2023 1st Round Prospects & Their Dynasty Range of Outcomes (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to our Dynasty Range Outcomes series where we will use historical data to break down some of the top prospects in the 2023 class. If you have not already checked out the series primer, be sure to give it a read. In that article, I outline the methodology and the data points for our analysis – which include:
- Draft Capital
- Career Production
- Declare Status
- Weight
By using these data points, we can compile a list of players that have entered the league with a similar profile for each prospect. And by analyzing their similarities, we can project each player’s range of outcomes. For this first article, I wanted to mainly focus on the top first-round prospects in this class.
Quick Note: You will notice, however, that Jahmyr Gibbs did not make the article. Because of the uniqueness of his profile, I could not find a single player drafted in the first round that mirrored his size, production, and efficiency. The closest comp I could have come up with was a less productive version of Christian McCaffrey. As a result, I purposely omitted him from this article. Regardless, as an early declare, first-round prospect, you should feel very confident in Gibbs’ dynasty outlook.
Data Source: All metrics used in this article were sourced from cfbfastR, dating back to 2010 for wide receivers and 2013 for tight ends and running backs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks, WR
- Draft Capital: 1.20
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 196 pounds
- Career: 2.14 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Thresholds:
- Draft Capital: 1st Round
- Declare Status: Early-Declare
- Weight: 186 to 206*
- Career: 1.82 – 2.46 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is considered by many as the WR1 of this class after a productive collegiate career at Ohio State. Naturally, what defined his career was his elite sophomore campaign in 2021, totaling over 1,600 yards, 95 receptions, and averaging 3.25 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. As a result, when we take a look at his closest comps dating back to 2010, we arrive at a fairly successful group led by Brandin Cooks and Calvin Ridley.
Keep in mind, both Cooks and Ridley entered their careers playing alongside established veterans. Ridley played alongside Julio Jones, while Cooks entered a receiving room led by Kenny Stills, Marques Colston, and Jimmy Graham. Smith-Njigba finds himself in a similar situation with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as the established veterans in Seattle. However, similar to Cooks and Ridley, I expect the cream to rise to the top as JSN should find ways to contribute sooner rather than later. On the lower end of outcomes, JSN’s other comps are Nelson Agholor and Will Fuller. And while both players were mostly flex-level wide receivers for most of their careers, keep in mind that Fuller was the WR5 in points per game in 2020 before his suspension. Unfortunately, several injuries derailed Fuller’s career after his breakout campaign. So while there is a possibility that JSN is nothing more than a WR3 (similar to Agholor), the other players on this list give us hope that he could produce WR1 numbers at some point in his career.
Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings, WR
- Draft Capital: 1.23
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 173 pounds
- Career: 2.42 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Thresholds:
- Draft Capital: 1st Round
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 163 to 183*
- Career: 2.06 – 2.78 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size
We have only seen a handful of wide receivers drafted in the first round with the height and weight of Jordan Addison. However, just because the sample size is smaller does not indicate that they are less likely to succeed. Tim Alb from Campus 2 Canton breaks this down in an article highlighting the correlation between size and NFL production for wide receivers.
While his size deviates from the traditional big-bodied wide receiver, Addison checks several boxes from a production standpoint. In fact, he never had a season below a 25% receiving yards market share, operating as a focal point for both Pittsburgh and USC. As a result, it should not shock anyone that he comps so closely to Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams, two receivers who dominated at various points in their collegiate careers. And while Williams is still an enigma for dynasty managers after missing most of his rookie year, Wilson’s upside was on full display as he averaged an impressive 25% target share for the Jets last season. Keep in mind, Addison is arguably in a better landing spot as the Vikings ranked 7th in the league in neutral situation passing rate (57.1%) last season. In addition, while Wilson was receiving passes from Zach Wilson and Mike White, Addison will have a much more accurate quarterback in Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. In other words, I fully expect Addison to make an immediate impact opposite of Justin Jefferson this season.
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers, WR
- Draft Capital: 1.21
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 208 pounds
- Career: 2.55 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Thresholds:
- Draft Capital: 1st Round
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 203 to 213
- Career: 2.17 – 2.93 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
If you drafted either Josh Doctson or Jalen Reagor a couple of seasons ago, I understand if that may have left a sour taste in your mouth. However, not every TCU wide receiver is created equal. In fact, I would argue Johnston is leaps and bounds ahead of his predecessors. As you can see in the tweet below, Reagor and Doctson finished their careers with a sub 2.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt while Johnston finished nearly 30% to 40% higher in that metric. As a result, his comps paint a much more positive picture.
The first comp is Sammy Watkins, who many view as a slight disappointment for fantasy football considering he entered the league with Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Odell Beckham. However, he still provided dynasty managers with multiple top-36 seasons, including a WR10 finish in points per game in his second campaign. On the other hand, A.J. Green was much more consistent, producing multiple WR1 campaigns in his 11-year career. With these two players in mind, Johnston’s range of outcomes seems fairly safe. At the very least, he should be a flex-level receiver, with the upside to be an elite WR1 for dynasty managers. Keep in mind, both Mike Williams’ and Keenan Allen’s contracts are non-guaranteed after 2023, paving a clear path for Johnston to become Justin Herberts’ WR1.
If you're hesitant to draft another TCU Wide Receiver for your dynasty team, don't overthink it
Quentin Johnston >>> Doctson & Reagor
Johnston has a much better production profile & is one of only 3 WRs in this class projected in the +90th percentile in my model (~70% hit rate) pic.twitter.com/Czogf0iIEK
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) March 19, 2023
Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons, RB
- Draft Capital: 1.08
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 215 pounds
- Career: 1.97 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play
Thresholds:
- Draft Capital: 1st Round
- Declare Status: Early Declare
- Weight: 205 to 225*
- Career: 1.67 – 2.26 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play
*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size
Robinson enters the league with one of the most accomplished prospect profiles since Saquon Barkley, checking every box we look for in an elite running back. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that Bijan’s prospect comps are two running backs who were immediate difference-makers in fantasy football. The first running back on the list is Todd Gurley, who was one of the most dominant running backs in his first four years in the league. Many will remember his two-year run from 2017 to 2018 when he averaged 23.9 half-PPR points per game while finishing as the overall RB1 in back-to-back seasons. Unfortunately, his career ended far too soon due to a variety of knee injuries. Ezekiel Elliott, on the other hand, never peaked as high as Gurley but was much more productive with age. After starting his career with four-straight RB1 campaigns, Zeke remained productive well into his second contract as he continued to average top-24 numbers in his final three years with Dallas.
So what does this tell us about Bijan’s career arc? First-round running backs with his draft profile are some of the safest investments in dynasty football. Therefore, I fully expect him to become the focal point of the Falcons’ offense, likely vaulting him into RB1 production as soon as this season. And barring an injury, Bijan should contend for RB1 status every single year for the foreseeable future. One thing to keep in mind, however, is the longevity of a running back’s career as we have seen both Gurley and Zeke decline right around their fifth season in the league. And while that is still many years away, it is something dynasty managers need to remember if they want to trade Bijan before his value declines. For now, he should be a cornerstone for your dynasty teams over the next several years.
Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills, TE
- Draft Capital: 1.25
- Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
- Weight: 246 pounds
- Career: 1.62 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt
Thresholds:
- Draft Capital: 1st Round
- Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
- Weight: 241 to 251
- Career: 1.29 – 1.94 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt*
*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size
Dalton Kincaid could not have landed in a better situation, joining Josh Allen and a Buffalo Bills offense that ranked 4th in the league in neutral situation passing rate in 2022. While it is easy to get excited about his potential in this offense, we need to remember that tight ends rarely break out in their first season. Historically, a majority of breakouts occur in years two and three. For a more detailed breakdown, I wrote an article titled Anticipating the Tight End Breakout that covers this exact topic. With that being said, Kincaid is highly likely to produce at least one TE1 campaign over the next three seasons, especially if he is leveraged as a slot receiver in the Bills’ offense.
As for his prospect comps, Hayden Hurst stands out as the least productive of the group, failing to produce a TE1 season in his five years in the league. On the other hand, Tyler Eifert and OJ Howard highlight the upside that Kincaid could have in the NFL. Keep in mind, Eifert was an outstanding prospect coming out of Notre Dame, finishing as a top-four tight end in points per game in both 2015 and 2016. Unfortunately, injuries robbed us of a potentially elite career as Eifert never regained his form after his 2016 campaign. Similarly, Howard was a highly touted prospect coming out of Alabama. In his second with the Buccaneers, he finished as the TE5 in points per game before an ankle injury ended his second season early. In addition, he was on his way to another TE1 campaign in 2020 when he suffered an Achilles tear in Week 4. Unfortunately, the common theme among Kincaid’s top two player comps is that they had tremendous upside before suffering career-altering injuries. If he can remain healthy, dynasty managers should feel very confident in Kincaid’s upside as he should immediately slot in as one of Allen’s top three targets.