SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft: Post 2025 NFL Draft
On a recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Jason, Betz, and myself participated in a two-round 1QB Rookie Mock Draft.
For people who want a little more, I got the FootClan to follow up with a SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft.
You can also compare this mock draft to one I participated in before the NFL Draft.
SuperFlex Strategy
Before you simply look at the picks and move on with your life, I highly recommend an article I refer to often on the podcast entitled Do We Overvalue QBs in Rookie Drafts? if you want a deeper dive on SuperFlex drafting and Dynasty SuperFlex Ranks. I’ve written about this subject ad nauseum over the years but here are the main principles
- Philosophically, I find that the degree of difficulty and strategic parts of fantasy comes down to the competitiveness of your league and league mates, not the specific scoring settings.
- The real questions people want to know: “when should I take QBs? How should I value them rightly?”
- the main change in a SuperFlex versus as 1QB league is the supply & demand. 75% of the NFL QBs will be starting in a 12-person SuperFlex league.
- I’d argue 90 % of the game we play remains the same (across most formats) and the discussions on our podcasts can be tailored to whatever specific scoring you have.
Dynasty is a market and this is a key point: it is an inefficient market. You can win with so many different combinations and strategies just like with every other position. It’s worth repeating how much QB turnover there was year-to-year in the NFL. I wanted to get a better feel of the league and see if people were overvaluing low-end QB2s and QB3s in SuperFlex leagues. Since 2018, a third of the league’s Week 1 starters were NOT that team’s starter a year later. For more on the subject, I wrote a massive article last week entitled 55 Free Agency Implications for Dynasty Managers.
SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft
Now that I’ve shared a few SuperFlex thoughts, here is the draft board from our four round mock draft.
For each round, I will highlight some thoughts on the QBs, values I consider based on our dynasty rookie rankings, the biggest fallers from a previous SuperFlex mock draft, and the boldest move of each round.
Round 1
1.01- Ashton Jeanty, RB
1.02- Cam Ward, QB
1.03- Omarion Hampton, RB
1.04- Tetairoa McMillan, WR
1.05- Quinshon Judkins, RB
1.06- Travis Hunter, WR
1.07- Jaxson Dart, QB
1.08- Emeka Egbuka, WR
1.09- Treveyon Henderson, RB
1.10- R.J. Harvey, RB
1.11- Kaleb Johnson, RB
1.12- Colston Loveland, TE
QB Thoughts
In SuperFlex drafts, Ward shouldn’t fall past 1.04/1.05 but can go as early as 1.02 behind Jeanty for QB-needy teams. Outside of aging Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard, he has a pretty barren skill position group (except for his guy Treylon Burks!) Expect enough rushing 20-25+ yards to knock on the door of top-15 status in Year 1 if they let him roam free and make plays (ala Jayden Daniels) instead of trying to fit him into a system. This might’ve been a touch early for me for Dart even in SuperFlex with Egbuka and Henderson still on the board.
For both of these QBs, I do want to bring to your attention this little stat nugget: Over the last decade, among 35 QBs taken in 1st Round of NFL Draft, 16 had a new head coach in Year 2 (46%) and 19 had a new play-caller in Year 2 (54%). Continuity matters in a QB’s development especially with a player like Ward who plays with DGAF energy every snap. Who knows if Brian Callahan or Brian Daboll will be around?
Biggest Discrepancies from Ballers SuperFlex Ranks
- Cam Ward– 1.02 vs 1.07 in Ballers consensus (although Andy has him at 3rd overall)
- Treveyon Henderson– 1.09 vs. 1.04
- Jaxson Dart– 1.07 vs. 13th overall (although Jason has him at 9th overall)
Favorite Selections
Treveyon Henderson– Yes, this was my own pick but Hendo could go as high as 1.04 so this fall is not normal at all. I took him at 1.04 in my own SuperFlex draft.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Kaleb Johnson– Normally, we’d be paying a premium for a RB in the Steelers offense. While his 3rd round draft capital doesn’t look as strong as others, we were taking Trey Benson a good 3-4 picks higher last year. If you have a back of the 1st round pick, Johnson seems like a priority target although I’ve seen him go as high as 1.08 in some drafts.
“That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton”
Time to pile on Betz… taking Loveland over Warren! Has he disrespected all of his Penn State fandom? Ok, it’s hard to nitpick too many selection in the 1st round. However, the Loveland versus Warren debate cannot simply be settled by “he went 4 picks ahead of him” in the draft. These two TEs will be intertwined in our minds but the pass catching room in Chicago seems much more crowded than in Indianapolis. I personally don’t care about the QB situation knowing organizations change and the QBs will likely be different in 2026. It’s a coin flip but I side with my pre-draft evaluation of Warren over Loveland.
Round 2
2.01- Tre Harris, WR
2.02- Tyler Warren, TE
2.03- Luther Burden III, WR
2.04- Matthew Golden, WR
2.05- Jayden Higgins, WR
2.06- Cam Skattebo, RB
2.07- Bhayshul Tuten, RB
2.08- Jalen Milroe, QB
2.09- Jack Bech, WR
2.10- Elijah Arroyo, TE
2.11- Brashard Smith, RB
2.12- Jaylin Noel, WR
QB Thoughts
Is this too early for Milroe? Honestly, no one knows. Don’t let anyone talk you in/out on a player like this. We talked him up on the Dynasty Podcast last week as someone we’re willing to take a shot on given his rushing upside. The Seahawks are a juicy landing spot considering Sam Darnold is essentially playing for a future contract. In my research, I found a plethora of Day 2 QBs who were actually undervalued in SuperFlex. The top guys get pushed up but it feels like we don’t know what to do with the next tier of QBs.
Biggest Discrepancies from Ballers SuperFlex Ranks
- Tyler Warren– 2.02 vs. 10th overall
- Jalen Milroe– 2.08 vs. 26th overall
- Elijah Arroyo– 2.10 vs. 29th overall
- Brashard Smith– 2.11 vs. 52nd overall
Favorite Selections
Matthew Golden– Listen, at a certain point, everyone is just playing chicken. I know we talk down Golden a lot based on his analytical profile but the fall is too far in rookie drafts and this feels like stealing for a 1st round WR in an offense we like. Looking back at previous rookie drafts since 2015, the latest we’ve seen 1st round WRs go in dynasty rookie drafts: Phillip Dorsett (2.06 in 2015) and Kadarius Toney (2.08 in 2021). Those are not the dudes you want to be grouped with and yet I think beginning of the 2nd is a great spot to shoot for upside.
Jack Bech– We’ve been #BechBoys for a while and it’s nice to see the NFL Draft Capital match what we saw on film. He can step right into an every-down role opposite Jakobi Meyers on the Raiders although the clear No. 1 on this team is TE Brock Bowers. He was one of a handful of prospects who produced 3.0+ yards per route run against zone coverage making his transition to the NFL hopefully seamless. He looks like a strong mid-2nd round rookie pick.
“That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton”
I talked this out with Rakim (one of our Discord moderators and KC Chiefs fan) about 7th round RB Brashard Smith. He made some solid points justifying his pick so I will forward his words here: “Pacheco was involved immediately a few years ago and had similar draft capital. His ability as a special teams ace will keep him active on game-days and the depth chart is very open…Smith has the highest upside of any RB left on the board with an outside chance of hitting majorly for fantasy. His transition from WR will only boost his appeal on 3rd downs… From the late-2nd onwards, I think he possess the most upside overall.” I don’t mind taking a shot in the 3rd but the 2nd ahead of a ton of other guys is a bit too rich for me.
Round 3
3.01- Tyler Shough, QB
3.02- Pat Bryant, WR
3.03- Devin Neal, RB
3.04- Harold Fannin Jr., TE
3.05- Mason Taylor, TE
3.06- Kyle Williams, WR
3.07- Dylan Sampson, RB
3.08- Elic Ayonmanor, WR
3.09- Terrance Ferguson, TE
3.10- Woody Marks, RB
3.11- Jaylen Royals, WR
3.12- Jaydon Blue, RB
QB Thoughts
Shough originally went 4.12(!) in the mock I did with the FootClan a month ago. He received a ton of media buzz in the weeks leading up to the draft based on the parade of top-30 visits he participated in: NYG, CLE, SEA, PIT, IND, NYJ, LV, and NO. Whew. Listen, Shough might be older than a third of the starting QBs in the league (true statement) but the Saints obviously think the 6’5” journeyman Louisville QB can be a starter in the league. With Derek Carr’s injury status up in the air and Spencer Rattler essentially flinging poo all over the field last year, Shough should be viewed as the team’s starting QB for the near future. In SuperFlex leagues, he looks like a high-risk, high-reward in the late 2nd/early 3rd round if you think Kellen Moore can turn this offense into a juggernaut like he did in his previous stops as play-caller.
Biggest Discrepancies from Ballers SuperFlex Ranks
- Pat Bryant– 3.02 vs. 22nd overall
- Mason Taylor– 3.05 vs. 25th overall (he is 19th on Andy’s board)
- Kyle Williams– 3.06 vs. 21st overall
Favorite Selections
Pat Bryant– He wasn’t really on anyone’s radar for fantasy prior to the NFL Draft, but Sean Payton decided to use a 3rd round pick on the WR out of Illinois. We know Courtland Sutton is there as the #1 option, but Bryant is now firmly in the mix to compete with Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele for playing time as a complementary piece. He’s worth a stash in the 3rd round of rookie drafts.
Woody Marks- The 4th round pick has the three-down skill set to compete with Dameon Pierce, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. Who knows what this backfield looks like in a year so for now, throwing a dart at Joe Mixon‘s potential backup with the last pick of the third round seems worthwhile.
“That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton”
Devin Neal ahead of Dylan Sampson is tough for me to swallow. There is roughly a 10 spot difference in our rookie rankings and the backfield situations need to be weighed. The Saints recently re-signed Alvin Kamara while Cleveland essentially has a clean slate with Quinshon Judkins and 4th round pick Sampson. He offers a “counter-punch” to Judkins physical style. Perhaps the Browns backfield ends up being more of a 1-2 punch? I’m targeting Sampson in the early 3rd round hoping the SEC player of the year’s production wasn’t a fluke.
Round 4
4.01- Dillon Gabriel, QB
4.02- Ollie Gordon II, RB
4.03- Jarquez Hunter, RB
4.04- Shedeur Sanders, QB
4.05- Jordan James, RB
4.06- D.J. Giddens, RB
4.07- Damien Martinez, RB
4.08- Tai Felton, WR
4.09- Isaac TeSlaa, WR
4.10- Tory Horton, WR
4.11- Tahj Brooks, RB
4.12- Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
QB Thoughts
The Browns QB coach (Bill Musgrave) must be stressed. “I didn’t sign up for this!” Taking your shot on one of the Browns QB is justifiable in the 4th round. The data is not kind for QBs selected in the 3rd and 4th round of SuperFlex drafts. Dating back to 2014, it’s been Hurts (3.01) and Prescott (3.06). Obviously those are absolute home runs but we’d consider them outliers. At the end of the day, the QBs you’ll be taking in this spot don’t have the draft capital nor situation to become anything more than a shot in the dark. If you find yourself into Pittsburgh’s Will Howard, this is the spot but good luck!
Biggest Discrepancies from Ballers SuperFlex Ranks
- Damien Martinez– 4.07 vs. 57th overall
- Tai Felton– 4.08 vs. 36th overall
- Isaac TeSlaa– 4.09 vs. 27th overall
Favorite Selections
Jarquez Hunter– The backfield in LA seems complicated with Kyren Williams and last year’s 3rd round pick Blake Corum. However, Sean McVay doesn’t exactly play by the rules of fantasy with Day 3 guys (Kyren, Puka) shining through repeatedly when they fit his system. Taking a shot in the 4th on the talented Hunter is worthwhile.
Day 2 WRs– Both Felton and TeSlaa fell to the 4th round behind Day 3 guys. While this isn’t an exact science, the draft capital the NFL teams deployed for these WRs should cause us to take notice, especially TeSlaa. The Lions went wayyyyy ahead of consensus to take the combine standout.
The Lions made an aggressive trade up for Isaac TeSlaa, giving Jacksonville a 21% premium compared to what my Empirical Trade model would expect.
Even with the heavy discounting of the two future 3s, this premium falls in the 95th percentile of trade-ups since 2011. https://t.co/wbpngQhErC
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhardNFL) April 26, 2025
“That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton”
I’m a bit worried about Ollie Gordon II. While it’s hard blocking out his other-worldly sophomore season, is this one of those RBs who we are left asking, “what happened?” His name value keeps his rookie stock buoyed for now. In my research, when you survey the list of the rookie RBs drafted in the 3rd round or later of the NFL draft and where managers took them in dynasty, it might cause you to rethink your life.
- Of the 40 RBs selected since 2015 in dynasty rookie drafts, only five became RB1s in their 1st year.
- Yet, 13 of those RBs with that type of NFL draft capital (3rd round or worse) ended up as top-5 rookie picks!
If you want a follow-up on this subject, one of our writers Matt DiSorbo wrote an article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot? He wanted to take this idea a step further than just including draft capital. It’s hard to quantify “skill” or “landing spot” but in his methodology, he tries to get as close as possible using fantasy points as a metric. His findings for the two major positions were thus:
- Skill and landing spot effects are equal and opposite for RBs
- Skill is much more important for WRs.