2024 Dynasty Ultimatums: 5 WRs Entering Make-or-Break Fantasy Seasons
Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Last season, we introduced this series to spotlight players on the brink of pivotal fantasy seasons, providing insights into their future dynasty outlooks. Reflecting on last year’s article, several of the wide receivers we highlighted experienced a continued decline, resulting in lackluster fantasy campaigns that significantly diminished their dynasty stock. Conversely, a few players surpassed expectations, elevating their dynasty value to new heights.
In our 2023 analysis, we focused on Deebo Samuel, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Elijah Moore, and Rashod Bateman. Among them, only Samuel and Ridley successfully met their ultimatum requirements. On the other hand, Williams endured yet another injury-plagued season, casting uncertainty over his future as he enters his first season with the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Moore and Bateman, once promising prospects, now teeter on the verge of irrelevance in the deepest of dynasty leagues.
As the 2024 NFL season looms, it raises numerous questions about the future of several prominent players. For dynasty managers, maintaining grounded expectations for these polarizing players is paramount. While it is challenging to reconsider players once highly touted, establishing dynasty ultimatums can aid in more efficient and strategic roster management. In this article, we dig into controversial wide receivers poised for pivotal seasons, detailing the benchmarks they must reach to align with current expectations.
Check out the first two articles from this series, featuring quarterbacks and running backs.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (23.3 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2026), 4 yr(s) / $17,461,790
Free Agent: 2027 / UFA
If a cat has nine lives, Jameson Williams appears to be on track for comparable resilience, particularly in maintaining his value within dynasty leagues. Once heralded as a top prospect from the University of Alabama, Williams has encountered a series of setbacks, including significant injuries and off-the-field issues, which have severely limited his playing time with the Detroit Lions. Consequently, his on-field performance has yielded modest returns, averaging just over four fantasy points per game to begin his NFL career. Despite these adversities, Williams retains an unwavering support base among believers who remain committed to his potential. However, as he enters his pivotal third season, the landscape for evaluating his future in dynasty leagues becomes increasingly critical. The 2024 season will determine whether Williams can finally live up to his first-round draft capital or if he should be reassessed as a player who fell short of his collegiate potential.
While Williams has demonstrated his elite speed and potential for deep-ball receptions, he enters a crowded offense with numerous playmakers heading into the upcoming season. Among this talented group, none are expected to outperform Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has emerged as a star in recent seasons. St. Brown’s 164 targets last season ranked fourth in the NFL, trailing only CeeDee Lamb (181), Davante Adams (175), Tyreek Hill (171), and Garrett Wilson (168). He also averaged over 10 targets per game, a feat shared by only six players. The team additionally boasts last year’s rookie sensation, Sam LaPorta, whose debut season set a new standard for rookie tight ends in fantasy football. Given these established and prominent roles, it seems improbable that Williams will surpass either player in opportunities in the foreseeable future.
Furthermore, Jahmyr Gibbs ranked sixth among running backs in targets per game with 4.73 as a rookie, indicating the potential for an expanded receiving role moving forward. Considering these dynamics, Williams may face challenges in consistently securing a substantial share of opportunities each week. Despite the departure of Josh Reynolds, who commanded an 11% target market share last season, this could hinder Williams’ reliability as a consistent fantasy asset. While Williams seems poised to seize the WR2 role within the offense, his targets might still be constrained due to the presence of a clear WR1 and elite talents at other skill positions who demand significant target shares.
The 2024 season looms as pivotal for Williams’ dynasty value. Despite a uniquely challenging start to his NFL career, another unproductive year would force a reassessment of his realistic potential. If he fails to emerge, doubts about his ability to fulfill his college promise will continue to grow. Williams faces a significant test to achieve his dynasty ultimatum this season, as he must finish as a top-30 wide receiver to cement his long-term value. This goal seems daunting given the fierce competition for targets expected in 2024 and beyond. However, Williams was drafted to be great, and achieving this fantasy benchmark would signal a significant step forward toward achieving this status. Personally, I harbor doubts about Williams living up to his initial draft pedigree in dynasty leagues. While he may have a valuable role for his offense, he resembles more of a boom-or-bust option suitable for favorable matchups as a fantasy asset. In essence, he resembles a glorified version of Rashid Shaheed for fantasy purposes, with potentially more competition for targets and opportunities. Therefore, if a team in your league still firmly believes in Williams fulfilling his perceived potential, I would strongly consider trading him to them while his value remains relatively high.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (22.8 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2023-2027), 4 yr(s) / $14,188,778
Free Agent: 2028 / UFA
Quentin Johnston entered his rookie season with QUGE expectations, being one of the most promising wide receiver prospects and the second highest-drafted at his position. However, he struggled to seize the opportunity, much like the many passes that slipped through his fingers last season. Calling Johnston’s debut NFL season a disappointment would be an understatement. Despite playing alongside one of the league’s top quarterbacks, Justin Herbert, and having numerous chances to shine due to injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Johnston failed to make an impact. Yet, with his first-round draft pedigree and being only 23 years old, Johnston has the potential to bounce back. It will be up to him to make significant strides in the season ahead, though the odds are admittedly not in his favor.
Examining his metrics from last season reveals some alarming statistics. Johnston’s 13.6% targets per route run rate and 0.88 yards per route run were among the worst ever recorded for a first-round draft pick in NFL history. His 6% drop rate was the highest of any rookie with at least 50 targets, and his four drops tied for the fourth-most among rookies. Additionally, he concluded the season with only 38 receptions for 431 yards, ranking 15th among rookie receivers. Despite this challenging debut, there are reasons for optimism about Johnston’s potential to rebound in his second year. This includes the arrival of a new coaching staff and the potential for a prominent role in the offense.
The Los Angeles Chargers underwent a major offensive transformation this offseason, arguably unmatched by any other team in the NFL. After another disappointing season plagued by injuries, the Chargers made significant changes, including parting ways with Head Coach Brandon Staley. In his place, they hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off a National Championship victory at the University of Michigan, hoping he would bring his winning culture to Los Angeles. Harbaugh appointed Greg Roman as offensive coordinator to revitalize the offense and hopefully steer the team toward more victories. While the team plans to emphasize their running game and reduce passing volume in 2024, a new offensive system could potentially maximize Johnston’s strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. This might involve incorporating more designed plays that allow him to showcase his skills with the ball in his hands, rather than limiting him to an outside role.
Adding to the opportunity for a bounce-back, the offensive landscape for the upcoming season will undergo a substantial overhaul following the team’s decision to part ways with key players Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. These offensive weapons have been crucial to the team’s success in recent years, collectively accounting for 40% of the team’s targets last season. This percentage would have been even higher if not for Williams’ injury-plagued season, which limited him to just three games. The team also bid farewell to Gerald Everett, who held an 11% target share last season.
While Johnston has a chance to step into the newly available opportunities, he faces considerable competition for targets. The most notable contender is Ladd McConkey, the team’s second-round pick in this year’s draft. Though roles for the upcoming season are still uncertain, McConkey is expected to fill the “Keenan Allen role” in the offense, primarily playing in the slot. Veteran wide receiver Josh Palmer, who has shown promise when given increased opportunities over the years, will also vie for targets. These two receivers will compete with Johnston to become the top target in the offense, a potentially daunting situation for Johnston if he falls to third in the pecking order, especially given the team’s projected reduction in passing volume.
The 2024 season will ultimately define the trajectory of Johnston’s career. He could suffer another disappointing season, solidifying his status as a major bust, a fate that has befallen many first-round wide receivers before him. However, there are promising developments surrounding him that suggest a potential bounce-back season to reignite his career. It is noteworthy that Johnston’s former teammate, Mike Williams, who enjoyed several highly productive years with the Chargers, finished his rookie season with just 11 catches for 95 yards in 10 games. While comparing trajectories is speculative, Johnston’s opportunity is clear and within his grasp.
Johnston’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish the upcoming season as a top-30 wide receiver, signaling a significant step forward. Achieving this goal will be a daunting challenge, underscoring the controversial nature of his career path. While it might be difficult to get done, exploring the possibility of trading him before the season begins for a second-round pick might be prudent, given the uncertainty. Conversely, I would consider acquiring him for a third-round pick to capitalize on the potential for a resurgence. I have successfully completed this trade twice already this offseason. While the odds of Johnston meeting his initial draft expectations are slim, there remains a chance he can make substantial progress from last year in the upcoming season.
Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (27.1 y.o.)
Current Contract: Free Agent (2024-2024), 1 yr(s) / $7,000,000
Free Agent: 2025 / UFA
Is it just me, or does Hollywood seem to have lost some of its glamor and sparkle recently? Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who showed immense promise in his early seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, has struggled to capitalize on his potential since leaving his original team. In his first two years with the Arizona Cardinals, Brown has finished worse than WR45 in consecutive seasons. Despite these recent struggles, Brown is just 27 years old and should be in the prime of his career. In the first half of the 2021 season, Brown exhibited a true breakout, averaging just over 85 yards per game on nearly nine targets per game through the first eight weeks. Unfortunately, after Lamar Jackson suffered a season-ending ankle injury, Brown’s performance declined significantly, and he has yet to fully rebound.
It is noteworthy that Brown experienced similar success in his first six games with Arizona the following year, averaging over 80 receiving yards per game on nearly 11 targets. However, his performance once again dropped sharply after Kyler Murray sustained a major ACL injury. This decline continued into the beginning of last season with Murray out, compounded by Brown’s own heel injury, which significantly hindered his performance for the rest of the year. Could Brown have had a strong second half of the season if not for his heel injury? It is difficult to say. Nonetheless, we have seen a substantial decline in Brown’s performance in recent years, significantly altering the perception of his dynasty outlook.
While metrics suggest that Brown might be experiencing a decline in his performance, it is noteworthy that he tends to excel under certain conditions. When completely healthy and supported by an elite quarterback with plenty of targets, Brown consistently delivers exceptional performances. Although this ideal combination is challenging for any wide receiver to find, the 2024 season offers some promise for Brown. Despite failing to secure a long-term lucrative contract this offseason, Brown signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. This “prove-it” deal allows him the opportunity to play alongside Patrick Mahomes and the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Although most now consider him as washed up as a forgotten load of laundry, it is worth noting that JuJu Smith-Schuster racked up over 900 yards in 2022 after joining Mahomes and the Chiefs. While Smith-Schuster could not sustain his momentum with New England the following season, there is hope that Brown will achieve similar success with his new team.
So he appears to be entering the season in peak health, bolstered by unquestionably the league’s top quarterback. The final piece for his resurgence is being in a system that is able to offer ample targets on a consistent basis. Luckily, there is a pathway for Kansas City to present this opportunity, though competition will be fierce. At the top of the pecking order is Travis Kelce, who, despite being nearly 35, continues to dominate with over 120 targets in seven consecutive seasons, remaining Mahomes’ primary target for 2024. Despite Rashee Rice‘s breakout rookie season in 2023, his future is now clouded by a pending suspension, presenting an opportunity for Brown to develop chemistry with Mahomes before Rice returns to action.
However, Brown faces stiff competition not only from Rice but also from other young receivers vying for the WR1 spot. Kansas City’s selection of Xavier Worthy with the 28th pick in the NFL draft presents a significant challenge. Worthy, a speedster who set a record with a 4.21 40-yard dash at the combine, shares a similar skillset to Brown, potentially creating redundancy in their roles within the offense. The wide receiver group also features Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. While these players may not be household names, they have the potential to emerge as contributors, which could impact Brown’s opportunities for targets.
A notable departure from last season’s wide receiver room is Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). As the lead vertical threat for Mahomes, MVS played a valuable role in the offense despite some costly drops down the stretch. He leaves behind a 7% target share now up for grabs. While MVS was important to the offense, he was never a consistently reliable option for fantasy football during his tenure. For Brown to be more valuable for fantasy purposes, he must prove to be more than just a vertical threat with occasional opportunities. Outperforming Xavier Worthy and developing stronger chemistry with Mahomes is crucial to avoid falling behind Worthy and Rice, especially when Rice returns from his suspension.
Due to this, Brown’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-25 wide receiver in 2024, proving he remains a significant talent and a valuable dynasty asset. Though he has only achieved this status once in his career, the success of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished as WR33 in 2022, suggests higher expectations for Brown, who appears to have more potential at this point in his career. If Brown falls behind the younger receivers, securing a long-term contract or a significant role with another team will be challenging. With declining efficiency numbers in recent seasons, trading him away before the season starts might be wise if another league member is optimistic about his new opportunity. Few players face as pivotal a season as Brown, and he must seize the moment to revive his career.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (25.2 y.o.)
Current Contract: Free Agent (2024-2027), 3 yr(s) / $52,500,000
Free Agent: 2028 / UFA
After being touted as one of the better collegiate wide receiver prospects in recent memory, Jerry Jeudy has struggled to find his groove in the NFL, playing more like “Jerry Booty.” Yes, we take advantage of any butt joke when the opportunity presents itself around here. Jeudy has finished as a top-40 wide receiver in only one season since entering the league in 2020. Even the depleted Denver Broncos seemed to lose faith in him, making desperate attempts to trade him over the past two seasons before finally succeeding this offseason. Now, Jeudy is set to enter his first season with the Cleveland Browns, who surprisingly offered him a three-year, $52 million contract before he played a single down for them. While it will be challenging for Jeudy to revive his career, he is still just 25 years old and appears to be of significance to his new team. The lingering question revolves around whether Jeudy can meet Cleveland’s perceived expectations, given the contract they awarded him. Despite slim odds, it is valuable to explore what the 2024 season could mean for his future dynasty outlook.
Jeudy is expected to step in as the WR2 behind Amari Cooper in Cleveland for the upcoming season. Despite his age, Cooper remains one of the league’s top wide receivers, with 128 targets in 2023 and an average of 8.53 targets per game, ranking 15th among all wide receivers. Beyond Cooper, the competition for opportunities in the wide receiver room is relatively thin, with Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman being the most notable names. While it should not be difficult for Jeudy to secure the WR2 role, it is also not guaranteed. Even if Jeudy claims the WR2 spot, it does not ensure he will be the second-most targeted player in the offense. The Browns boast a highly talented tight end in David Njoku, who had a breakout season last year, particularly in the second half with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Njoku had the third-most targets among tight ends last season (123), trailing only Evan Engram (143) and TJ Hockenson (127). The presence of both Cooper and Njoku could make it challenging for Jeudy to be a reliable fantasy asset on a weekly basis.
Ultimately, this offense will likely go as far as Deshaun Watson allows it. Despite being one of the most promising young quarterbacks at the start of his career in Houston, he has looked like a shadow of his former self since joining Cleveland. To illustrate how poorly Watson has performed, he averaged only 17.5 completions per game in the six games he played last season. This was less than both Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell and seven fewer than Flacco averaged with the team. If Watson continues this dismal level of play, it is difficult to envision any receiver outside of Cooper and Njoku being fantasy-relevant anytime soon. Therefore, if you are hoping for a bounce-back season for Jeudy in 2024, you are also counting on a resurgence from Watson. While possible, it seems challenging to imagine both of them having a career revival simultaneously.
Jeudy has displayed flashes of his gazelle-like running ability and precise route-running over his four-year career but has struggled to establish himself as a consistent or significant asset in fantasy football. Despite his uneven performance, his name alone still commands considerable dynasty value. Much like Marquise Brown, Jeudy’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish the 2024 season as a top-25 wide receiver, a feat he has accomplished only once. While there is still a chance for a turnaround, we now have a grounded assessment of Jeudy’s realistic abilities. Expecting him to fulfill his collegiate potential is likely overly optimistic. Thus, it is probably wise to contemplate trading Jeudy before the season begins, even if it is just for the promise of a future second-round pick.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (24.2 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025), 4 yr(s) / $4,343,916
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo? Just as Juliet questioned Romeo’s whereabouts, we have spent the entire offseason eagerly searching for clues about who might emerge as the Green Bay Packers‘ WR1 in 2024. Due to a breakout rookie season from Jayden Reed and the continued presence of the super-athlete Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs has been largely overlooked by the fantasy community heading into the 2024 season. Even Dontayvion Wicks has generated more buzz than Doubs this summer, despite seeing much less playing time and production the previous year. Just to be clear, this is not a criticism of Wicks in any way, for all of his many truthers who may be reading this.
So, what did Doubs do to deserve this kind of negative treatment? In his sophomore campaign, he nearly racked up 700 receiving yards and scored eight touchdowns, following an impressive rookie season. As a fourth-round pick from the University of Nevada, dynasty managers who took a late-round flyer on him have been more than pleased with the returns. Doubs has been highly productive, especially as a touchdown scorer, and is currently linked to a brilliant head coach and one of the league’s more exciting young quarterbacks in Jordan Love. Despite these positives, the 2024 season is crucial for Doubs as he enters his third year in the NFL, facing fierce competition for playing time and opportunities. Will Doubs continue to shine in the Badger State, or will he be overshadowed by the other receivers on the roster and expire like old cheese? Let’s dive in.
| PLAYER | TARGETS | GP | TARGETS/GAME |
| Romeo Doubs | 96 | 17 | 5.65 |
| Jayden Reed | 94 | 16 | 5.88 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 58 | 15 | 3.87 |
| Christian Watson | 53 | 9 | 5.89 |
While it is significant to point out that he played all 17 games last season, Doubs led the team with 96 targets. However, he still trailed both Watson and Reed in targets per game. Wicks and Bo Melton also posted impressive metrics in limited playing time, particularly in targets and yards per route run, suggesting they could see increased roles in the upcoming season. Additionally, tight end Luke Musgrave, who missed six games last season, could demand more opportunities in year two. Despite these developments, Doubs had an impressive 2023 season that should not be ignored. He was the primary end-zone target for Love, with 15 end-zone targets, tied for the sixth most in the NFL. While touchdown production can fluctuate from year to year, Doubs profiles as a consistent touchdown scorer and has a strong connection with his quarterback in scoring situations. It is also crucial to consider the offense’s performance in the playoffs, an aspect often overlooked in fantasy football. In two playoff games, Doubs totaled 234 receiving yards, while Reed saw very few opportunities. Although these stats should not be overly scrutinized, it is at least promising that Doubs was the go-to target in the team’s most important games of the year.
A healthy Christian Watson, an ascending Dontayvion Wicks, and the continued emergence of Jayden Reed might cause concern for Doubs’ stakeholders, but there are ample reasons to believe he can remain highly productive. Despite these potential challenges, Doubs has totaled nearly 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his first two seasons with Green Bay and has developed clear chemistry with Love. Though he might lack some of the physical traits of the other receivers, he is also a more complete football player. At just 24 years old, Doubs is a bit of a veteran in this receiver room, a status that is both valuable and somewhat comical.
Doubs will need to continue raising the bar with his play to remain a top target and secure his future with the team. Ultimately, he must fend off Wicks and maintain his role as a regular starter throughout the season. After finishing as WR37 last season, Doubs’ dynasty ultimatum for this year is to finish inside the top 35 at his position. While he might never be a star wide receiver, he has proven to be a valuable fantasy asset, despite falling under the radar. Given the attention the other Green Bay receivers are generating this offseason, Doubs is a perfect buy-low candidate. He can be a sneaky asset for your flex spot or an excellent depth piece for a championship-bound dynasty team. There is also a possibility that Doubs surpasses his current perceived potential and experiences a true breakout in his third season.