Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown for Week 9
Week 9 kicks off with an intriguing game between the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers and the 5-2 Green Bay Packers with the Packers currently sitting as 5.5 point favorites on the road in San Francisco. The line opened at 2.5 in favorite of the road team, but there’s massive injury fallout for the 49ers, making the Packers the heavy favorites…more on that soon. This game features a 50.5 over/under with a 28 point implied total for the Pack and a 22.5 point total for the home underdogs. Before we break down the top plays on the slate, let’s break down some advanced statistics as well as the injury report on both sides of the ball.
Team Pace and Efficiency Metrics
Pace of Play: GB: 32nd , SF: 7th
Total Plays Per Game: GB: 19th, SF: 14th
Pass Defense DVOA: GB: 22nd, 17th
Run Defense DVOA: GB: 25th, SF: 7th
Pass Offense DVOA: GB: 4th, SF: 16th
Run Defense DVOA: GB: 9th, SF: 6th
Easiest Matchup (Fantasy Points Allowed): GB: QB (20th) , SF: RB (1st)
Most Difficult Matchup (Fantasy Points Allowed): GB: RB (32nd), SF: TE (29th)
Injury Report
Packers
OUT: Jamaal Williams & AJ Dillon (Covid-19), Allen Lazard (IR)
Projected Out: Kevin King, Aaron Jones
49ers
OUT: George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Trent Williams
Projected Out: Jaquiski Tartt, Jordan Reed (IR – designated to return)
Captain Spot Choices
Before we choose our captain, it’s important to understand that pricing will be very forgiving on this slate, given the insane number of injuries that are affecting DraftKings pricing this week. As a result, we should be willing to spend up at captain as there is plenty of salary relief towards the bottom of the player pool.
Davante Adams $18,600
Adams will be the most popular play on the entire slate, and rightly so. He’s played four games from start to finish so far this season, and in those four games, he’s averaging 14 targets per game. You don’t need me to tell you that’s he’s a top 5 WR in the league, and if we can project him for double digit targets, he could easily break the slate. Adams’ 7 targets from inside the 10-yard line is tied for 3rd most in the NFL, yet he’s missed two games and left early from one. His usage around the goal line provides a massive ceiling here for Adams to be the odds on favorite to be the captain that shows up in optimal lineups.
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