2024 Dynasty Ultimatums: 5 TEs Entering Make-or-Break Fantasy Seasons
Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Last season, we introduced this series to spotlight players on the brink of pivotal fantasy seasons, providing insights into their future dynasty outlooks. Reflecting on last year’s article, only one of the tight ends we highlighted experienced a continued decline, resulting in a lackluster fantasy campaign that significantly diminished their dynasty stock. Conversely, a few players surpassed expectations, elevating their dynasty value to new heights.
In our 2023 analysis, we focused on Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, and Jake Ferguson. Of these players, only Kmet and Ferguson successfully met their performance requirements. Kelce and Schultz, while just missing their targets, remain integral parts of elite offenses heading into 2024. Meanwhile, Waller, after another injury-plagued season, shocked the world by announcing an early retirement from football this summer, potentially to pursue a rap career.
As the 2024 NFL season looms, it raises numerous questions about the future of several prominent players. For dynasty managers, maintaining grounded expectations for these polarizing players is paramount. While it is challenging to reconsider players once highly touted, establishing dynasty ultimatums can aid in more efficient and strategic roster management. In this article, we dig into controversial tight ends poised for pivotal seasons, detailing the benchmarks they must reach to align with current expectations.
Check out the first three articles from this series, featuring quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (23.8 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2021-2025), 4 yr(s) / $32,910,495
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Kyle Pitts‘ dynasty value in fantasy football is akin to the allure of Bitcoin in the financial world. Both have generated immense hype and excitement, fueled by their potential to revolutionize their respective fields. Yet, much like Bitcoin’s roller-coaster journey with fluctuating prices and unmet expectations of becoming the dominant global currency, Pitts’ performance has so far been inconsistent, leaving dynasty managers waiting for the breakout season that cements his status as an elite asset. Despite the ups and downs, the promise and potential keep both Pitts and Bitcoin in the spotlight, captivating investors and managers alike.
With that said, Pitts did have a highly impressive rookie year back in 2021, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards and becoming the first tight end since Mike Ditka in 1961 to achieve this milestone. Despite this remarkable achievement, his fantasy points total was nearly 54 points less than what Sam LaPorta recorded last season during his historic rookie campaign. Pitts finished as the TE7 in his rookie year but has struggled to replicate that success in the following two seasons. Despite playing only 10 games last season, Mark Andrews outscored Pitts by 2.1 fantasy points. Pitts was active in every game of the season for the Falcons and only managed to finish the year as the TE14 in total points. Due to this, some may question whether Pitts is truly the revolutionary prospect he was touted to be, but his mixed bag of injuries and a carousel of underperforming quarterbacks have undoubtedly contributed to his underwhelming performance.
Nonetheless, Pitts has shown flashes of his immense potential, displaying elite athleticism with crisp routes and jaw-dropping speed for his size. Surprisingly, Pitts led all tight ends in air yards last season with 1,029 yards and had the highest average depth of target (aDOT) among relevant tight ends at 11.37. However, his longest play was only 39 yards, whereas his teammate Jonnu Smith had two plays exceeding 50 yards. Thank you, and good riddance, Arthur Smith. As we head into the 2024 season, Atlanta has made significant changes, including parting ways with both Smiths and bringing in substantial talent across the board. These changes could finally provide the environment needed to maximize Pitts’ potential.
Of all the changes Atlanta made this offseason, none is more significant for Pitts’ fantasy upside in 2024 than the addition of Kirk Cousins. After enduring a series of underwhelming quarterbacks early in his career, Pitts will now benefit from Cousins’ experience and proven track record of supporting elite fantasy production for his receivers. Despite Cousins’ age and his recent recovery from a major injury, expectations for this offense should be significantly heightened with him at the helm. With Drake London and Bijan Robinson as the primary competition for targets, Pitts should be poised to become a focal point in the offensive strategy most weeks.
The Falcons also brought in Head Coach Raheem Morris and Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson, who are expected to implement a system similar to the fantasy-friendly offense of the Los Angeles Rams. This development has dynasty managers and stakeholders eagerly anticipating the potential impact on Atlanta’s young trio. Pitts now has the pieces in place to fulfill his immense potential, but he must seize the moment and prove he is the talent everyone expects him to be. With new coaching and a reliable quarterback, it appears to be a new chapter for the Atlanta Falcons.
However, as we look forward to moving past several disappointing seasons since the end of the Matt Ryan era, we must remain cautious due to potential obstacles that could still arise for this fragile and unproven offense. Given his lofty expectations as a premier asset at the tight end position without yet having the production to match, Pitts’ dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-five tight end in 2024. This would mark a significant improvement from his last two seasons and even his impressive rookie campaign. Pitts should benefit from the best quarterback play of his career and the experience he has gained over his first three professional years.
Although I have some doubts about whether Pitts can meet this lofty goal, he is still only 23 years old (younger than some of the prospects in the 2024 class) and remains one of the most freakishly athletic tight end prospects ever. If he can finally have a true breakout season, he will solidify his status as a top-five player at his position for dynasty leagues, with a bright future ahead as Michael Penix Jr. waits to succeed Cousins after his tenure with the team ends. The upcoming season is crucial for Pitts to demonstrate his true capabilities and justify the high expectations placed upon him. With the right support and development, Pitts could become a cornerstone of the Falcons’ offense for years to come. However, if the stars do not align this season and Pitts disappoints yet again, it may be time to reconsider whether he will ever truly attain elite status at his position.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (29.5 y.o.)
Current Contract: Extension (2021-2025), 4 yr(s) / $57,000,000
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
He might play in Philadelphia and his first name might be Dallas, but Houston, we have a problem. Once poised to become one of the league’s most promising tight ends, Dallas Goedert has been losing steam in recent seasons. As the successor to Zach Ertz, who had several elite fantasy seasons with the Eagles, Goedert has yet to emerge as the prominent fantasy asset many expected. Nevertheless, he has finished as a TE1 (top-12 at the position) several times throughout his career.
While he has not reached his perceived ceiling for fantasy purposes, Goedert has still proven to be a valuable asset at the position. However, he is coming off a very disappointing season where he finished as the TE14 in total points and averaged only 7.6 fantasy points per game. This is a significant drop from his average of 9.3 fantasy points per game over the previous two seasons. Now approaching 30 years old, the 2024 season looms large for Goedert. It will be telling whether he can get his career back on track and continue to be a backend starting tight end for dynasty teams, or if he is experiencing a performance decline that will make him an afterthought for lineups moving forward.
Focusing on the metrics that signal a decline in performance for Goedert, the veteran tight end averaged a career-low 10.0 yards per catch while also seeing his aDOT drop to 5.3 last season, continuing a two-year downward trend. He was equally unimpressive with the ball in his hands, as his average yards after the catch (5.3) decreased by 1.9 yards compared to the previous season. His 592 receiving yards were his lowest since 2020, and his per-game average of 42.3 yards was his worst since 2019. Additionally, despite his large frame, he scored exactly three touchdowns for the third time in the last four years, highlighting a consistent struggle to find the end zone.
The team’s passing game continues to be dominated by AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the Eagles remain one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league, led by the rushing abilities of Jalen Hurts. Over the past two seasons, Hurts ranks in the top five for most rushing attempts by a quarterback in NFL history and has had double-digit rushing touchdowns for three consecutive seasons. Notably, 14 of his 23 passing touchdowns last season went to Brown or Smith, emphasizing their primary roles in the offense. Due to these factors, although the high-powered Philadelphia offense might seem appealing, Goedert’s opportunities for scoring are so limited that his contributions often fail to make a significant impact. As a result, his fantasy value has taken a hit, and dynasty managers are left wondering if he can regain his form or if this decline will continue.
Even in what was ultimately a down year for him, the 2023 season featured some standout performances from Goedert. He finished inside the top five at his position three times, including a stellar Week 5 showing where he caught eight of nine targets for 117 yards and a touchdown, earning 21.7 fantasy points and ranking as the TE2 for the week. As expected, Goedert was more productive when given ample opportunities. However, his role in the offense frequently dwindled in game scripts where his offensive skills were not required to secure a win. This was most evident in Week 1 of last season when he had zero receptions on only one target despite being on the field for 92% of snaps. Nevertheless, Goedert set a career high with 59 receptions and was only four targets short of his previous best, despite missing three games due to injury. These flashes of high performance indicate that when given the chance, Goedert can still be a valuable asset. As the 2024 season approaches, it remains crucial for the Eagles to find a consistent way to involve him in their game plan to maximize his fantasy potential and upside.
With Brown and Smith signing massive extensions, Goedert’s chances of becoming a top asset at his position seem slim. The addition of Saquon Barkley further complicates matters for the veteran tight end, potentially reducing his share of opportunities compared to last season. Although Goedert finished as TE11 in 2022 and TE10 in 2021, he now appears to be fourth in the pecking order in this loaded offense. His dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2024, proving that his role remains significant despite the numerous obstacles he is expected to face. Given the crowded offense, Goedert is likely to be a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks, which is concerning considering his recent touchdown totals. Therefore, it might be wise to trade the aging tight end while his name value is still decent. In return, target a player who, though perhaps less established, has a clearer path to more opportunities at the position.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks (26.7 y.o.)
Current Contract: Free Agent (2024-2025), 2 yr(s) / $27,000,000
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Noah Fant remains a highly athletic option at the tight end position and has shown flashes of his potential throughout his NFL career. However, he has yet to fully earn the nickname “Noah Fantastic.” After consecutive seasons finishing as a TE1 in Denver following his rookie debut, Fant’s production has been underwhelming with the Seattle Seahawks. Despite not living up to his first-round draft capital in his first five NFL seasons, there are reasons to believe he could turn things around in Seattle and have a breakout season in 2024.
Evaluating tight ends in the NFL can be challenging due to the unpredictability of their development from college to the pros. While immediate rookie breakouts like Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid are ideal, some players take longer to develop. What you cannot teach is size and athleticism, two areas where Fant excels. Despite seeming older, Fant is just 26 years old and entering the prime of his career. According to Marvin Elequin’s article “The Lifecycle of a Dynasty Tight End,” most tight ends tend to have their best season between the ages of 25 and 28. Additionally, unlike running backs and wide receivers, tight ends often peak in their 30s. Given this, it is reasonable to hold out hope that Fant can evolve into a much greater fantasy asset than he has shown thus far in his career.
So we now know that Fant falls into the age range where tight ends often experience a breakout, aided by his tremendous athletic profile and high draft capital. Now, let’s focus on the supporting developments that could make the 2024 season different from his previous two in Seattle. First, his importance to the team is evident with his new two-year, $21 million contract, which includes $11.5 million guaranteed. This significant investment indicates Seattle’s commitment to Fant moving forward. This trust from Seattle is notable, especially since Fant is coming off his least productive season since entering the NFL. Despite playing in all 17 games, he barely surpassed 400 receiving yards and did not score a single touchdown.
However, the Seahawks’ decision to part ways with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, who combined for over 400 yards and three touchdowns last season, is significant. Their replacements, blocking tight end Pharaoh Brown and fourth-round pick AJ Barner, should not threaten Fant’s offensive opportunities anytime soon. Additionally, Seattle is undergoing a coaching change in 2024, which could be exciting for Fant’s dynasty outlook. The team hired Head Coach Mike Macdonald and Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb to rejuvenate the offense. Grubb’s spread-out, 11-personnel approach could be a great fit for Fant, providing more opportunities. Despite his lack of production, Fant quietly ranks fourth in yards per target among all tight ends over the last two seasons, a statistic that suggests better days ahead for the young tight end as he looks to turn the page to a new chapter in his career.
Everything appears to be in place for Fant to rejuvenate his career in 2024. The table is set, the food is ready, and there is no one in the tight end room that is threatening enough to steal his meal. Now, all Fant has to do is dig in. Despite the promising situation, it is up to Fant to prove he possesses the talent and potential to take the next step in his career and become a valuable dynasty asset. Due to this, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-12 tight end in 2024, a feat he has not achieved since 2021.
Fant will still need to compete for targets with a talented wide receiver room featuring DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. However, with the tight end position now fully his, he should be able to carve out a significant role in the offense and get his career back on track. This makes Fant a prime buy-low candidate, with the potential for an immediate return on investment in the upcoming season. Although it is highly unlikely that he will match David Njoku’s production from last year, it is worth noting that Njoku’s first six years in the NFL were similarly underwhelming before he broke out last season. When elite athleticism finally meets ample opportunities, it often aligns lucratively in fantasy football.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (24.9 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025), 4 yr(s) / $4,164,340
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
While we were eagerly waiting for him to get chiggy with it, Chig Okonkwo fell short of expectations as a breakout candidate last season. After leading the NFL in yards per route run in 2022 and showcasing elite speed for his position, Okonkwo did little for the Titans’ offense last year, finishing as TE21 with just over 500 yards and one touchdown. On the bright side, at least he was more productive than Noah Fant. Despite his disappointing season, Okonkwo is still under 25 years old and has a couple of years left on his rookie deal. While there are as many obstacles as there are opportunities for a bounce-back season, Okonkwo’s tremendous athleticism and potential as a vertical threat make him an intriguing prospect for fantasy football if he can secure a significant role in the offense.
The Tennessee Titans‘ offense is undergoing a major transformation as they search for a new identity without Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. This shift began last season when the team handed the reins to Will Levis, who started strong but cooled off towards the end of the season, leaving questions about his true potential. Despite this uncertainty, there is no denying that Levis has a cannon for an arm and is not afraid to use it. This aggressive style of play could benefit Okonkwo if they can establish strong chemistry and Levis provides him with ample opportunities. However, Okonkwo faces significant competition for targets in a traditionally run-heavy offense. The presence of veteran wide receivers Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd, who all project to command significant targets, makes it easy to envision Okonkwo being overshadowed most weeks. For Okonkwo to thrive, he will need to carve out a clear role and capitalize on the opportunities that come his way.
In addition to dealing with an inexperienced quarterback and increased competition for targets, Okonkwo will now be playing for a coaching staff that did not draft him. Following consecutive losing seasons, the Tennessee Titans parted ways with Head Coach Mike Vrabel and brought in new staff to get the team back on track. His replacement, Brian Callahan, previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals, where he built an impressive track record with a high-powered offense. While the Titans lack the star power of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, Callahan and his staff are expected to enhance the team’s offensive strategy. Callahan has traditionally emphasized a vertical passing game, which could benefit Okonkwo. However, there is a risk that this new coaching staff might view Okonkwo as a placeholder for a future tight end they select themselves, given that he was not a selection made during their regime.
The future for Okonkwo is uncertain and could go in two directions. On one hand, he could have a breakout season, proving his worth to the new coaching staff and securing his future with the organization. On the other hand, he might have another unproductive season, falling out of the team’s plans and becoming yet another player whose impressive athletic profile never translated into valuable production. Given the several obstacles discussed, Okonkwo’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 tight end in 2024. While a top-12 finish would be ideal, his back-to-back finishes outside the top-20 make the top-15 goal seem more realistically achievable.
To reach this goal, Okonkwo will need to increase his touchdown production. If he had scored just four more touchdowns last season, he would have matched Kyle Pitts in fantasy points. The Titans scored only 14 passing touchdowns, with 14% of them thrown by Derrick Henry. Assuming this number increases in 2024, Okonkwo could benefit from these additional opportunities. With 43% of the team’s passing touchdowns from last season now vacated, there is a good chance for positive touchdown regression. The 2024 season is crucial for Okonkwo’s dynasty outlook moving forward. Given his age and athletic profile, acquiring him at a low cost could be a low-risk move with potentially high rewards.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos (24.3 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025), 4 yr(s) / $5,259,139
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Rob Carr/Getty Images
While Greg Dulcich certainly passes the tight end vibe checklist with his gnarly locks and exquisite mustache, his production has fallen a bit short of expectations in his first two NFL seasons. During his tenure with the Denver Broncos, Dulcich has managed to play in only 12 out of a possible 34 games due to various injuries, including just two this past season. Consequently, he has recorded only 36 catches on 59 targets for 436 receiving yards and two touchdowns to begin his career. Despite being sidelined by three different hamstring injuries and a foot injury, it is important to remember how promising Dulcich looked as a rookie. In half of the games he played that year, he finished as a top-12 tight end. However, his promising start significantly raised his perceived dynasty value, and it will be challenging for him to regain his form and meet these elevated expectations after a year of being sidelined.
Rumored to fill the “joker role” in Sean Payton’s offense last year, injuries prevented Dulcich from taking the field and demonstrating his potential to excel in this pivotal role. Payton spoke highly of Dulcich prior to last season, but it remains to be seen if those beliefs still hold. Dulcich will compete with Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull for playing time in the tight end room. While Trautman is projected to have more of a blocking role and Krull, despite some offseason buzz, does not match Dulcich’s offensive potential, both could vie for opportunities that might hinder Dulcich’s progress. Due to this, Dulcich needs to prove he can stay healthy and demonstrate that his presence on the field is more valuable to the offense than the other options. This task is daunting, especially with Denver projected to have rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm for most of the season. Nix is expected to face typical rookie struggles, which could make it challenging for Dulcich to get his career back on track. However, Dulcich could also serve as a reliable safety valve for his rookie quarterback, leveraging his dangerous after-the-catch abilities.
With two seasons under his belt, Dulcich has two more years left on his rookie deal. While this gives him a couple more opportunities to prove his worth for his next contract with the Broncos, dynasty managers are typically less patient. Therefore, we want to see Dulcich take a significant step forward in 2024 while putting his injury history behind him. Rather than expecting him to finish as a TE1 this upcoming season, we will generously lower expectations due to having a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. Instead, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 tight end in 2024 without any further injury setbacks.
Dulcich is currently a “post-hype sleeper” who has already shown the potential to awaken from his slumber and make an impact in the league. Similar to Chig Okonkwo and Noah Fant, Dulcich is worth considering in dynasty trades due to his currently lowered cost and the potential he displayed in his rookie year. The 2024 season will be very telling for how we should value this young tight end in dynasty leagues moving forward.
Looking for more info on TEs? Here are “25 TE Statistics From the 2023 Season” to help jog your memory for the season ahead!