The Fantasy Footballers’ Dynasty Christmas Wishlist for 2024
On the most recent the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Mike, Betz, and myself discussed a number of dynasty-related wishes for Christmas season. Some might be selfish and others are over-arching thoughts for dynasty managers to anticipate and hope for.
As referenced on the podcast, here are some of the notes, statistics, and charts we referenced if you want further commentary on what we discussed.
Reload Herbert’s Skill Group
It was a lost season for the Chargers in so many ways with Justin Herbert‘s season-ending finger surgery the icing on the cake. Mike Williams tore his ACL and his age (29.2) is concerning for his future outlook. Keenan Allen (31.6) might be mailing it in after setting career-highs in a number of statistical categories. Both WR mainstays are under contract for just one more year while skill position players Austin Ekeler, Jalen Guyton, and Gerald Everett are impending free agents. Los Angeles ranks 31st in available cap space ($45 million over the cap) with some big cap numbers for pass rushers and aging veterans Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. They’ll need to restructure and get creative for allocating funds and their top-10 draft pick.
Justin Herbert is universally seen as a top-6 dynasty QB but the competitive window for this team seems to have closed. Quentin Johnston doesn’t exactly strike confidence in your heart for things moving forward. The Chargers will have a new head coach and GM so wholesale changes are coming to this team. Be willing to shop Herbert this off-season based on his name value knowing it’s possible we’ve seen his best fantasy days and top-3 finishes might be out of reach.
Let Trey McBride Cook
He just turned 24 years old and is morphing into a true alpha at the position. Since Week 8, he has a 29% target share, 29% TPRR and is the TE3 in fantasy in that span. He is the Cardinals offense as Kyler Murray funneled 38% of his pass attempts since returning to the TE position. Zach Ertz‘s presence at the beginning of the season hindered some of our bullishness but it is clear McBride belongs as a foundational building block for this rebuilding Cardinals team. If they take a WR (Marvin Harrison Jr.) early in the draft, it would provide a nice 1-2 punch.
The discussion on the podcast focused on finding the appropriate place to rank McBride and the rest of the TEs in dynasty for 2024. Coming into the season, here were the top-17 TEs in terms of dynasty rankings. A lot has changed since then…
We did a quick dry run of the top-5 on the podcast debating whether Sam LaPorta belongs as the TE1 and if Trey McBride goes as high as TE2. The hardest part is projecting the future for the older guys like Travis Kelce and if Kyle Pitts even belongs in the top-10. What a world.
Falcons Make a Change for 2024
Heartbreak has been a common theme for Atlanta fans. In 2023 alone, this Falcons team played in a lot of close games… 9 of the last 10 were one score games. One that wasn’t? They beat New Orleans Saints by nine. It’s been stressful and everyone knows it. Arthur Smith was quoted on Tuesday: “We will die trying to make sure we get this right.”
The issue is the play-calling deficiencies:
- You can’t blame the Offensive Line– 5th in both PFF Pass & Run Blocking Grades
- Predictable Play-Calling- On 1st-and-10, Atlanta’s neutral pass rate is DEAD LAST… 38%.
- Why do you want to run the ball? To set up play-action passing & “shot plays” which have been few and far between.
- Turnover Problems Inside the Red Zones
This team currently holds the 10th overall pick and you might say, they need a QB to fix their offensive problem. It feels very similar to what the Lions tried to accomplish in the early 2000s. Drafting a plethora of offensive weapons fails to correct the main issue: scheme and offensive design.
After the Falcons “Big 3” of 1st rounders touched the ball on just 25% of their offensive plays this past week in their embarrassing loss to the Panthers, a change is needed and everyone and their mama is crying out for it. Owner Arthur Blank was quite cryptic Wednesday morning when asked about Arthur Smith’s future. Beyond the coaching changes, the WR room has just one player (Drake London) under contract for 2024 and picking up Kyle Pitts‘ 5th year option will be a big decision point this off-season. For dynasty purposes, the uncertainty surrounding this team allows you to try and acquire their players at 15-25% off. But it comes with risk. Sales like these don’t factor that these are sale items.
Young RBs Continue to Emerge
We’re at a point in dynasty where a lot of the RB position is aging out or is close to aging out: Ekeler, Henry, Kamara, Mixon, Chubb, Mostert, James Conner.
We’ve stocked with some names who were not 1st round NFL Draft picks and fringe 1st round dynasty rookie draft picks. It’s nice to be able to find value at a position that is one of the trickiest in dynasty.
- Rachaad White– The RB4 in fantasy is as dependable as they get with nine straight weeks with double-digit fantasy points.
- James Cook– He’s blowing up with new OC Joe Brady and now has the 3rd most yards from scrimmage in the NFL
James Cook sporting a ridiculous 31.1% TPRR since new OC Joe Brady took over.
He's seen 30% of BUF rush att + targets, the highest mark of his career for any 4-game stretch.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 18, 2023
- De’Von Achane– The big play machine looks like a fringe RB1 for the next few years in a Miami offense that will age out other RBs.
- Isiah Pacheco– He’s been the most dependable part of the KC offense this year. The 7th round pick could have the backfield to himself in 2024 with CEH & McKinnon impending free agents.
If we can get Breece Hall & Javonte Williams healthier next year, we have a nice core of young RBs that have 1-2 year windows for contenders to build around. As the off-season progresses we will walk through some 2024 rookies to watch: Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Jonathan Brooks (ACL November).
Give Mahomes Real Weapons
After the Chiefs won the Super Bowl without Tyreek Hill, the storyline was clear: Patrick Mahomes is not from this planet and he needs no help in accomplishing his NFL goals. However, 2023 is developing into a different story of the KC offense:
- 3rd in passing yards but the 5th most INTs in the league
- 16th in Red Zone TD %
- 21st in Expected Points per Rush Attempt
In fact, the main storyline for the Chiefs is their staunch defense bailing them out time and time again with the lowest game totals of the Patrick Mahomes era. Since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, they’ve failed to equip him with weapons in the NFL Draft & Free Agency.
Free agent signings of Sammy Watkins, way-too-expensive cardio king Marquez Valdes-Scantling, superstar Justin Watson, and one-year with Juju Smith-Schuster have not corrected the problem. Travis Kelce is starting to show his age and for fantasy purposes, there has been virtually no value besides the recent tear of Rashee Rice:
If you want a true hot stat, the KC WR2 hasn’t finished inside the top-40 since 2004, the 1st George W. Bush administration. Jokes aside, the cap situation for the Chiefs does not look especially friendly for a huge free-agent WR splash. While Tee Higgins would be a nice addition, KC is currently $30 million under the cap with defensive free agents (DT Chris Jones & CB L’Jarius Sneed) set up for a huge pay day. Adding a weapon in the draft will be a primary objective for a team that is finishing the 2023 regular season in a middling in the AFC playoffs.
Offensive Coaching Trees Allowed to Flourish
I gave an impassioned plea on the podcast for organizations to get rid of this defense head coach hiring non-sense. Going back to 2018, the results have been… well, not good! “Fixing the defense” isn’t just a scheme issue; its a players/pass rush issue.
The problem is that it leaves your offense (the thing that sells tickets and produces difference-making results in this sport) open to mediocrity and a lack of identity. We’ve seen young offensive minds from coaching trees we trust flourish in their new homes. Mike McDaniel, Nick Sirianni, Shane Steichen, Kevin O’Connell, and Houston OC Bobby Slowik have crushed as young coaches with innovative ideas.
Here are a list of coordinators that could gain some off-season steam as head coaching candidates:
Offensive Coordinators
- DET OC Ben Johnson
- HOU OC Bobby Slowik
- CIN OC Brian Callahan
- LAC OC Kellen Moore
- MIA OC Frank Smith
- SEA OC Shane Waldron
- TB OC Dave Canales
Defensive Coordinators
- CIN DC Lou Anarumo
- MIN DC Brian Flores
- BAL DC Mike MacDonald
- LAR DC Raheem Morris
- CLE DC Jim Schwartz
- SF DC Steve Wilks