AFC South Breakdown + Broken Promises

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Trevor Lawrence breakout in 2023? AFC South preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Do Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry still have upside to be the RB1? Who from the Texans can be relevant for fantasy football teams? Plus, the best spots to pick from in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for July 11th, 2023.

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AFC South Breakdown 04:19

  • The hosts discuss their recent encounters with bears while up north in Arizona, highlighting the unexpected reappearance of bears in their area.
  • They jokingly suggest that this bear activity could serve as an omen for the Chicago Bears in the upcoming season.
  • The hosts reflect on their increased apprehension due to the bear issues and discuss the precautions they are taking, like carrying bear spray.

“I have never carried bear spray around on me as much as I did this weekend.”

Javonte Williams‘ Injury Status 10:53

  • Chase was hurt last year, while Javonte Williams had 87 yards with injury. 09:37
  • There is a positive report about Javonte Williams being cleared for training camp. 11:00
  • This impacts his ADP and where he will go in drafts. 11:19
  • The risk lies in the chance of him injuring something else in his lower body due to his previous knee injury. 12:54

“That’s a huge red flag for Javonte Williams.”

  • The news surrounding players returning from injury is generally positive, but it’s important to consider the severity of the injury. 13:10
  • If Javonte Williams is able to play in week one, it would be a pleasant surprise. 14:16

Evaluating Javonte Williams‘ Risk 13:00

  • Javonte Williams‘ injury was more egregious than other players like Breece Hall. 15:10
  • The best odds in fantasy are to bet against a player coming off such a devastating knee injury. 15:47
  • Despite positive reports, the risk associated with his injury makes him a risky pick. 15:56

“So the upside represents a lot more than where his ADP is.”

“I find that the best odds is to bet against a guy off of the injury Javonte has.”

AFC South Breakdown 17:22

  • This is the second divisional breakdown episode of the year, discussing offseason changes between 2022 and 23 and how these offenses could function today. 17:29

Jacksonville Jaguars 18:38

  • The AFC South was a weak division last year, with teams struggling outside of the division. 18:51
  • Wide receiver fantasy points were lacking in the division, with Jacksonville having the eighth most and Tennessee having the fewest. 19:42

“Last year, this was one of the worst.” “Fantasy points wise, this is worth noting.”

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 Trevor Lawrence 20:30

  • The Jaguars finished last season strong, going 8-3 in their final 11 games. 20:43
  • Quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be key to the team’s success this year, and if he performs well, the division could be theirs. 21:15
  • Lawrence has a lot of weapons around him, including Calvin Ridley23:34

“They finished the year eight and three in their final 11 games.” “The improvement is going to come from T-Law.”

Travis Etienne‘s Role 23:55

  • There is uncertainty about how running back Travis Etienne will be utilized in the passing game, as Lawrence had a low percentage of targets to running backs last year. 24:18
  • The addition of Tank Bigsby may limit Etienne’s targets. 24:54

“Can this Clemson duo be the source of improvement for Travis Etienne?” “I think that the downside is there as well.”

James Robinson Situation 25:09

  • James Robinson was heavily involved earlier in the season but was eventually benched and traded away. 25:20
  • This adds some uncertainty to the Jaguars’ running back situation. 25:09

“The Jaguars were really working James Robinson in.” “He didn’t necessarily look fantastic on the field.”

AFC South Breakdown 25:26

“But Travis Etn took over there.”

  • James Robinson was initially a significant part of the team’s plans, which resulted in Etn receiving the majority of the work.

“They didn’t have another plan because James Robinson was so much in their plans that Etn was getting the bulk of the work.”

  • Tank Bigsby is a potential threat to create a committee in the backfield.

“But I think that Tank, Bigsby is a threat to put this into far more of a committee.”

  • Doug Peterson’s coaching style suggests a preference for having a committee of running backs.

“It’s seemingly the way that Doug Peterson has done things that that’s what Doug Peterson would prefer.”

  • Etn’s target share may not increase due to the committee approach.

“So that’s why I think that your, I don’t know that the targets are going to go up for Travis Etn.”

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  • Bigsby might take more work away from Etn in the second half of the season compared to earlier.

“Meanwhile, I believe that Tank, Bigsby will take away more work from Etn than over the second half.”

  • Etn’s ranking might drop due to the potential committee situation.

“Not that Etn will be terrible for fantasy at all, but you know, just rankings wise, our consensus has him six spots below where he’s currently in.”

  • Etn is being drafted as the RB13, but the consensus ranking places him at RB19.

“He’s being drafted as the running back 13. Our consensus has him at 19.”

  • DeArnest Johnson and Michael Hasty are other running backs involved in the committee.

“You didn’t mention DeArnest Johnson either.” / “Michael Hasty was involved last year.”

  • Tank Bigsby‘s addition adds to the committee situation.

“Yeah, Hasty was involved. They added DeArnest Johnson and then obviously spent a pretty high draft pick on Tank.”

“That’s why I was focused on Tank.”

  • Etn’s snap percentage was exceptionally high in previous games, but it might decrease due to the committee approach.

“Yeah. And if you look at the game log for Etn last year, there was a stretch when they realized, oh, James Robinson‘s toast and he was gone. That he’s playing 80%, 79%, 81%, 78%, 88%, 75%. These are numbers that very few running backs in the league are on the field for that snap percentage. And when they come out and say, we want to get more backs involved so we can keep Etn healthy and then they go and do it. He’s not playing that percentage of snaps.”

  • Despite reduced snap percentages, Etn’s explosiveness makes him a valuable fantasy pick.

“Now he’s super explosive. So when you get a young explosive guy on a good offense that projects for nine and a half wins, I’m fine with the draft pick.”

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  • Etn’s role in the offense might be shared with other running backs.

“But I don’t see him having this show to himself.” “Well, one of the problems is he only had one touchdown over the last eight weeks of the season.” “So it made sense that they were going to ease him into the offense.” “All good points that you guys are making.”

Derrick Henry‘s Potential as RB1 33:43

  • Derrick Henry had a near 2000 total yard season, with over 1500 yards on the ground and nearly 400 receiving yards. He could still end the year as the wide receiver or the running back one.

“And the fact that they started getting him involved in the passing game… Derek Henry is great… Except what if he does catch the ball because he did last year?”

  • Last year, Derrick Henry was more involved in the passing game, with 33 receptions. However, it could have been due to the lack of other receiving options on the team.
  • The Titans had injuries and lacked depth in their wide receiver room, with players like Traylon Burks, Kyle Phillips, and Chris Moren.

“Now, some of that could have been the fact that they had absolutely no one else to throw the ball to.”

Value in Treylon Burks 35:36

  • Treylon Burks is a promising wide receiver option for the Titans, and he could be worth a shot in fantasy. If he, Henry, and Tannehill can get enough done, it could be a fantasy goldmine.

“If it succeeds, it will be those three. And if that happens, that’s fantasy gold.”

Potential for Chigoziem Okonkwo 36:08

  • Chigoziem Okonkwo, a tight end, could have an opportunity to break into the Titans’ offense. He has shown athleticism and had success in terms of yardage and targets per route run.

“He led all tight ends in yards per route run, second in targets per route run. I love him.”

Fragility of the Titans’ Offense 37:08

  • The Titans’ offense is fragile, where if one part breaks, the whole team suffers. Losing players like Tannehill, Henry, or Burks could significantly impact the team’s performance.

“It’s tough to put a lot of eggs in the 28th ranked point per game offense from last year. And it is a machine that if you lose one part, the whole machine is going to break that, that go kart is going to crumble.”

Colts’ Projected Win Total 38:25

  • The Colts had a disappointing season last year with a 4-12 record. This year, they are projected to have a win total of six and a half.

“I think it’s like six or seven. So I think it’s a good line.”

New Head Coach for the Colts 39:55

  • The Colts have a new head coach, Shane Steikin, who was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles. With a first-time head coach and an inexperienced rookie quarterback, the Colts’ offense may be raw.

“I leaned towards the under with a first-time head coach and a very inexperienced and raw quarterback as a rookie who I think will start the vast majority of games.”

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Excitement for Anthony Richardson 40:58

  • Anthony Richardson, the Colts’ rookie quarterback, has the potential to be a cheat code in fantasy due to his rushing ability. If he gets significant playing time, he could provide valuable fantasy points.

“If Anthony Richardson starting, I will be shocked that he’s not above 4.7 carries a game… That’s like hiding in plain sight.”

Underestimating Anthony Richardson 41:23

  • Drafting options like Anthony Richardson may provide comfort since even if he’s not the starter, he will be used in goal-line packages and can still contribute points in fantasy.

“They’re going to work him into those games where he’s not the starter. So you can have some fantasy points.”


“Don’t underestimate that. That’s 4.7 carries a game. If Anthony Richardson starting, I will be shocked that he’s not above 4.7 carries a game.”

Jonathan Taylor‘s Fantasy Outlook 41:56

  • Jonathan Taylor may not have a standout season as the Colts’ offense is not impressive 41:50.
  • Losing reliable pass catcher Paris Campbell further weakens the offense 42:05.
  • The ancillary pieces like Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie don’t excite 42:17.
  • Anthony Richardson, though talented, may have a slow start as a rookie quarterback 42:21.
  • Josh Allen‘s rookie season illustrates the potential for a slow start and strong finish for Richardson 42:35.
  • Richardson’s presence hurts Taylor’s fantasy potential as rushing opportunities could be vultured 42:47.
  • The Colts’ quarterback situation means fewer dump-offs for Taylor 43:00.

“It’s not going to be the running back one because you’re going to have rushes vultured… So that hurts.” 43:04


“Those [dump-off passes] will not be flowing for Jonathan Taylor.” 47:37

Michael Pittman‘s Future with the Colts 43:36

  • Pittman’s market value may be affected by the Colts’ youth movement and investment in other receivers 43:46.
  • The Colts might prioritize retaining Jonathan Taylor over Pittman 44:00.
  • Pittman’s importance to the offense may prevent the Colts from letting him go 44:10.
  • The Colts’ lack of wide receiver depth also makes it unlikely they would let Pittman walk 44:15.

“I think they have to [keep Pittman].” 43:56

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“They don’t have the wide receiver core beyond Pittman… to let Pittman go.” 44:10

Evaluating Jonathan Taylor‘s Fantasy Potential 46:15

  • Despite a successful rookie season, Taylor’s situation this year is not ideal 46:27.
  • The Colts’ overall team strength and potential quarterback rotation raise concerns 47:09.
  • The presence of a mobile quarterback like Anthony Richardson diminishes Taylor’s receiving opportunities 47:28.
  • Goal-line carries could also be reduced in a struggling offense 47:41.
  • Taylor’s talent is not in question, but his situation needs to be considered when evaluating his fantasy potential 48:07.

“But there’s just so many things stacked against [Taylor].” 47:09

“I’m not concerned at all with Jonathan Taylor‘s ability, but his situation is not great.” 48:07

Recap of Houston Texans Offseason 49:24

“To me there’s a lot of addition this offseason that I like with Houston.”

Factors that Determine the Colts and Texans’ Performance 49:45

  • The performance of the Texans and Colts, especially in their matchups against each other, will likely determine whether they go over or under in terms of their win totals. 49:49
  • The addition of Will Anderson on defense and the performance of the rookie quarterbacks will be significant factors for the Texans. 49:49
  • The writer believes the Colts will likely win the matchups against the Texans. 50:10

“You know what’s funny is whether or not this team or the Colts team is going to go over or under, probably will be dictated by who wins the series of those two games.”

Analysis of Dameon Pierce‘s Performance and Fantasy Value 50:22

  • Damian Pierce had a strong rookie season but had some problems and inefficiencies despite playing behind an expensive and potentially good offensive line. 50:25
  • The Texans brought in Devin Singletary, indicating they are not heavily invested in Pierce. 50:50
  • The writer is out on Damian Pierce due to uncertainties surrounding his role in the new offensive regime. 51:10
  • However, he acknowledges that there is an argument to be made on both sides. 51:18

“I find myself pretty much out on Damian Pierce, even though I loved the film last year.”

Factors Affecting Dameon Pierce‘s Fantasy Value 51:28

  • The writer believes Damian Pierce needs an overwhelming amount of volume to succeed, and it is unclear if he will receive that. 53:40
  • The uncertainty surrounding the team’s improvement, rookie quarterback performance, and the potential running-back-by-committee approach also add to the question marks. 52:22

“And I do want to say, yes, they’re spending a ton of money on their offensive line. No, it wasn’t good last year.”

Value of Other Underrated Players on the Texans 54:45

  • The writer highlights underrated players on the Texans, including wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz54:55
  • They believe Collins has sneaky value and thinks it’s wild that he is not being considered in any drafts. 54:55
  • The writer also mentions other potential options like wide receivers Jonathan Mingo and Adam Thielen55:13

Nico Collins, which in so far in practices is by far the number one target. I think he has some sneaky value.”

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Limitations of Rookie Quarterbacks and Their Impact on Fantasy Value 55:52

  • The writer emphasizes that rookie quarterbacks often struggle to support a top 36 wide receiver in fantasy, making the Texans’ wide receivers long shots. 56:04
  • While the writer acknowledges C.J. Stroud‘s talent, he suggests that the odds are against him being a reliable fantasy starter. 56:07

“Don’t carry a good fantasy starter, let alone like a top 36 option. Most of the time.”

Rookie QBs and Top 36 Wide Receivers 56:24

  • Approximately 70% of rookie quarterbacks who start in week one do not have a top 36 wide receiver.
  • This means that only around 30% of rookie quarterbacks are able to find success with a relevant wide receiver.
  • The successful quarterbacks are not the likes of Nico Collins and Robert Woods, but those who receive a massive amount of volume, such as Keenan Allen.
  • For a receiver like Nico Collins to have a chance at breaking into the top 30, he would need a target share of at least 25%.

“70% of rookie quarterbacks who start in week one don’t have a top 36 wide receiver, so you’re already talking about a 30% outlier.”

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