NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 10, I’ve sorted by team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, EPA metrics and factor that for a final GPS score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
There are a number of reasons to be bullish (or bill-ish) on this game. The Colts rank #1 in neutral pace and their defense is willing to give it up through the air. The Bills, on the other hand, have upped their pass rate from 49% for the first six weeks to 60% over the last three. The overall play volume of each team is the only concern as Buffalo (29th) and Indianapolis (28th) look weak in that category. However, if we focus solely on the first three Joe Flacco starts, they rank 7th overall. Last week’s debacle on Sunday night is a warning sign that the bottom can fall out for Flacco and company. Regardless, you know the upside is there when the world counts him out. It’s DFS baby!
A key matchup to zoom in on is the Bills offensive line. They rank #2 in Adjusted Line Yards and #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate giving Josh Allen ample time in the pocket. He has produced the 4th-most total EPA against the blitz among qualified quarterbacks this season. Against man blitzes, Allen has completed 27 of his 50 pass attempts for a league-high 448 yards and 11 touchdowns. Why do we care? The Colts have generated the 4th-highest rate (49.3%) of blitzes using man coverage. Despite being on the road, it is a great matchup for both Allen and RB James Cook. You can use the all-purpose back as a bring back from IND stacks or skinny stack Allen with a number of options. Keon Coleman looks like he might miss but I’m into Khalil Shakir or Amari Cooper this week. The Colts run the 4th highest rate of Cover-3 in the NFL, over 40% of the time. Shakir leads the team in receiving yards versus the look and Cooper, historically, has been a killer so rolling the dice on a low-rostered player hopefully healthy is where my head is at. James Cook is more of a bring back in my opinion against a Colts rush defense that ranks 5th in EPA per rush attempt. He can be stacked with Allen but he’s also a great wipeout option if you think this game hits the under.
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