AFC North Breakdown + TD Scorers
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Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns! On today’s fantasy football podcast a 2023 preview for the AFC North division! Which players are the biggest values in fantasy football drafts? Plus, a new edition of Best Ball Breakdown! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for July 6th, 2023.
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Focus on AFC North Breakdown 02:22
- The hosts mention that the AFC North breakdown indicates that football season is approaching.
- The breakdown promises in-depth analysis of the division and its teams.
“This is how you know that football is around the corner. When the divisional series hits on the fantasy footballers, you know you’re going to get good, hard hitting, deep analysis of these divisions and all these teams.”
Recap of Previous Episode 03:12
- The hosts reference the positive feedback received for the previous AFC North breakdown episode.
“AFC North today got such good feedback.”
Announcement of Future Episodes 03:46
- The hosts mention that future episodes will include more mock drafts, the Dynasty Podcast with top 10 wide receiver rankings, and discussions about a recent big Dynasty trade made by Mike.
“We’ll probably do quite a few mock drafts over the next month as we get things going. This week on the Dynasty Podcast, which released yesterday, the top 10 wide receiver rankings. And Mike made a big Dynasty trade.”
Recommendation of Ultimate Draft Kit 04:42
- The hosts emphasize the availability and usefulness of the Ultimate Draft Kit, which includes tier-based rankings, staff projections, player profile videos, custom cheat sheets, and various tools.
“So what’s the Ultimate Draft Kit? It is the singular resource that you can use to prepare for your drafts.”
News and Notes 06:00
- The hosts transition to discussing news and notes from around the league.
“Let’s talk news. News and notes from around the league.”
Foster Moreau‘s Remission from Hodgkins Lymphoma 06:11
- Foster Moreau, previously with the Raiders and now with the Saints, announces his full remission from Hodgkins Lymphoma, which is great news.
“Saints tied in Foster Moreau, formerly of the Raiders, signed a contract this off season. He has announced that he is in full remission from Hodgkins Lymphoma.”
Taysom Hill‘s Hope for Increased Receptions 06:44
- Taysom Hill expresses his desire for an expanded role with more receptions, potentially affecting the target distribution among tight ends such as John Johnson and Foster Moreau.
“Another bit of news that Taysum Hill hopes his role evolves into more receptions.”
Discussion on John Johnson and Foster Moreau 07:05
- The hosts discuss the fantasy implications of the tight end situation involving John Johnson and Foster Moreau. They anticipate a shared workload, making both tight ends less relevant for fantasy purposes.
“So they will share that workload. Unfortunately, that means for fantasy, I think both will be mostly irrelevant.”
- Kevin O’Connell praises KJ Osborne, a wide receiver for the Vikings, highlighting his standout performances during offseason practices and leadership qualities.
- The hosts deliberate on whether KJ Osborne could be a sleeper or have sleeper relevance in fantasy football.
“KJ Osborne had some very, very big games last year. Head coach saying he’s a real standout during offseason practices also as a leader on the field.”
- The hosts express skepticism regarding KJ Osborne’s potential breakout year and suggest that the first-round rookie pick, Jordan Addison, is more likely to be the primary second wide receiver for the Vikings.
Terrace Marshall Jr. Mentioned 09:56
- The hosts briefly mention Terez Marshall Jr., although it’s unclear why his name is brought up.
“Teres Marshall Jr. I don’t know why I bring him up.”
End of Recap and Transition 09:55
- The hosts conclude the news segment, mentioning that the Dynasty show was released the previous day and transitions to the AFC North breakdown discussion.
“So what I’m saying is like maybe the first three or four weeks of the year, you’ve got a player you could play in KJ Osborne.”
Rookie Wide Receiver Hype 13:06
- Romeo Dobbs is discussed as a rookie wide receiver who is generating hype.
- The hosts mention his good performances last year and the possibility of him being the number one target this season.
- They acknowledge that Christian Watson is considered more explosive.
- The hosts question the quarterback’s ability to support Dobbs and also mention other rookie wide receivers generating buzz.
“Romeo Dobbs is getting hype, with rumors suggesting he could be the number one target. However, Christian Watson is considered more explosive.”
Skyy Moore Hype 14:09
- Skymore, a player with potential who didn’t have many opportunities last year, is discussed.
- The hosts mention Andy Reid’s positive comments about Skymore’s performance in training camp and the possibility of him taking a step forward this season.
- They caution that this may just be offseason hype and urge listeners to monitor the situation.
“Skymore is getting love from Andy Reid after showing promise in training camp, but it could be just offseason hype.”
Best Division in the NFL? 16:37
- The hosts discuss the AFC North as one of the best divisions in the NFL.
- They highlight the strong quarterback play in the division with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Deshaun Watson.
- The hosts express skepticism about the Steelers’ chances due to their quarterback situation.
AFC North Breakdown 17:45
- The Cincinnati Bengals had a successful year, ending the season on an eight-game winning streak 17:45
“It was another great year for the Bengals, and they have such consistency on offense.”
Fantasy Value at Tight End for the Bengals 18:14
- The Bengals have some question marks at the tight end position 18:14
- There were intermittent fantasy value opportunities at tight end in the past with CJ Uzomah and Hayden Hurst 18:22
- The addition of Irv Smith brings further uncertainty 18:09
- It’s unclear whether there will be enough targets to go around with the high concentration on Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase 18:54
“The question is, could you find fantasy value at the tight end position this year?”
Joe Burrow‘s Performance and Expectations 19:48
- Joe Burrow has shown promise as a quarterback, with 34 touchdowns two years ago and 35 touchdowns last year 19:48
- Burrow took control of the team and increased his passing attempts, indicating a pass-first offensive approach 20:16
- Burrow’s weapons, including Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins, provide a strong foundation for fantasy success 21:01
“You want a quarterback like Joe Burrow, someone that can throw 35 plus touchdowns to really pay off on the fantasy value.”
Backup Running Back Situation for the Bengals 21:51
- There is uncertainty around the Bengals’ backup running back situation 21:51
- Traveon Williams has not made a significant impact in his career 22:20
- The addition of rookie Chris Evans and Joe Mixon‘s potential return add further unpredictability 22:06
“Someone here matters, and they’ve talked up Trayveon Williams, but I am personally ignoring that.”
- Joe Mixon‘s potential return and the lack of effort to secure someone else indicate a high likelihood of him being the lead running back 23:56
- Mixon’s involvement in the passing game adds to his value 24:14
- However, there is still some risk due to the resolution not being finalized 25:09
“Your odds of Joe Mixon hitting in fantasy are going to be very high.”
Backup Running Backs and Depth Chart 24:45
- The Bengals’ backup running backs have little experience or draft capital 24:45
- The situation is similar to teams with unknown backups like the Cardinals last year 24:58
“You want a dude and then just complete unknowns that have done nothing in the NFL and have no draft capital or investment there.”
“There are a lot of backup running back situations that don’t play out like some of your here on and they play out like Arizona last year where it’s James Conner.”
AFC North Breakdown – Cincinnati Bengals 25:46
“And then it’s just OK here, Corey Clement gets some carries, Kianta Ingram gets some carries.”
AFC North Breakdown – Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Boyd 26:12
- Tyler Boyd is in a contract year for the Bengals.
- Charlie Jones has been added to the Bengals’ roster.
AFC North Breakdown – Cincinnati Bengals – Schedule 26:34
- The Bengals’ first four matchups are against Cleveland and Baltimore, which are divisional matchups.
- The season starts with a road game in Cleveland.
“And their first four matchups, Cleveland, Baltimore. So two divisional matchups start the year, including on the road in Cleveland.”
AFC North Breakdown – Baltimore Ravens – Overview 26:55
- The Baltimore Ravens had many unknowns at the beginning of the offseason.
- Last year, their preseason win total was 9.5, and they ended up going 10-7.
- They had Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown starting games at quarterback towards the end of the season.
“This team had so much unknown to begin the offseason… Last year, the preseason win total was 9.5. They went 10 and 7… They finished the year with Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown starting games of quarterback.”
AFC North Breakdown – Baltimore Ravens – Lamar Jackson 27:34
- Lamar Jackson is back with the Ravens on a 5-year, 190 million guaranteed contract.
- He is ranked at number 5 in the consensus rankings, but some analysts have him at number 3.
- Taking a risk on Lamar Jackson in fantasy football drafts is a debated topic due to his past performance.
“Lamar’s back. 5-year, 190 guaranteed… He’s ranked at 5 when you look at our consensus rankings… I do think it is very risky with the last couple of years.”
AFC North Breakdown – Baltimore Ravens – Wide Receivers 28:23
- The wide receiver room for the Ravens looks better with names like Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers.
- Rashod Bateman has shown potential but has also dealt with injuries.
- Odell Beckham Jr. has joined the team, and there is excitement about his performance in training camp.
“Because I know we’ve talked about, hey, we’re kind of excited about Zay Flowers, but that’s a rookie… So here’s what has happened… Rashad Bateman has had many flashes, but many MA&Y injuries… And then you have Odell Beckham with the big contract… And then there’s been video… I don’t know if you’ve seen that of Beckham and looking like Vintage Beckham in camp.”
AFC North Breakdown – Baltimore Ravens – Offense 29:40
- The Ravens’ new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, brings a pass-heavy approach.
- Monken’s offense will be faster and aims to have more passing attempts.
- Lamar Jackson‘s rushing ability will still be utilized.
“We have Todd Monkin, who’s coming in… We’re going to have a pass-heavy approach… That’s huge because we want more points coming through the air for Lamar Jackson… More passing attempts.”
AFC North Breakdown – Baltimore Ravens – Lamar Jackson‘s Fantasy Potential 31:41
- Lamar Jackson has the potential to finish as the number one fantasy quarterback.
- He scores a lot of fantasy points on a per-touch basis.
- However, there are concerns about his consistency and turnovers.
“You want a guy who can finish as the number one quarterback and Lamar Jackson absolutely can… On a per-touch basis, he scores a ton of fantasy points… However, the performance on the field hasn’t been… He’s still made mistakes… He’s a DNR consistency… he’s been 10, 15 and 14 the last three years.”
Offensive Pace of Play 33:15
- The pace of play is considered the most important thing on the offensive side of the game.
- The AFC North has historically been known for slow and sluggish offenses.
“this has been a team that has run one of the slowest sluggish offices.”
The Ravens’ Offensive Options 34:02
- Lamar Jackson had a successful fantasy season when he had Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown as his options.
- While the new options like Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Zay Flowers have potential, their effectiveness is still uncertain.
- Despite the uncertainty, these new options are still an upgrade from last year’s options.
“But what we do know is that those options are way better than what he has dealt with recently, especially last year.”
Lamar Jackson‘s Fantasy Value 34:28
- Lamar Jackson, being young and talented, is expected to play the entire season and maintain his fast style of play.
- He may have a higher turnover rate in this new offense, but that has been successful for fantasy under this coordinator in the past.
- The risk of injury and past disappointments should be taken into account, but overall, Lamar Jackson is primed for a good fantasy season.
“when I’m trying to play fantasy, he’s going to play this entire season, age 26.”
Ravens’ Efficiency and Pace of Play 35:12
- The Ravens need to balance both efficiency and a fast pace of play to be successful.
- Playing fast does not necessarily guarantee a good team or fantasy performance.
- Other teams with high pace of play last year, like the Chargers and the Buccaneers, did not produce consistent fantasy quarterback champions.
“But, you know, just because you play fast doesn’t mean you’re a good team.”
Distribution of Targets 37:30
- The distribution of targets in the Ravens’ offense may be difficult to predict.
- While Mark Andrews is expected to be good, other players like Isaiah Likely and Nelson Agholor could demand targets as well.
- For fantasy purposes, it is best to trust Lamar Jackson to put up numbers regardless of who he is throwing to.
“You’re just trusting Lamar to put up numbers with whomever he’s given.”
Selecting Ravens Players in Fantasy 36:33
- Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson are the two players in the Ravens’ offense that fantasy managers should target.
- It is uncertain whether players like Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, or Zay Flowers will have a major impact.
- The brutal AFC North division further adds to the unpredictability of success for these players.
“I’m in on the Ravens in general, but that doesn’t mean I’m in on every single player.”
JK Dobbins as the Key Player for Ravens Offense 40:37
- JK Dobbins is expected to be the main focus of the Ravens’ offense.
- The team is transitioning to a new offensive philosophy.
- Dobbins is a running back who excels in goal-line situations.
- He does not catch passes, which may limit his fantasy value for some.
- Some may view Dobbins as a potential victim of touchdown vulturing.
“I think you are trusting the offense to just provide opportunities throughout the year.”
“So I get it if you want to be out on JK Dobbins.”
Bengals as the division winner 55:52
- The consensus is that the Bengals will win the division.
- The panel all agreed on this prediction.
“I’ve got the Bengals. It’s going to be the Bengals.”
Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns: order of final three 55:59
- The order of the final three teams in the division is Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns.
“I go Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns.”
Nick Chubb‘s potential for more passing work 53:54
- Nick Chubb has the potential to see increased passing work this season.
- The panel believes that if Chubb gets more involved as a pass-catcher, he could finish as a top-three running back.
- They expect him to receive around 45 plus targets and potentially catch around 40 receptions.
“What is more passing work? More passing work means that he’s going to be 45 plus targets and I think it could go north of there. I think he could have 40 receptions.”
The Browns offense and potential for improvement 48:36
- The Browns offense is expected to improve this season.
- They have a proven commodity at quarterback in Deshaun Watson.
- The panel mentions the strong running back depth with a reference to “the best running back in football,” implying Nick Chubb.
- The wide receiver room is considered underrated, with potential names like Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
- There is mention of David Njoku being a sleeper tight end.
- The panel agrees that Deshaun Watson has tremendous upside.
“I think you know Deshaun Watson has a proven commodity at quarterback multiple years of success. You have an outstanding, maybe the best running back in football. You have a probably underrated wide receiver room right now, although there has been some talk about frustration that they didn’t bring in Hopkins.”
Concerns about Deshaun Watson 50:39
- There are concerns about Deshaun Watson‘s performance last year.
- He was rusty and didn’t look like a professional quarterback.
- The panel speculates on whether Watson can regain his past excellence.
- It is mentioned that Watson’s potential return to elite status is pure speculation and projection.
“This is a team that, you know, if they were hot, they were playing well, they were winning games, and then Watson came in, and you know, it just didn’t go that well… That has to be pure speculation and projection. I am on the side where I don’t believe he’s going to be an elite quarterback this season.”
Amari Cooper‘s potential in the Browns offense 52:03
- Amari Cooper is considered a solid pick at his current ADP of wide receiver 18.
- If Deshaun Watson performs well, Cooper’s value could increase.
- He is seen as potentially reaching third in end zone targets.
“I just think he’s a perfectly acceptable pick at his ADP wide receiver 18 and about the middle of the fourth right now that, that seems fine. You know, fourth in receiving touchdowns, seems like the absolute floor for Amari Cooper.”
AFC North Breakdown 56:04
- The order of teams: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers.
- Jason agrees with the order. 56:07
“I go Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers.”
Best Ball Breakdown 56:14
- Best Ball Breakdown, presented by Underdog Fantasy. 56:14
- Positive touchdown regression candidates. 56:29
- Touchdown regression is relevant for Best Ball Draft position. 56:43
- The hosts will identify some names. 56:55
“There’s a new segment every week leading up into the season looking at positive touchdown regression candidates this week.”
Diontae Johnson‘s touchdown regression 57:12
- Diontae Johnson had 147 targets and zero touchdowns. 57:12
- Mike believes he is a positive regression candidate. 57:47
- Diontae Johnson is the best player in the Steelers room. 57:51
- Mike expects Johnson to have a bounce back season in Best Ball. 58:13
“Diontae Johnson‘s 147 targets and zero touchdowns…He needs one. …in Best Ball, it’s a format that lives and dies with touchdowns. You can swing for the fences on some of these guys to bounce back to where you want them to be.”
DK Metcalf‘s touchdown regression 58:20
- Jason believes DK Metcalf is a positive regression candidate. 58:20
- Metcalf had an anomalous year with only six touchdowns. 58:35
- Metcalf had the most end zone targets in the league. 58:50
- Jason expects Metcalf to return to a higher touchdown total. 59:55
“I have a feeling we’re going to hear from the positive regression crew on Twitter…this is just another bullet point into that effect, the fact that he only got in the end zone two times…and then that thing can swing the other direction.”
Rhamondre Stevenson‘s touchdown regression 01:01:33
- Mike is betting on positive regression for Rhamondre Stevenson. 01:01:33
- Stevenson had 12 carries inside the five but only turned into two touchdowns. 01:01:36
- Stevenson’s underperformance in rushing and receiving yards should improve. 01:02:02
- Mike sees the potential for Stevenson to be a difference maker at running back. 01:02:21
“We’re going with Ramondray Stevenson…He had 12 carries inside the five that only turned into two touchdowns…you’re talking about a true difference maker at the running back position.”
Dalvin Cook‘s Potential as a New England Patriot 01:03:20
“I do not stand by this analysis.”
Ramon Ray currently holds the opportunity for touchdown scoring on the Patriots. 01:03:48
“They’ve used small guys around the end zone before. So Danny Woodhead.”
The Patriots have not made any significant moves to bring in competition for Ramon Ray. 01:04:13
The longer the Patriots wait to bring in a new player, the less important that player becomes to the team. 01:04:40
“The longer you wait, the less important that player is to the team when they bring them in.”