fantasy points fewer than Garrett Wilson and averaging more points per game.
• He had the 16th most receiving yards by a rookie wide receiver since 2000, achieving this milestone in just 15 games.
• Olave’s ability to stretch the field is evident in his targets per route run and yards per route run, where he ranks highly among rookie wide receivers since 2014.
• The success of Olave will depend on how well Derek Carr, the new quarterback for the Saints, can integrate him into the offense.

Derek Carr‘s Impact 29:42

• Derek Carr has a track record of elevating the fantasy production of talented pass-catchers.
• In the past four seasons, Carr has had strong fantasy seasons with players like DeVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller.
• Carr’s presence as the Saints’ quarterback is likely to benefit all their pass-catchers, including Olave.
• While Carr may not be the ultimate solution for the Saints’ success, he provides a better situation for their receivers compared to previous seasons.

Importance of Chris Olave 31:11

• Chris Olave has the potential to become an elite player in fantasy football.
• His performance as a rookie, combined with the expected breakout in his second year, could elevate him to the status of Jefferson and Chase.
• Olave’s consistent target share from the beginning of his rookie season indicates his value in the offense.
• Despite facing inconsistency at the quarterback position and dealing with injuries, Olave had a strong finish to the year.
• If not for these obstacles, he would have been in competition for offensive rookie of the year.

Jaylen Warren Sleeper Pick 34:45

• Jalen Warren, the running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is a sleeper candidate.
• Despite playing behind Najee Harris, Warren has shown his talent, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
• Warren had the same yards after contact per attempt as Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne.
• He forced 29 missed tackles, demonstrating his elusiveness.
• Recent reports suggest that Warren will have a bigger role in the offense this season, particularly on third downs.
• This could impact Najee Harris‘ involvement in the passing game, as Warren’s reception pace was better than Harris’s in the latter part of the previous season.
• Comparisons can be drawn to the Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler situation, where a talented backup gets more involved in the offense.

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Austin Ekeler and Jaylen Warren Comparison 37:55

• The speaker mentions that Jalen Warren, a player they watched, reminds them of Austin Eckler.
• They note that Warren is compact and fast, similar to Eckler in terms of playing style.
• Warren is described as someone who could have a bigger opportunity than people think, especially if he is involved as a scat back.
• It is mentioned that Warren could be a flex option or even an insurance option in case something happens to Najee Harris.

“He reminds me of Austin Eckler” 37:55

Greg Dulcich as a Sleeper Tight End 40:01

• The speaker introduces Greg Dolcich as their sleeper candidate at the tight end position.
• They mention that Dolcich played 10 games as a rookie, with 6 of those games finishing as a tight end one.
• This is considered impressive for a rookie tight end.
• The speaker explains their usual preference to avoid rookie tight ends but recognizes Dolcich’s potential.
• They point out that Dolcich missed the first five weeks of the season due to injury but still performed well.
• The speaker highlights the positive comments made by Sean Payton about Dolcich, including his speed and ball skills.
• They mention that in Payton’s system, the Joker role is usually given to a running back or tight end for mismatches.
• The speaker believes that with Payton’s coaching and Dolcich’s athleticism, he has the potential to break out into a new tier of tight ends.
• They emphasize that Dolcich is likely to go undrafted in most leagues, making him a low-risk/high-reward option.

“I have a Google alert set up for Greg Dolcich… I see him as my Joker.” 43:12

• The speaker points out that tight ends see a significant number of targets from Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense.
• They mention that tight ends were targeted 25% of the time by the Broncos last year.
• With the addition of Sean Payton as the Broncos’ new head coach, the speaker believes Dolcich will have even more opportunities to shine.

“[Payton] sees [Dolcich] as his Joker.” 43:12

• The speaker concludes by highlighting Dolcich’s potential and the fact that even if he doesn’t succeed, he won’t be disappointing as a late-round pick.

Benny Snell‘s Enthusiasm and Sleeper Candidate 39:22

• The speaker recalls Benny Snell‘s enthusiasm during interviews and his unique mouth guard, which had a whistle-like feature.
• They mention that Snell is no longer a viable option, but they introduce their next sleeper candidate.
• The speaker reveals that their sleeper pick is Adam Troutman from the Denver Broncos, who is a backup tight end.
• They acknowledge that their choice may be controversial but express confidence in Troutman’s potential.

“He’s doing his best.” 39:22

“This was a surprise to me… I certainly like the pick.” 40:09

“This is a rare episode where we’re agreeing a little too much.” 40:13

Van Jefferson‘s potential breakout 46:33

• All three hosts agree on Van Jefferson‘s potential breakout in 2023.
• Despite Jason’s low ranking of Van Jefferson, he still has a higher ADP.
• Van Jefferson, the Los Angeles Rams wide receiver, had a solid second year with 50 receptions, 800 yards, and six touchdowns.
• Last year, Jefferson missed the preseason due to a knee injury and was never able to fully recover.
• However, when he became a full-time player from Week 13 onwards, he showed promise, averaging 18 yards per catch.
• With Matthew Stafford as the quarterback, who has supported multiple wide receivers for fantasy in the past, there is potential for Jefferson to have a breakout season.
• Jefferson is currently being drafted in the 60s, making him a late-round sleeper pick.

“I think that your point about him not being some kind of giant breakout is important. He could be a spot starter.” 49:31

“Van Jefferson was the wide receiver 34 that year, so a guy who has already shown with this quarterback, with this team, he could be a top 36 wide receiver.” 49:48

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Late-round tight ends in best ball drafts 50:45

• In best ball leagues, if you miss out on an elite tight end early, it’s common to end up with a three tight end build.
• Three tight end builds had the highest playoff advanced rate compared to two or four tight end builds last year.
• There are several tight ends going past pick 100 who could surprise with touchdowns and have impactful games.
• One of the tight ends targeted is Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Tennessee Titans, who currently has an ADP of tight end 12 on underdog.
• Another option is David Njoku, who has a chance to shine in the Houston Texans‘ passing game if the offense improves.
• Greg Dulcich is a deeper sleeper option and is currently being drafted at 140.
• Tyler Higbee is also worth considering as a late-round tight end in best ball drafts.

“My preference is getting three late tight ends. When you look at the ADPs above 150, there are plenty of tight ends that will make an impact.” 52:49

Tyler Higbee as a Sleeper 55:39

• Tyler Higbee is a sleeper tight end option for fantasy football.
• He had over 100 targets last year, but didn’t score any touchdowns.
• This was due to Matthew Stafford not being the quarterback for the team.
• Higbee was the number two target behind Van Jefferson.
• With Alan Robinson gone, Higbee will have more opportunities.
• He will be a volume play and is being drafted late.
• He is similar to Dalton Schultz, another sleeper tight end option.

“I like honestly he is very similar to the way I look at Dalton Schultz which is you don’t want to draft either guy and you probably are dumb if you don’t because they’re going to be parts of the they’re going to be focal points of these offenses.” 56:22

“high volume targets give me Matthew Stafford his quarterback her Dalton Schultz his name brought up but this was a free agent Titan that has performed at the NFL level who will get plenty of targets in Houston he is like Austin Hooper to me.” 56:46

Taysom Hill as a Late-round Pick 57:17

• Taysom Hill is being undervalued in drafts, going as the Titan 21.
• New Orleans plans to use him in a similar role as last year.
• In season-long formats, there is a risk of getting a zero if he performs poorly.
• However, in best ball leagues, Hill’s rushing ability can provide big scores.
• He will still be involved, despite some thinking he’ll be less involved with Derek Carr on the team.
• The starting running back for the Saints may be suspended, giving Hill more opportunities.

“Him going that late to me and I’m anti Taysom Hill I don’t I don’t understand what the draft community is doing.” 58:10

“I mean I don’t have much Taysom Hill and I’m writing down like draft Taysom Hill he’s going 171 like why is he there.” 58:39

“What he did last year is probably going to happen again at least maybe not as great of 575 and seven on the ground but even if you get 505 on the ground for a player who’s the tight end 21 you should be drafting that player.” 59:24