Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2025 Tight End Class
Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series!
This article will take a deeper look at this year’s rookie class and assess each player’s potential trajectory in the NFL. By identifying historical comps using multiple data points, we can determine the likelihood of a player breaking out at the next level. Naturally, this process isn’t perfect, but it should still provide some guidance on what to expect from this TE class.
To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2025 rookie class:
- Draft Capital: Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three RBs are often easily replaced.
- Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (WRs and TEs) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (RBs). These two metrics account for usage and efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
- Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are classified as early declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early declare prospects have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This is likely because the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, having already achieved significant success at the collegiate level.
- Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing De’Von Achane to someone like Derrick Henry, who is over 50 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types.
Before diving in, keep in mind that this article will not include every prospect from the 2025 class. However, by highlighting the most productive and polarizing prospects, dynasty managers can also use this information to evaluate the ones that did not make the list. If you are looking for a similar analysis on RBs and WRs, you can find those on the site as well:
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2025 TE class!
Tyler Warren enters the league after one of the most productive seasons for a collegiate TE in recent history. In his final year, he achieved over 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards, averaging an impressive 2.82 receiving yards per team pass attempt over 16 games. His performance in that season ranks in the 97th percentile among all drafted tight ends since 2013. While some might diminish Warren’s campaign due to his age, we have to keep in mind that we rarely see even older TEs produce at such a high level. You might also be wondering, how can Warren’s historical comps be so underwhelming despite an elite final season? Simply put, the most successful first-round TEs were all highly productive early in their careers, declaring early for the NFL draft. As a result, that severely limits our comp list for Warren, who only had one productive season in five years with Penn State. Regardless, I remain optimistic that Warren could become a valuable dynasty asset because of his versatility and receiving ability, which should lead to immediate playing time with the Colts. And even though Hayden Hurst represents the lower end of Warren’s range of outcomes, O.J. Howard was a top-five fantasy TE before injuries ultimately derailed his career. In short, while his profile is far from perfect, Warren holds plenty of upside, joining a Colts team that desperately needed talent at the TE position.
While some may have Warren as their TE1, Colston Loveland has a much more accomplished collegiate profile, averaging over 30% of Michigan’s receiving production in his final two seasons. Combined with top-tier efficiency and first-round capital, Loveland is the highest graded TE in my rookie model for this year’s class. As a result, his list of historical comps provides a much higher dynasty floor compared to Warren, headlined by two of the most productive TEs in T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku. Ideally, if Loveland can replicate Hockenson’s career path, we could be looking at multiple TE1 campaigns early in his NFL career. Even Njoku has been impressive in recent seasons, ranking within the top 10 over the last three years. And even though Kyle Pitts has disappointed (in part due to injuries), he remains one of the most productive rookie TEs in NFL history. Therefore, dynasty managers should feel confident selecting Loveland as a first-round pick in rookie drafts, especially for those in a TE premium league. As for his landing spot, Loveland will likely split snaps with Cole Kmet in his rookie year. However, considering Kmet’s contract is non-guaranteed after this season, I would not be shocked to see him emerge as the Bears’ TE1 heading into next year.
While the 2025 draft is defined by the talent at RB, the TE position also boasts considerable depth. That includes Terrance Ferguson, who is among five TEs in the 2025 class who score in the +85th percentile of my rookie model. First off, unlike Warren and Loveland, Ferguson has an underwhelming production profile, failing to exceed a 15% receiving dominator rating in any of his four seasons with Oregon. Despite that, he still holds plenty of upside because of his draft capital and elite athletic measurables. Keep in mind that while athleticism has a lower correlation with NFL production for WRs and RBs, it is highly predictive for assessing TEs. As a result, Ferguson’s 9.32 Relative Athletic Score holds significant value in my model. To no surprise, one of his closest comps is Mike Gesicki, who was the most athletic TE in his class and a borderline TE1 in his early days with the Dolphins. As for his landing spot, Ferguson finds himself in a favorable situation with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. And while he will likely play behind Tyler Higbee in his rookie campaign, he should have every opportunity to take over as the TE1 entering the 2026 season.
Harold Fannin Jr. projects to be one of the better values in dynasty drafts. While he is not an elite athlete, Fannin enters the league as one of the most accomplished college TEs in recent history. For context, he totaled over 1,600 receiving yards and averaged an elite 3.7 receiving yards per team pass attempt in 2024, which is the most productive season by a drafted TE since 2010. Not even Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers were able to exceed that threshold throughout their collegiate careers. Because of Fannin’s elite production, I had to extend my thresholds significantly to even find a prospect with a vaguely similar profile. And even though Austin Hooper has seen his production decline in recent years, keep in mind that he emerged as a fantasy TE1 in his third and fourth seasons with Atlanta. Similarly, Fannin’s breakout may be delayed as David Njoku will remain ahead of him on the depth chart to start his career. But with Njoku set to enter free agency next year, there could be an opening for Fannin to emerge as the Browns’ long-term option at TE.
While he did receive second-round capital, Mason Taylor never truly broke out in his three seasons at LSU, averaging only 14% of their receiving yards in his best season. It is worth noting that during his three years at LSU, their offense ran heavily through multiple NFL-caliber receivers, including Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Kayshon Boutte. Because of that, Taylor was the third receiving option at best throughout his collegiate career, severely limiting his opportunities to produce. On a positive note, Taylor has one of the better athletic profiles, which is partially why he still holds some value as a dynasty asset. For context, his 8.9 Relative Athletic Score ranks fourth in his class and grades very similarly to Cole Kmet, who happens to be one of his historical comps. Ironically, Taylor is set to receive passes from the QB who helped Kmet produce a TE1 season back in 2023 (Justin Fields). And with very little depth behind Garrett Wilson, there should be plenty of targets available for Taylor to emerge in their offense. From a dynasty perspective, I remain cautiously optimistic about his long-term outlook. Even though there are multiple red flags in his profile (primarily from a production and efficiency standpoint), Taylor remains a solid pick in the third round of dynasty rookie drafts.
As with every skill position, breakout rates drop significantly for day-three prospects. In fact, since 2013, we have only seen three TEs break out in the fourth round, which equates to only a 12.5% hit rate. With that in mind, I am tempering expectations for Gunnar Helm, who was drafted by the Tennessee Titans after an underwhelming career at Texas. Even in his final season, in which he totaled over 700 receiving yards, he only averaged a 17.6% receiving yards market share. As a result, Helm’s dynasty comps offer a mixed bag of results. Although Tyler Higbee and Cade Otton have displayed moments of production, neither has achieved elite status with their respective teams. In the case of Otton, he is only 26 years old, which means he could still emerge over the next few seasons. Similarly, Brycen Hopkins and Cade Stover are still relatively young, though they have yet to flash any fantasy upside to start their careers. In addition, Helm finds himself in an offense with plenty of question marks. Can Cam Ward elevate the Titans’ offense? Will Helm play behind Chigoziem Okonkwo to start his career? Combined with his underwhelming draft capital and production, I would be shocked to see Helm’s dynasty value improve in the near future.
Unlike Helm, Oronde Gadsden II was far more productive in his four seasons at Syracuse. In his last two healthy seasons, Gadsden accounted for 26% of Syracuse’s receiving yards, showcasing significant upside and versatility as a former WR. As a result, he ranks third in this class in experience-adjusted production with +0.34 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. While his production stands out, Gadsden’s dynasty outlook remains limited because of his draft capital. Naturally, most will point to George Kittle’s successful career despite falling to the fifth round of the NFL draft. However, keep in mind that since 2013, Kittle is the ONLY fifth-round TE prospect to break out in the NFL. That equates to an underwhelming 5.9% hit rate for fifth-round TEs. So even though his landing spot is somewhat intriguing, playing alongside Justin Herbert, the likelihood of Gadsden ever producing a TE1 season remains very low.
Comments
People forget the TEs that Warren played behind in those 4 years before his breakout: Pat Freiermuth (Drafted in 2021), Brenton Strange (Drafted in 2023), and Theo Johnson (Drafted in 2024). That may have been pointed out in past articles and on the pod so my bad if it was, but I think it’s good context to consider with Warren.