Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 11
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Report!
Every week this article will work to highlight the biggest storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year.
Marvin Elequin is out this week, so I’ll do my best Marvin impression to keep this awesome article series rolling along!
To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 9
To keep the dashboard concise, the article will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
Rookie Observations after Week 10:
- Jahmyr Gibbs has to be the talk of the rookies for dynasty after a 24.70-point week that gives him his first career RB1 overall finish. The biggest concern heading into Week 10 was the return of David Montgomery to the Lions’ backfield after missing two games with a rib injury. What was a bit surprising is Gibbs received 58% of snaps, 54% of carries, and five red zone carries with what seemed to be a full-strength Montgomery. That kind of split is a stark difference from the first four games of the year when Gibbs never saw more than 48% of snaps with a healthy Montgomery. While Gibbs being the leader in the backfield may not be prescriptive for the remainder of the season, it has to be encouraging that he should at least be highly involved going forward in an offense that fantasy managers can feel confident about down the stretch of the season.
- It was apparently the week to give rookie RBs carries inside the red zone because Bijan Robinson received his second carry inside the five-yard line of his career and you’ll never guess what happened – IT WORKED. This genuinely just proves that Arthur Smith is just kind of making it up out there, but I guess we can’t complain after nearly three months of complaining about how he’s used his top-10 pick at RB. Bijan’s big day turned into his fourth top-12 finish of the season and hopefully, this will just be the beginning of a big stretch to end the fantasy season as the Falcons head into their bye week.
- Another week, another Tank Dell finish inside the top 12 of WRs. Dell saw a gaudy 35% target share against the Bengals with 14 total targets on the day. What’s been most impressive about Dell’s rookie season has been the versatility he’s showing in the receiving game for the Texans. Dell was initially thought of as a PPR, close to the line of scrimmage type of receiver, but he’s shown he’s much more than that already. On the season, Dell’s average depth of target is 13.8, which ranks sixth in the league among WRs with at least 35 targets. As long as the Texans continue to seem unconcerned with leaning on the running game regularly, Dell feels like an easy option to continue penciling into lineups.
- We didn’t get the big week we’d hoped for from Dalton Kincaid, but he did wrap up his fourth-straight week inside the top-12 TEs and saw a target share of at least 20% for the third time in four games. Kincaid has established himself as a proper second option in the Bills’ offense, even with the team losing four of their last six games. If Kincaid can continue to see this amount of targets in Buffalo, he could contend to be a top-six TE by the end of the season.
- The return of Kyler Murray should be a great thing for Michael Wilson down the stretch of the season, and we got a glimpse of that in Week 10. Wilson didn’t have a great fantasy day, but he did see a 19% target share in his first week with Murray, so that’s something to build on for the rest of the season at least. If Wilson can continue seeing work as Murray gets back into rhythm with the Cardinals’ offense, he could be a valuable piece for fantasy managers on the cheap.
- It only took six weeks without Mike Williams in the lineup for Quentin Johnston to finish inside the top 30 WRs. While it’s encouraging for Johnston to finally show something that fantasy managers can believe in, his week was really saved by a TD catch since he only had 34 yards in a game that had a combined 79 points. There’s still plenty of season left, but unless Johnston can string together some bigger receiving performances for the Chargers, he may end up being a hold for dynasty managers for the rest of the season.
- For the third week in a row, Zach Charbonnet saw more than 50% of snaps for Seattle but still hasn’t returned a fantasy finish that should instill any confidence for fantasy managers to be able to put him into their lineups. While Kenneth Walker III is still getting more carries than Charbonnet, it’s the passing game involvement for the rookie that should be intriguing going forward. Charbonnet saw a season-high five targets against the Commanders, so there may be more opportunity for him to have an impact if he continues to be utilized that way in Seattle.
Dynasty Stock Report
Ty Chandler – Minnesota Vikings, RB
Opportunity has come knocking for Ty Chandler after yet another injury to the Minnesota Vikings’ RB room. Chandler had a solid week after Alexander Mattison left the game against the Saints, finishing as the RB25 behind 15 carries for 45 yards. Chandler came into the league as a solid RB prospect with a decent receiving profile and a good showing at the combine running a 4.38. Despite getting Day 3 draft capital, Chandler has hung around through all the RB changes over the last two seasons in Minnesota and will have a chance to convince the current coaching staff he deserves to be in a bigger role going forward. Currently, Chandler has the longest and cheapest contract in the Minnesota RB room, so what could be a temporary fix in the Vikings’ offense could continue into next season and he’s worth having some investment in.
I hate to say it, but things went from bad to worse for Jameson Williams in Week 10. After being drafted 12th overall in 2022, Williams has just 26 receptions in 11 games he’s played and just one top-24 WR finish. Williams had a great collegiate production profile, finishing with over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs in his final season at Alabama. What’s slightly encouraging for Williams is the 52% of snaps he saw in Week 10, the highest of his career in a single game. On the flip side, the Lions brought in Donovan Peoples-Jones at the trade deadline and he didn’t appear in Detroit’s game against the Chargers. If DPJ is on the field anywhere near where Williams is against Chicago this week, it may be a lost cause for one of my favorite prospects from the 2022 class.
The changes in Las Vegas have benefitted the Raiders overall, but their rookie TE Michael Mayer could be moving toward being a consistent TE option for fantasy managers. Mayer has seen a large uptick in snaps over the last three weeks, playing more than 88% each game, but with fellow rookie QB Aidan O’Connell the presumed starter for the rest of the season, we may finally get to see what Mayer is capable of in the passing game. Mayer saw five targets for the second time this season and caught his first TD of his career in impressive fashion. If Mayer can continue to establish himself with O’Connell as a red zone target, there could be more to come from the Raiders’ rookie.
Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills, WR
After two decent weeks in a row, Khalil Shakir came back to Earth against a tough Bronco defense. While he’s still on the field for the Bills a good bit, Shakir’s involvement returned to its usual irrelevance in Week 10. If the 2022 fifth-round pick is going to take hold for fantasy managers, he’ll have to find a way to jump either Gabe Davis or Dalton Kincaid in the pecking order for targets with Josh Allen. With changes coming to the offense ahead after the firing of Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey, Shakir’s role is uncertain going forward.
Prospect Watch List
Keon Coleman – Florida State, WR
The general consensus is that there’s a clear-cut top WR in the 2024 draft class, but after that, there are at least four WRs that could be first-round picks, and Keon Coleman leads that group. Coleman has everything that we look for in a fantasy prospect coming out of college. He’ll be just 20 years old when the draft takes place, has the size and speed that allows him to win at different levels in the passing game, and is putting together an impressive collegiate profile to back up his physical characteristics.
Coleman is getting to play on a much higher profile team this season with Florida State positioning themselves for a College Football Playoff spot, but his sophomore season at Michigan State still tells the tale of a WR who can be a game-changer at the next level. In 2022 for the Spartans, Coleman led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs on a team that included future second-round pick Jayden Reed. What’s more impressive is how Coleman has carried his strong sophomore season into an even better one with a better offense for the Seminoles.
|Season||Receptions Share||Receiving Yards Share||Receiving TDs Share||Total TD Share|
Through 10 games with Florida State, Coleman has put up impressive numbers especially when it comes to finding the end zone, posting a gaudy 43% of the team’s receiving TDs, a mark only two players in the 2022 class were higher in. While there’s still some improvement to be desired in other advanced receiving numbers like Coleman’s sub 2.0 yards per team pass attempt, his ability to walk into a new system and continue to win consistently at a high level is encouraging for his transition to the NFL.
For dynasty managers who may miss out on the 1.01 in their 2024 rookie drafts, getting Coleman as the WR2 is a realistic option, especially if he’s able to sneak into the top 10 in the NFL draft.